Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[NOVA Green]

Are there enough votes in the precincts where the results look fudged that McCready could have won the election?

Vosem,

That's a very good question, and unfortunately NC is not as transparent in posting precinct level election results at a Statewide level.

So, in States or Counties where it is difficult to obtain public official election results, such as Bladen County NC, it becomes a bit more challenging....

I look the liberty of going to a site that collects precinct level data from official sources, that frequently has to rely on scanned PDFs from local County election offices and runs them through an OCR software program, and then dumps the raw output into a CSV file after some customized scripting programs... (PM me if you want a link to the source).

I basically looked at the following Four precincts in Bladen County for the 2016 NC GOV race for the two Major Party candidates only (Not LBT or Write-Ins).

Precinct 15= 516 Total Votes (DEM + REP)
Precinct 201= 243 Total Votes (DEM + REP)
Precinct 202= 430 Total Votes (DEM + REP)
Precinct 501= 426 Total Votes (DEM + REP)

*** Note with Precinct 501 there appears to be an anomaly which I would most likely chalk up to a scripting error that shows 501 is 268 DEM and 268 REP.

It also appears to duplicate Republican results for all precincts for Bladen County, but the other number for precinct 501 = 158 REP vs 268 REP.

So, let's assume for the sake of argument that the total '16 NC-GOV results for these four precincts (Excluding 3rd Party Candidates and Write-Ins) was 1,615 Total Votes (DEM + REP).

Now it starts to get tricky, since one of the focuses of the investigation was absentee ballot fraud....

Voters might be coded to a hard precinct for In-Person voting, but the County wraps up One-Stop Precincts into several different buckets, as well as Mail-In-Absentee Ballots....

How to divide items such as the early "One Stop Vote Centers" into precincts, and how to assess absentee ballots starts to get a bit thorny, especially since I don't visibility on the EV In-Person Vote Center total numbers or ABS for the portion of the CD within the County....

This is one of the frustrating things about many states (Not just Southern States) that take entire buckets of EVs and ABS-Mail Voters and don't move these numbers back to the precinct in a transparent fashion....

Also, I couldn't even find a means to pull up a precinct map of the County to see if maybe there was some major precinct shifts that might have contributed to this, etc....

Ironically, the official County Election Site has a major warning on their official site posted 7/13/18 notifying residents that they are taking all steps to protect election security after the indictment of Russian Military Intelligence Officials because of election hacking/fraud attempts (Meddling I think it is politely called).

https://bladennc.govoffice3.com/?SEC=1B08DD3E-D802-4B15-9D99-CCCA341FAD38

So take that fwiw, but that's the data I could quickly pull up about these precinct #s in 30-40 Minutes of my time....

[Tekken_Guy]

If McCready was in the lead, the left would be up in arms by now.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Even without any hard evidence, this seems like exactly the sort of thing Rachel Maddow would spend the first 50 minutes of her show teasing out all the rumors over.  But nope, tonight is yet another episode on Russian collusion, rehashing Senate committee testimony from last year.

Yep, that's why no one watches MSNBC anymore.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Bladen County had some bizarre irregularities in favor of Harris during the primary too (such as more absentees cast there than the entire rest if the district.) It's entirely possible that that Harris stole the nomination from Pittenger as well.

[Xing]

If McCready was in the lead, the left would be up in arms by now.

And the right would be screaming voter fraud. What's your point?

[NOVA Green]

If McCready was in the lead, the left would be up in arms by now.

Unlike the Extreme Right, the Extreme Left over the past Four Decades, does not engage in political violence targeting individuals...

The Extreme Right is heavily driven by Neo-Fascist and White Supremacist political formations that have been on our watch list for decades.

The "Lone Wolves" of the Extreme Right have been steered and guided by the same movement leaders that have been around for decades, and most of the political violence and mass murders by extremists have been committed by these same folks....

Meanwhile the "Extreme Left" gave up the Armed Struggle decades ago, and now we see overwhelmingly peaceful protests, with occasional incidents where various political formations occasionally commit minor violence against property and once in awhile in the "Left-Wing" strongholds of the US occasionally a few rocks are thrown against law enforcement officers, that are also from overwhelmingly Democratic communities....

Now, in a text based format it's extremely easy to sound too serious on my point, compared to what you were likely actually attempting to say....

"Up in Arms" is a rhetorical presentation on your part, rather than an actual statement regarding Political Violence in the United States in 2018 (Or even within the past 40 Years).

Does "Up in Arms" mean how Republicans in Miami-Dade County since 2000 to the present day have attempted to intimidate local election officials to get the results they want, using everything from storming County Election Offices in 2000 to blockading County Election offices using a fleet of Rental Trucks after the 2018 election?

Democrats tend to be to easy to lie down, roll over, and take the results where it really hurts, and not challenge results that might be extremely sketchy such as TX-23.

Every vote counts, but the PUBs in certain parts of the Country tend to dominate the Counties where the votes are actually cast, dictate the rules of the game, shift around precincts, voting hours, and intentionally try to maintain power politics, even in places with history of White Supremacist rule, where in theory the VRA was supposed to solve all of those issues.....

Is it any wonder that some backwoods County in NC has been rigging the game for Decades, but maybe they got caught because some PUB CI has been cooperating on these issues, because their relative lost re-election for County Dogcatcher?

So ok--- hyperbole aside, have you had a chance to check out the precinct results yet, and can you contribute the communities impacted, or break down how they assign EV locations and break down ABS numbers by precinct?

Sorry--- Western US doesn't like election cheating, regardless of the most heavily Republican State to the most heavily Democratic State....

Looking forward to actually seeing the final results in a potential recount / rerun once the Bi-Partisan officials of the NC-BoE start shifting through this data in greater detail.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Here's the results in the primary from Bladen County, LOL.



If its determined that Harris stole the primary then that's enough to invalidate the election and call a special.

[lfromnj]

ok yeah I can understand weird voting habits in a county between two different parties but yeah that primary is super suspicious. But then wouldn't Pittenger probably win the primary  as Harris would be scandal plagued? That would make it tougher for mcready to win.

[Sorenroy]

Are there enough votes in the precincts where the results look fudged that McCready could have won the election?

That's a very good question, and unfortunately NC is not as transparent in posting precinct level election results at a Statewide level.

In my opinion (and I know I'm biased), NC has some of the easiest accessed voter information there is. It might be a little slow to certify but it is incredibly easy to access with an interactive map. You are correct in saying that occasionally they do not split the early vote into the precincts, but I have it on very good authority that they will for this election (they did so in the primary as well).

https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/06/2018&county_id=9&contest_id=1183*

*As of right now, the absentee, one stop, and provisional ballots have yet to be broken down by precinct, however, they should be at some point in the future.

Also, it's easy to pull the registered voter list as well as the 2018 general voter file from the state's SOS page. I can't find it off hand, but if that's something y'all would like to look at I can put in some time pulling out information on Bladen County.

[Sol]

ok yeah I can understand weird voting habits in a county between two different parties but yeah that primary is super suspicious. But then wouldn't Pittenger probably win the primary  as Harris would be scandal plagued? That would make it tougher for mcready to win.

Pittenger is a terrible politician; uncharismatic, uninspiring, corrupt, etc. There's a reason why the primary was so close even if Harris went over the top due to fraud

[Virginiá]

ahaa. Called it:

https://twitter.com/CraigJ_NandO/status/1068157984906387456

[Gass3268]

ahaa. Called it:

https://twitter.com/CraigJ_NandO/status/1068157984906387456

Luckily the State Supreme Court will smack them back down. It's almost comical at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

So, looks like Harris leads by 832 votes in Bladen (and district-wide by 905). If there's a reasonable belief some shenanigans occurred here - to the extent that it's equivalent to roughly 1 in 5 GOP ballots cast in the county - then this would be the biggest instance of voter fraud in a long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, looks like Harris leads by 832 votes in Bladen (and district-wide by 905). If there's a reasonable belief some shenanigans occurred here - to the extent that it's equivalent to roughly 1 in 5 GOP ballots cast in the county - then this would be the biggest instance of voter fraud in a long time.

The Charlotte Observer story says that Harris leads by 1557 in Bladen.

[Adam Griffin]

So, looks like Harris leads by 832 votes in Bladen (and district-wide by 905). If there's a reasonable belief some shenanigans occurred here - to the extent that it's equivalent to roughly 1 in 5 GOP ballots cast in the county - then this would be the biggest instance of voter fraud in a long time.

The Charlotte Observer story says that Harris leads by 1557 in Bladen.

I must have not done the math properly: I handcounted using this link from the State Board of Elections (though it shows countywide the same lead you mentioned).

[Adam Griffin]

So, looks like Harris leads by 832 votes in Bladen (and district-wide by 905). If there's a reasonable belief some shenanigans occurred here - to the extent that it's equivalent to roughly 1 in 5 GOP ballots cast in the county - then this would be the biggest instance of voter fraud in a long time.

The Charlotte Observer story says that Harris leads by 1557 in Bladen.

I must have not done the math properly: I handcounted using this link from the State Board of Elections (though it shows countywide the same lead you mentioned).

Aaah, OK: early and absentee are in their own countywide category, and thus don't show on the precinct map totals. So Harris led by 832 votes from Election Day voting out of 4276 votes cast, and an additional 729-vote lead from early, absentee and provisional voting out of 5122 votes cast.

[UncleSam]

Didn’t they say we would get more details on what they’re looking at today? Has a time been posted anywhere?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Didn’t they say we would get more details on what they’re looking at today? Has a time been posted anywhere?

I thought it was going to be Friday (but don't have a citation for that).

[henster]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1068225397165314048

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1068225397165314048

Waiting for someone to come up with an innocent explanation of this.  (* settles down with a good book *)

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1068225397165314048

Waiting for someone to come up with an innocent explanation of this.  (* settles down with a good book *)

When Republicans do it, it's not voter fraud.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1068225397165314048

I don't believe that actually happened.

[Woody]

Can the democrats please stop trying to steal elections?

[lfromnj]

Can the democrats please stop trying to steal elections?

It's a bipartisan board voting unanimously. If it was a 5 to 4 decision I would be outraged too but a unanimous decision suggests maybe there is a problem

[Virginiá]

Can the democrats please stop trying to steal elections?

I'm confused. It's the Republican Party that keeps saying that voter fraud is an epidemic, so when a bipartisan board unanimously holds back certification and suspects mischief, you accuse Democrats of shenanigans?