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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10  (Read 1109 times)
BundouYMB
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« on: November 25, 2018, 03:02:48 pm »

Hyde-Smith 54%
Espy 44%
Undecided 1%

Link: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2018/11/25/rrh-elections-mississippi-senate-runoff-poll-cindy-hyde-smith-r-leads-mike-espy-d-54-44/
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2018, 03:05:57 pm »

Before the hot takes arrive: the fact a Democrat can achieve 44+% in a midterm runoff election in MS with unexceptional black turnout is actually very encouraging to me. If there was some way to juice black turnout to match their share of the population then MS could well be a swing state, which is crazy to think about.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2018, 09:21:39 pm »

The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.

Yep, if anything this looks like turnout differentials.

Img


Still, -10 is a pretty damn good result for a Democrat in Mississippi, especially when the Democrat is black and going against an incumbent Senator. -10 was what popular white former governor Unbeatable Titan Ronnie Musgrove got with sky high black turnout thanks to Obama in 2008. And Wicker just won by 19 points a few weeks ago.

But yeah, obviously there is zero chance Espy wins, as was true from the very beginning and never changed. The only curiosity will be to see if it is a single digit loss or a double digit loss.

That "turnout differential" is really just a less-than-usual turnout advantage for Republicans, rather than a turnout advantage for Democrats. This poll still only has a 32% black electorate. Blacks are 38% of Mississippi's population. There's a lot more potential upside there for Democrats in the future.

My takeaway, if Hyde-Smith really does win by 10~, will be that while a Democrat winning a Senate seat in MS is probably impossible under normal circumstances in 2018 it could happen not too far in the future. And I think the gubernatorial race next year will be very competitive.
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