Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Ilhan Apologist]

McCready internal poll: race tied at 46 each.

McCready +8 when voters are informed about Bishop's record as a State Senator.

Time to churn out those attack ads

[Gracile]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1153361745739751426

[lfromnj]

Why would he even release this when the most recent public poll has him leading?

[Pollster]

Why would he even release this when the most recent public poll has him leading?

This is a tongue-in-cheek way for the campaign to share intel with outside groups and super PACs legally. They want anti-pharmaceutical orgs to get involved and spend big in this race.

[Gracile]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rating change for NC-09:

Tossup -> Lean R

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1156896205873516544

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always said this race would be lean R. North Carolina will be North Carolina.

[IceSpear]

Considering Harris likely won even without the fraud in a D+9 Democratic wave year, it makes sense that Republicans would be at least a bit favored. But the election will be an interesting test of the political environment and seeing whether or not Republicans were able to close the enthusiasm gap, and if so to what degree. If it still ends up being a close race, much less if McCready actually wins, it'll be pretty clear that the GOP is struggling to improve their position much if at all since last November. Not that it matters all that much since 2020 is still an eternity away.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Relatively uneventful and quite race, nothing like the thrilling special elections before the midterms. Bishop will probably win by mid single digits.

[wesmoorenerd]

I have the gut feeling that this is more of an Ossoff/O'Connor than a Lamb. Not ruling a McCready victory out though. Tilt R seems appropriate.

If McCready wins, expect a raging torrent of retirements.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/08/16/weekend-open-thread-for-august-16-18-2019/#comments

RRH doing a poll of both specials.

[Badger]

I always said this race would be lean R. North Carolina will be North Carolina.

Plus gerrymandering will be gerrymandering

[RI]

Rumor has it that there will need to be a special election in KS-02 in the near future.

[DINGO Joe]

Rumor has it that there will need to be a special election in KS-02 in the near future.

How mysterious

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Rumor has it that there will need to be a special election in KS-02 in the near future.

woah, can you elaborate?

[RI]

Rumor has it that there will need to be a special election in KS-02 in the near future.

woah, can you elaborate?

It's starting to come out: https://www.cjonline.com/news/20190822/us-rep-steve-watkins-ducks-reporters-amid-speculation-he-could-resign

[Mr. Smith]

Rumor has it that there will need to be a special election in KS-02 in the near future.

woah, can you elaborate?

It's starting to come out: https://www.cjonline.com/news/20190822/us-rep-steve-watkins-ducks-reporters-amid-speculation-he-could-resign

Well, as long as someone besides Paul Davis takes the challenge, this ought be interesting if true.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rumor has it that there will need to be a special election in KS-02 in the near future.

woah, can you elaborate?

It's starting to come out: https://www.cjonline.com/news/20190822/us-rep-steve-watkins-ducks-reporters-amid-speculation-he-could-resign

Well, as long as someone besides Paul Davis takes the challenge, this ought be interesting if true.

Paul Davis is literally the only chance we have to win here and even that would take a weak Republican nominee

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166029960198459394?s=20

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166029960198459394?s=20

How does this compare to prior elections? I know Dems need to be significantly ahead in these to have any chance but how far ahead would they typically need to be?

[Epaminondas]

Paul Davis is literally the only chance we have to win here and even that would take a weak Republican nominee

I heard he won the district in his 2014 Senate run, is that correct?

[Brittain33]

Comparison of 2019 to 2018 in two Charlotte-area counties.

Nothing from Bladen County.

Looks like turnout has crashed further among Republicans than among other groups.


https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166038721168334851?s=20

[Gustaf]

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166029960198459394?s=20

How does this compare to prior elections? I know Dems need to be significantly ahead in these to have any chance but how far ahead would they typically need to be?

My reading is that there is a clear drop in GOP turnout compared to 2018 which I guess is a positive sign for McCready given how close it was last time.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166029960198459394?s=20

How does this compare to prior elections? I know Dems need to be significantly ahead in these to have any chance but how far ahead would they typically need to be?

My reading is that there is a clear drop in GOP turnout compared to 2018 which I guess is a positive sign for McCready given how close it was last time.

It looks like there’s a huge fall-off for all categories, which you’d expect, but a further drop off for Rs compared to Ds. So good news for McReady now, but potential for change given how many people aren’t voting.

[IceSpear]

According to Politico, a district that voted 13 points to the right of the country in 2016 and 10 points to the right of the country in 2018 is a "bellwether." Uh...if you say so guys. The GOP is also apparently "fretting" about McCready's "two year long head start." Basically, this article should be titled: "GOP doing very well in the expectations setting game"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/trump-gop-north-carolina-election-1476636

My favorite line:

The election is serving as a testing ground for Trump’s 2020 message and strategy. Bishop has worked to nationalize the race, labeling McCready a “socialist”

It's over. Bishop by at least 20.

It's like the GOP doesn't even realize that calling every generic Democrat a "socialist" for decades has made the accusation have about as much impact on the median voter as Democrats calling Trump a Nazi does.

[Epaminondas]

According to Politico, a district that voted 13 points to the right of the country in 2016 and 10 points to the right of the country in 2018 is a "bellwether."

Basically, this article should be titled: "GOP doing very well in the expectations setting game"

It is also frustrating to me, but perhaps that is the only way to raise sufficient funds to lose a squeaker and perpetuate the cycle.

Catch-22.