Russia seizes Ukrainian ships near Crimea after firing at them

[ag]

Yep. Probably, not, yet, be the incident WWIII starts with. But might, actually, be.

[ag]

I refuse to believe that humanity is so pathetic that this could cause a world war.

If not this, then something similar within the next few months, or a couple of years at the most. We are living on borrowed time.

[ag]

I refuse to believe that humanity is so pathetic that this could cause a world war.

If not this, then something similar within the next few months, or a couple of years at the most. We are living on borrowed time.

It doesn't mean we are living on "borrowed time" just because all your previous bad predictions didn't come true.  Perhaps your ideas and biases suck?

Perhaps.

[ag]

If it didn't start when Russians marched into the Crimea, it's not going to start over a tugboat.

No one is willing to stick out their neck out "all the way" for Ukraine. Maybe if Russia full on invaded, but they are not that dumb either.

Russians get a few victories, China gets a few victories, NATO gets a few victories, and the cycle keeps going on.

I fail to understand the fact that some people legitimately think that any of the top current powers are dumb enough to start WW3 that ends in Nuclear winter.

It will not happen because somebody wants to start a nuclear WW3 - obviously, nobody does. It will happen because at some point somebody is going to miscalculate just a tiny bit. The situation is extremely unstable. Any minor thing can end badly. So badly, in fact, none of us will be there to see how it ends.

[ag]

You are not aware of political situation in Ukraine. President poroshenko is very unpopular and has no chances to be reelected in March 2019. This  conflict allows him improving his rating and postpone the election as no election is possible under martial law that he has imposed.

I am very much aware of the political situation in Ukraine. Will you feel better if the ICBMs start flying with Mr. Poroshenko still in office, or already out of it?

[ag]

On the other side, Russia's Putin is also interested in improving his rating that has fallen to 30% of  late. If he displays resolution and toughness during the conflict he is sure to gain some popularity. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia will escalate as it is in the interests of both rulers. Here much depends on Trump's position.

You can be sure he will choose the wrong one. Most likely, he will encourage Mr. Putin to "be strong"

[ag]

You can be sure he will choose the wrong one. Most likely, he will encourage Mr. Putin to "be strong"

If Trump orders American fleet to enter the Azov sea, which Russia considers its pocket sea, the war is inevitable.

It is even more inevitable if he sends a letter of congratulations for the great victory over the Ukrainians.

[ag]

You can be sure he will choose the wrong one. Most likely, he will encourage Mr. Putin to "be strong"

If Trump orders American fleet to enter the Azov sea, which Russia considers its pocket sea, the war is inevitable.

It is even more inevitable if he sends a letter of congratulations for the great victory over the Ukrainians.

[ag]

While nobody is likely to defend Ukraine, arguably it is entitled to consider itself free of any obligations under the non-proliferation regime. It certainly has the expertise to re-establish nuclear capacity and it should not be hindered by the powers that have failed as guarantors.

[ag]

While nobody is likely to defend Ukraine, arguably it is entitled to consider itself free of any obligations under the non-proliferation regime. It certainly has the expertise to re-establish nuclear capacity and it should not be hindered by the powers that have failed as guarantors.

Ukraine getting nukes is a great idea actually, since contrary to alarmists nukes prevent war. The reason the US and the Soviets were able to avoid war was the possibility of mutual destruction. A nuclear Ukraine could prevent a further escalation.

It is not at all a great idea, as Ukraine getting the nukes will likely lead the way to many other countries doing the same, and, eventually, they will be used.  But, under the circmstances, it may be better than the alternative.