Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)  (Read 167860 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1175 on: September 04, 2019, 03:39:05 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 04, 2019, 02:30:51 PM


F***
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1176 on: September 04, 2019, 04:04:40 PM »
Dorian could seriously play havoc with this election.
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #1177 on: September 04, 2019, 06:19:04 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 04, 2019, 02:30:51 PM

Robeson was one of McCready's best counties in 2018. Yikes.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1178 on: September 05, 2019, 09:03:35 AM »
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-ratings-changes/

Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its ratings for the NC-03 and NC-09 special elections in the final week:

NC-03: Safe R -> Likely R
NC-09: Lean R -> Tossup
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1179 on: September 05, 2019, 12:38:33 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 05, 2019, 09:03:35 AM
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-ratings-changes/

Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its ratings for the NC-03 and NC-09 special elections in the final week:

NC-03: Safe R -> Likely R
NC-09: Lean R -> Tossup

Larry Sabato's team is the most conservative political handicapper in the media. Anything less than a clear win they label Tossup.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1180 on: September 05, 2019, 01:01:22 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 04, 2019, 02:30:51 PM


Actually everything east of Richmond is closed thru Friday,
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Xing
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« Reply #1181 on: September 05, 2019, 02:54:10 PM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on September 05, 2019, 12:38:33 PM
Quote from: gracile on September 05, 2019, 09:03:35 AM
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-ratings-changes/

Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its ratings for the NC-03 and NC-09 special elections in the final week:

NC-03: Safe R -> Likely R
NC-09: Lean R -> Tossup

Larry Sabato's team is the most conservative political handicapper in the media. Anything less than a clear win they label Tossup.

Actually, they rarely keep races as Toss-Ups in the final stretch, and typically move them to either Lean R or Lean D, though they're a bit more cautious with special elections (they had GA-06, AL-SEN, PA-18, and OH-12 as Toss-Ups.) With the exception of GA-06, all of those were very close in the end.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1182 on: September 06, 2019, 12:45:59 PM »
Early voting extended in hurricane-impacted counties.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1183 on: September 06, 2019, 06:10:41 PM »
Congressman-elect Dan Bishop, everyone! Strong is the R lean with this state.

I'm not putting it past Trump and the GOP to start praising Dorian when this inevitability happens.
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Badger
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« Reply #1184 on: September 06, 2019, 07:40:47 PM »
Quote from: Mayor Pete Scares Me on September 03, 2019, 03:56:12 PM
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on September 03, 2019, 03:50:18 PM
Quote from: marty on September 03, 2019, 03:43:08 PM
Quote from: Trotsky-Bidenist for Sestak on September 03, 2019, 03:40:13 PM
Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish.

I believe that Trump's appeal to black americans like his admirable negotiation of A$AP Rocky's release might be boosting Bishop's numbers with black voters in this district.

Renewed evidence you are a joke accounts after all.

Good job. You had me fooled.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #1185 on: September 06, 2019, 08:08:43 PM »
Quote from: Badger on September 06, 2019, 07:40:47 PM
Quote from: Mayor Pete Scares Me on September 03, 2019, 03:56:12 PM
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on September 03, 2019, 03:50:18 PM
Quote from: marty on September 03, 2019, 03:43:08 PM
Quote from: Trotsky-Bidenist for Sestak on September 03, 2019, 03:40:13 PM
Wait, they have black voters split 46-42 in McCready's favor?

LMAO RRH

Probably a small sample size

Even with a small sample size of 125 its impossible to go from 90% to maybe 85% to around 44% D. The MOE for 100-125 should be around 9-12% ish.

I believe that Trump's appeal to black americans like his admirable negotiation of A$AP Rocky's release might be boosting Bishop's numbers with black voters in this district.

Renewed evidence you are a joke accounts after all.

Good job. You had me fooled.

How did I have you fooled?

Anyway I'm redoing my prediction from earlier. I don't think it will be Bishop+8 but I do think it will be something like ~51% Bishop(R), ~48% McCready(D), ~1% Green+Libertarian.
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Politician
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« Reply #1186 on: September 07, 2019, 07:49:22 PM »
NC-9: All tied up

https://static.wixstatic.com/ugd/335ca2_46bf8209ab7f4edbb49f30a7293dc901.pdf
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History505
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« Reply #1187 on: September 07, 2019, 08:08:32 PM »
Tight as can be.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1188 on: September 07, 2019, 08:22:28 PM »
The enthusiasm gap should seriously worry Republicans:

Quote
Very excited: McCready +1
Somewhat excited: McCready +4
Not sure: McCready +13
Not excited: Bishop +14 (!)
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #1189 on: September 07, 2019, 08:36:46 PM »

Cutting 3rd party candidates out, McCready leads by 3 - 48 to 45.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1190 on: September 07, 2019, 09:47:56 PM »



I think this poll might not be the best...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1191 on: September 07, 2019, 10:29:33 PM »
How can it be that hard to poll black people in North Carolina?
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OneJ
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« Reply #1192 on: September 07, 2019, 10:37:04 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on September 07, 2019, 09:47:56 PM


I think this poll might not be the best...

I don't know about this one. Maybe they just switched his approval and disapproval numbers up among the crosstab groups?
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Pollster
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« Reply #1193 on: September 08, 2019, 11:31:41 AM »
Saw an internal poll the other day with McCready +1, with the same horrendous voter enthusiasm numbers for Republicans as in this poll. They are really betting on Trump's last-minute rally to get their voters out.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1194 on: September 08, 2019, 11:46:54 AM »
One thing I have been thinking about a lot is the hurricanes effects, especially in relation to the fact dems tend to vote early in NC and that enthusiasm curve. We could be in for some...unusual results in NC03 all because of the weather.
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Matty
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« Reply #1195 on: September 08, 2019, 12:50:13 PM »
This election is getting almost zero attention from national media.

That usually bodes well for the dems. In the "nationalized" special elections last year, they lost.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1196 on: September 08, 2019, 01:52:03 PM »
This off year has been so boring. I am glad at least we have two specials in NC, and the whole VA legislature in the fall as well as the 3 Gubernatorial races as well.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1197 on: September 08, 2019, 05:50:06 PM »
Quote from: marty on September 08, 2019, 12:50:13 PM
This election is getting almost zero attention from national media.

That usually bodes well for the dems. In the "nationalized" special elections last year, they lost.


That's actually a good point.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1198 on: September 08, 2019, 06:13:29 PM »
Great recap here about what to look at going into Tuesday
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1199 on: September 08, 2019, 08:29:43 PM »

Terrific article, thanks for posting it.
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