Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[I Can Now Die Happy]

This is what happens when you become the party of racism, anti-semitism, and Donaldophobia.

[bilaps]

Red getting redder, blue gettin bluer.

[Xing]

Well, I suppose there's more of Centre left, but not exactly a great result for Democrats.

[Matty]

Big thing to keep in mind here

penn state students are out for summer

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

This is what happens when you become the party of racism, anti-semitism, and Donaldophobia.

You lose an election in a district where almost all of the counties haven't gone Democratic for President since LBJ?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

Texas does not register by party.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

I'm pretty sure the issue isn't with my party affiliation/support, but with the fact that I'm excited about a race that Bagel doesn't believe will be competitive, which I guess translates into mocking me for my excitement?  Because he assumes I'm being delusional and think Marc will win, rather than my stated goal of watching the margins?  I'm not sure, frankly.  

Anyway, I'm interested to see what the Centre County margins will look like, given that a hefty chunk of the red portions of the county aren't in PA-12.

Even your margin game failed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why would anyone even waste time trying to flip this seat?

Because Marc would make a phenomenal Congressman and could bring great knowledge about cybersecurity to a policymaking chamber that is in large part made up of old people who can barely set up their own Facebook?  Because agricultural industry alternatives like medical marijuana and industrial hemp need to be encouraged and supported if we want our agrarian communities to be viable in the 21st century?  Because we believe in him?  Etc?

[/b]Maybe I'm just not old enough to have the hope and fight beat out of me yet.

I am eighteen, and I lost hope at fifteen when Clinton lost, never too young to lose all joy.

[Tender Branson]

That's quite the margin. Didn't expect that ...

[smoltchanov]

Well, i overestimated Democrats by predicting only 65-35....

[Dr. Arch]

Red getting redder, blue gettin bluer.

This is the right take for most places in the U.S. at this point. The big thing is that those blue places getting bluer are more populous and growing, while those red places getting redder are almost all the mirror image of the former.

[Matty]

I wonder if the fact that dems already have the house is going to lead to a decline in their energy levels for 2019 specials

[ctherainbow]

Anyway, I’m guessing Centre county comes in last here

It was actually my county, Susquehanna.  I almost expected it.  We're just slow around here.    

[MT Treasurer]

Well, i overestimated Democrats by predicting only 65-35....

My prediction was even more embarrassing, but it’s not like these off-year special elections are easy to predict. It does appear that the pattern this year isn’t nearly as favorable for Democrats as in 2017/2018.

[smoltchanov]

Well, i overestimated Democrats by predicting only 65-35....

My prediction was even more embarrassing, but it’s not like these off-year special elections are easy to predict. It does appear that the pattern this year isn’t nearly as favorable for Democrats as in 2017/2018.

Sure. May be because they are not a minority on all levels anymore. The have House, and that makes them part of "power that be"....

[lfromnj]

Overall a bit dissapointing margin for D's but no biggie overall

[Continential]

Overall a bit dissapointing margin for D's but no biggie overall

It's decent as the Trump Rally and the fact it is a Special Election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Overall a bit dissapointing margin for D's but no biggie overall

It's decent as the Trump Rally and the fact it is a Special Election.

And as someone else said, Penn State students are out for summer rn. That’s a heavily D bloc that just wasn’t around. Not like it would flip the seat, but it would make the margin better.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well it was still a fraction of a percent closer than the 2016 Prez GE so there is still that

[lfromnj]

Well it was still a fraction of a percent closer than the 2016 Prez GE so there is still that

Yeah all that canvassing really brought the margins down.

[cvparty]

centre county's vote dropped 59% for 2018 compared to 45% for the district #collegeeffect

[Bidenworth2020]

Well it was still a fraction of a percent closer than the 2016 Prez GE so there is still that

Yeah all that canvassing really brought the margins down.

I do not think democrats tried at all in this race, lol.

[ctherainbow]

Yeah all that canvassing really brought the margins down.

It did, actually! 

Outside of the counties with major extenuating factors like home turf for either candidate(Centre, Union, and Snyder) or the Trump rally(Lycoming), every single county but Northumberland had better Dem margins than the district as a whole when compared to 2018, and 7 of those 11 counties had better margins individually than they did in 2018.  The Trump rally in Lycoming County really crippled Marc; it's the most populous county in the district(Centre is only partially in the district), and voted over three points to the right of 2018 this time around.  And the Susquehanna Valley counties like Union and Snyder which Keller represented in the PA state House swung hard right as well; 4.6 and 5.4 points respectively.

So sure, the canvassing and phone banking and thousands of volunteer hours didn't swing the district, but in areas where they were the major outreach effort, they absolutely made a difference!   

[The Mikado]

Thread title changed because Tender was nagging me, but I really wish you guys would retire this old thread and have one about Congressional Special Elections from the start.

Oh well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dan McQueasy trailing 46-42

sad!

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/NC-9-Executive-Summary.pdf