Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[HarrisonL]

I still rate this race as Tossup, or gun to the head Lean R

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's time for a haiku of my own!

Dan Bishop will win
Undecideds will break R
As they always do

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's time for a haiku of my own!

Dan Bishop will win
Undecideds will break R
As they always do

Haikus are easy
But sometimes they don't make sense
Refrigerator

[RI]

RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

[Pollster]

RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

If this winds up being the final margin in this district, that's probably a bigger warning sign to the GOP than a solid McCready win.

[Frenchrepublican]

RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

These numbers are horrible, Trump won the district 60/38 and he is barely abovewater with the special election electorate. It's clear that low turnout special elections will continue to favour democrats, enthusiasm is on their side. It doesn't bode well for NC-9.

[Gracile]

RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

Not good for the GOP. Curious to see their NC-09 results...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ouch. If Trump only wins NC-3 by 11% then he loses the state and it’s not even close

[lfromnj]

Anyone thinks its possible NC 03 could be closer than NC 09. Im not predicting that but I wouldn't be shocked, special elections are whack. Ga 6th should have been a gimme for the D's just like PA 12th in 2010 but both failed yet SC 5th was close on the same night.

[Frenchrepublican]

Anyone thinks its possible NC 03 could be closer than NC 09. Im not predicting that but I wouldn't be shocked, special elections are whack. Ga 6th should have been a gimme for the D's just like PA 12th in 2010 but both failed yet SC 5th was close on the same night.

I'm doubtful about that. NC-9, contrary to NC-3, has a significant population of white liberals, these voters are fired-up, including for unconsequential low turnout special elections, it's the main reason why McCready is in a good position, the democratic electorate in NC-3 on the other hand is mostly composed of black voters who are unlikely to storm the polls in order to vote in a special election. Murphy will win easily but NC-9 will be close.

[lfromnj]

Anyone thinks its possible NC 03 could be closer than NC 09. Im not predicting that but I wouldn't be shocked, special elections are whack. Ga 6th should have been a gimme for the D's just like PA 12th in 2010 but both failed yet SC 5th was close on the same night.

I'm doubtful about that. NC-9, contrary to NC-3, has a significant population of white liberals, these voters are fired-up, including for unconsequential low turnout special elections, it's the main reason why McCready is in a good position, the democratic electorate in NC-3 on the other hand is mostly composed of black voters who are unlikely to storm the polls in order to vote in a special election. Murphy will win easily but NC-9 will be close.

I mean there is a hurricane coming too, it shouldn't affect NC 09 much NC03 turnout could go down like crazy and thats when we get whack results

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know when the RRH NC-09 poll will be released?

[RI]

Does anyone know when the RRH NC-09 poll will be released?

4pm ET for non-donors.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone know when the RRH NC-09 poll will be released?

4pm ET for non-donors.

It’s Bishop +1

[Frenchrepublican]

[Politician]

NC-09 is a tossup, nothing new.

[Gass3268]

Not a good result for Bishoph coming from a right wing website.

[Sestak]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

[Matty]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Well Bishop isn’t only gonna win whites by 3% or else’s he’d get demolished, so it kinda balances

[lfromnj]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish. 

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish.

I believe that Trump's appeal to black americans like his admirable negotiation of A$AP Rocky's release might be boosting Bishop's numbers with black voters in this district.

[Bidenworth2020]

Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish.

Trump's appeal to black americans like his admirable negotiation of A$AP Rocky's release might be boosting Bishop's numbers with black voters in this district.

The best polls for Trump among blacks I have seen have him at around 25.

[OneJ]

It should be noted that the methodology states that the NC-03 poll is weighted by just gender only while the NC-09 one is weighted by both gender and geography. Also, Trump's approval in NC-03 looks lower than what I expect (49-45).

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1169323806437117958