Assuming these factors are set in stone for 2022...

[libertpaulian]

1. The COVID vaccines are safe and effective and enough of the population has been vaccinated;
2. COVID is no longer a pandemic;
3. People are no longer wearing masks or social distancing;
4. The economy comes roaring back;
5. We are not bogged down in any unpopular wars; and
6. There are no race riots

Which party does well in the midterms?

Is it a 2002 type scenario?  Is it 1994/2010 all over again?  Or is it a more neutral year like 1978?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

5 is very likely, 1-4 are plausible. 6 however is almost impossible. Rittenhouse will likely have been acquitted by that point and if even one of the officers in the floyd case walk(not Chauvin but the other three) there will be riots and dem Governors will likely twiddle their thumbs in fear of the woke mob and do nothing while property is stolen and burned. The ads write themselves
"Peoples homes were destroyed by looters, and Josh Shapiro did nothing to stop it."

[KaiserDave]

Republicans will do well, but perhaps less well than they could? Predicting 2022 is foolhardy in 2020.

[Pericles]

The weird thing about the 2018 wave was that it was during a period of peace and prosperity. It would make a lot more sense if the 2018 and 2020 environments were switched.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Democrats want to win the house they need another blue wave. Has a wave election ever happened for the incumbent party during a midterm recently?

[KaiserDave]

If Democrats want to win the house they need another blue wave. Has a wave election ever happened for the incumbent party during a midterm recently?

2002

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans have an ok year, but still not one akin to 2018 for Ds, though they would probably win both chambers of congress so in a way I guess it would be a worse year that results in a better result.

[MATTROSE94]

Even if Joe Biden has a 100% approval rating, the Republicans will still have a net gain of 4 Senate seats and 100 House seats.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Democrats want to win the house they need another blue wave. Has a wave election ever happened for the incumbent party during a midterm recently?

2002

I think that was more of a neutral year as republicans only gained 8 seats in the house which isn't much of a wave, but I guess it depends on how different people classify one.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Democrats want to win the house they need another blue wave. Has a wave election ever happened for the incumbent party during a midterm recently?

2002

Not entirely, a lot of those districts Republicans won were because of redistricting.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Democrats want to win the house they need another blue wave. Has a wave election ever happened for the incumbent party during a midterm recently?

2002

Not entirely, a lot of those districts Republicans won were because of redistricting.

Their margin went from a 0.5% Republican win to a 4.8% Republican win in the PV. I think this can be considered a slight Republican wave, even if it didn't actually lead to many pickups in the house

[Frenchrepublican]

On the paper 2018 should not have been a too bad year for republicans and you can say the same about 2014 concerning democrats as in both cases the economy was growing. The thing is that the most partisan voters, aka those who turn-out during midterms, don't care about the state of the economy and when the economy is doing well those who don't like the president anyway will simply give the credit to someone else (in 2018 most democrats gave the credit to Obama).

[Coldstream]

The republicans will take back the house, but it won’t be by much and the Democrats will have a shot at winning it back in 2024. Unless something goes badly wrong between now and then, which obviously could happen. The Democrats are starting from a much lower point than the ruling parties in 1994, 2010, 2018 etc so they’ve got less to lose.

[bagelman]

It's telling we haven't had a truly neutral midterm since Carter. However that's a possibility if Trump cultists remain hostile to the GOP for their irrational animalistic reasons, while the GOP is still able to get a small rally going. We could have a reverse 2018.

[Mr.Phips]

On the paper 2018 should not have been a too bad year for republicans and you can say the same about 2014 concerning democrats as in both cases the economy was growing. The thing is that the most partisan voters, aka those who turn-out during midterms, don't care about the state of the economy and when the economy is doing well those who don't like the president anyway will simply give the credit to someone else (in 2018 most democrats gave the credit to Obama).

What made 2018 as bad is it was for Republicans (mostly in the House) was the fact that Republicans had a trifecta that allowed them to overreach (i.e. getting rid of SALT and trying to repeal ACA).  Had Dems held the Senate, 2018 would likely have been quite a bit better for Republicans (less bad).

[KaiserDave]

Even if Joe Biden has a 100% approval rating, the Republicans will still have a net gain of 4 Senate seats and 100 House seats.

Just shut up

[libertpaulian]

On the paper 2018 should not have been a too bad year for republicans and you can say the same about 2014 concerning democrats as in both cases the economy was growing. The thing is that the most partisan voters, aka those who turn-out during midterms, don't care about the state of the economy and when the economy is doing well those who don't like the president anyway will simply give the credit to someone else (in 2018 most democrats gave the credit to Obama).

What about COVID?  If we're no longer masking up and social distancing in the fall of 2022, that could be beneficial for Biden, just like Bush's response to 9/11 benefitted him.

[Frenchrepublican]

On the paper 2018 should not have been a too bad year for republicans and you can say the same about 2014 concerning democrats as in both cases the economy was growing. The thing is that the most partisan voters, aka those who turn-out during midterms, don't care about the state of the economy and when the economy is doing well those who don't like the president anyway will simply give the credit to someone else (in 2018 most democrats gave the credit to Obama).

What made 2018 as bad is it was for Republicans (mostly in the House) was the fact that Republicans had a trifecta that allowed them to overreach (i.e. getting rid of SALT and trying to repeal ACA).  Had Dems held the Senate, 2018 would likely have been quite a bit better for Republicans (less bad).

The SALT thing was a problem in the upper class districts of NJ, but losing districts like NY-22 or IA-3/IA-1 can't be explained by the SALT issue.

[MarkD]

I think 2022 will be like 2002 -- Democrats gain more House seats. What will happen in the Senate is harder to tell, because we don't yet know the outcome of the two Georgia races.
(BTW, I don't think you can treat the 1978 election as a neutral outcome; Republicans gained 15 more seats in the House, bumping Democrats out of their two-thirds majority they had won in 1976.)

[Astatine]

I think 2022 will be like 2002 -- Democrats gain more House seats. What will happen in the Senate is harder to tell, because we don't yet know the outcome of the two Georgia races.
(BTW, I don't think you can treat the 1978 election as a neutral outcome; Republicans gained 15 more seats in the House, bumping Democrats out of their two-thirds majority they had won in 1976.)

Where are they supposed to gain them tho? Even in an environment comparable to 2020, Democrats would probably lose the House considering the fact that gerrymandering in populous states will likely hurt them hard (FL, TX, Jim Cooper's district in TN, RI-02 gets abolished, and CA has a nonpartisan commission to draw maps).

[Hope For A New Era]

I think 2022 will be like 2002 -- Democrats gain more House seats. What will happen in the Senate is harder to tell, because we don't yet know the outcome of the two Georgia races.
(BTW, I don't think you can treat the 1978 election as a neutral outcome; Republicans gained 15 more seats in the House, bumping Democrats out of their two-thirds majority they had won in 1976.)

Where are they supposed to gain them tho? Even in an environment comparable to 2020, Democrats would probably lose the House considering the fact that gerrymandering in populous states will likely hurt them hard (FL, TX, Jim Cooper's district in TN, RI-02 gets abolished, and CA has a nonpartisan commission to draw maps).

California's commission will most likely be "nonpartisan in name only."

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think 2022 will be like 2002 -- Democrats gain more House seats. What will happen in the Senate is harder to tell, because we don't yet know the outcome of the two Georgia races.
(BTW, I don't think you can treat the 1978 election as a neutral outcome; Republicans gained 15 more seats in the House, bumping Democrats out of their two-thirds majority they had won in 1976.)

Where are they supposed to gain them tho? Even in an environment comparable to 2020, Democrats would probably lose the House considering the fact that gerrymandering in populous states will likely hurt them hard (FL, TX, Jim Cooper's district in TN, RI-02 gets abolished, and CA has a nonpartisan commission to draw maps).

California's commission will most likely be "nonpartisan in name only."

This

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's , WI, PA and NC and a slew of D INCUMBENT Gov seats will help D's in the midterm, it's not a typical midterm Election, Biden approvals will no where be as disastetous as Trump, but Rs will find out, they assuring drapes too early