Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

65/35. There can’t be much of a Democratic turnout operation.

Excuse you.   

Marc's had a phenomenal campaign thus far, and my county Democrats are more excited about this special election than they were about this seat in 2018.  The campaign's hit every major town in the district+had roving rural canvassing teams out since the week after Marc announced.  Will it be enough to win the district?  Nah.  But it's rather condescending to call  thousands of hours of volunteer work "not much".   

Why would anyone even waste time trying to flip this seat?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

Texas does not register by party.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

I'm pretty sure the issue isn't with my party affiliation/support, but with the fact that I'm excited about a race that Bagel doesn't believe will be competitive, which I guess translates into mocking me for my excitement?  Because he assumes I'm being delusional and think Marc will win, rather than my stated goal of watching the margins?  I'm not sure, frankly.  

Anyway, I'm interested to see what the Centre County margins will look like, given that a hefty chunk of the red portions of the county aren't in PA-12.

Even your margin game failed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why would anyone even waste time trying to flip this seat?

Because Marc would make a phenomenal Congressman and could bring great knowledge about cybersecurity to a policymaking chamber that is in large part made up of old people who can barely set up their own Facebook?  Because agricultural industry alternatives like medical marijuana and industrial hemp need to be encouraged and supported if we want our agrarian communities to be viable in the 21st century?  Because we believe in him?  Etc?

[/b]Maybe I'm just not old enough to have the hope and fight beat out of me yet.

I am eighteen, and I lost hope at fifteen when Clinton lost, never too young to lose all joy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well it was still a fraction of a percent closer than the 2016 Prez GE so there is still that

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dan McQueasy trailing 46-42

sad!

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/NC-9-Executive-Summary.pdf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Relatively uneventful and quite race, nothing like the thrilling special elections before the midterms. Bishop will probably win by mid single digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We're getting a lot of new polls today for this race, apparently. New poll has McCready leading 46-42.

I think Trump's approval is off in it, 48-47 disapproval seems like it's underestimating Trump's support.

Bishop is an A tier candidate
he outta win well
I call bullsh@t on that poll, likely R race
strong Lean R at best for team blue
this is a crititcal race for the GOP
which is why they are fighting hard and will win it
If McCready loses, overall it is no big deal for team blue
if Bishop somehow manages to f#ck this up and lose, it will be a big f#cking deal
so the GOP won't drop the ball on this one
the dem spirit just is not there

I expect Bishop to win by 4-5 points now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lmao no I did not mean this as a haiku, I was talking to Greedo about the election on discord, and wanted to share my thoughts here as well, and I was too lazy to either retype or reformat, so I just pasted.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

SCOTLAND COUNTY 2018 RESULT: D+13.7
SCOTLAND COUNTY 2019 RESULT: D+12.9

Yeah, depressed black turnout.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is an error

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Closer than I thought, but nonetheless Congressman Bish will probably still be a thing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone know what happens with Bishop's seat now?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171611976100917248

Dan Bishop was never ever down by 17 points

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

It's not really disingenious.  It's really just drooling inbred Republican stupidity.  I guess we know who UWS is.

Do you think he is legitimately stupid enough to believe what he said, or do you think he knows he is lying by omission?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

U.S. House - District 7 - GOP - Special Primary
96.15% Precincts ReportingFeb. 04, 2020 10:36 pm EST
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
GOP   
Klacik, Kimberly
4,304
41.12%
GOP   
Matory, Liz
2,566
24.52%
GOP   
Arnold, James
1,276
12.19%
GOP   
Hawkins, Reba
826
7.89%
GOP   
Anderson, Christopher
740
7.07%
GOP   
Newton, William
371
3.54%
GOP   
Bly, Ray
216
2.06%
GOP   
Brown, Brian
168
1.61%
iIncumbentRunoffWinner

U.S. House - District 7 - Dem - Special Primary
96.15% Precincts ReportingFeb. 04, 2020 10:34 pm EST
Party   Name   Votes   Vote %   
Dem   
Mfume, Kweisi
27,949
42.91%
Dem   
Cummings, Maya
11,125
17.08%
Dem   
Carter, Jill
10,444
16.03%
Dem   
Hill, Terri
4,922
7.56%
Dem   
Higginbotham, Michael
2,952
4.53%
Dem   
Spikes, Harry
2,270
3.49%
Dem   
Rabb, Saafir
1,160
1.78%
Dem   
Jalisi, Jay
1,156
1.77%
Dem   
Branch, Talmadge
717
1.1%
Dem   
Gosnell, Mark
537
0.82%
Dem   
Baker, Dan
342
0.53%
Dem   
Stokes, Charles
251
0.39%
Dem   
Gonzalez, Darryl
228
0.35%
Dem   
Konka, Paul
228
0.35%
Dem   
Grant, Leslie
158
0.24%
Dem   
Brown, Alicia
145
0.22%
Dem   
Cohen, Jay
134
0.21%
Dem   
Carter, Anthony
132
0.2%
Dem   
Chullin, Matko
68
0.1%
Dem   
Smith, Charles
67
0.1%
Dem   
Petrus, Adrian
53
0.08%
Dem   
Costley, Nathaniel
41
0.06%
Dem   
Hiegel, Dan
29
0.04%
Dem   
Davidson, Jermyn
26
0.04%
iIncumbentRunoffWinner
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Am I the only one who thinks that the republican nominee's name totally sounds like it would be an adult entertainment stage name?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys I think this is over, Mike Garcia has won

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

According to twitter, mail-ins look good for McMurray:

https://twitter.com/DaveGreber4/status/1275601078483136519

NBC NEWS has 28 % of the vote reported in NY-27 Special

Jacobs (R) 40,019 Votes = 68.9 %
McMurray (D) 17,072 Votes = 29.4 %

This one is DONE! The Democrat ain't making up 23K Votes on Absentees.

NBC News has the count wrong. Their total (vastly different from NYT and the NY Board of Elections) has Jacobs leading 21,410-9053 in Erie County. This is the exact return for the ENTIRE district on the NY BOE site as of now: https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/

My guess is that NBC News mistakenly added the total results to Erie County. There's really no results from Erie County yet.

They have Edison Research who counts the Ballots. This District doesn't just represent Erie County! Give up MAN!

Why are you acting like the Erie part of the district is dem? Are you stupid? Trump won the seat 60-35 and the Erie part 59-37.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1285277732235104258

so we have not received the final results but Chris Jacobs is being sworn in?

How ridiculous is that.

Not ridiculous, he clearly won

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Special election called in GA-5 for September 29 (potential runoff December 1):

https://www.ajc.com/politics/special-election-set-to-fill-john-lewis-seat-in-congress/Q7MKHBBMKVGBHEL7GD62FQYYMM/

why even lol