Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pennsylvania Special Elections have been rather consistently abnormally strong for Democrats across the board during the Trump presidency. I would not rule out an upset near-win by Friedenberg along the same level as the KS-04 special or even the SC-05 special in 2017.

Haha, stop.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results will be at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/21/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-district-12-special-general-election.html

polls close at 8 ET.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

62-38 GOP win in PA 12 is my guess

County breakdown guesses

Lycoming 66-34 Keller

Centre 67-33 Friedenberg

Bradford 69-31 Keller

Northumberland 66-34 Keller

Perry 71-29 Keller

Susquehanna 67-33 Keller

Tioga 72-28 Keller

Union 65-35 Keller

Mifflin 75-25 Keller

Snyder 75-25 Keller

Clinton 59-41 Keller

Wyoming 64-36 Keller

Juniata 76-24 Keller

Potter 76-24 Keller

Sullivan 67-33 Keller

[lfromnj]

62-38 GOP win in PA 12 is my guess

County breakdown guesses

Lycoming 66-34 Keller

Centre 67-33 Friedenberg

Bradford 69-31 Keller

Northumberland 66-34 Keller

Perry 71-29 Keller

Susquehanna 67-33 Keller

Tioga 72-28 Keller

Union 65-35 Keller

Mifflin 75-25 Keller

Snyder 75-25 Keller

Clinton 59-41 Keller

Wyoming 64-36 Keller

Juniata 76-24 Keller

Potter 76-24 Keller

Sullivan 67-33 Keller

Btw is all of centre county in the district or just state college?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

62-38 GOP win in PA 12 is my guess

County breakdown guesses

Lycoming 66-34 Keller

Centre 67-33 Friedenberg

Bradford 69-31 Keller

Northumberland 66-34 Keller

Perry 71-29 Keller

Susquehanna 67-33 Keller

Tioga 72-28 Keller

Union 65-35 Keller

Mifflin 75-25 Keller

Snyder 75-25 Keller

Clinton 59-41 Keller

Wyoming 64-36 Keller

Juniata 76-24 Keller

Potter 76-24 Keller

Sullivan 67-33 Keller

Btw is all of centre county in the district or just state college?

Just state college, the rest of it is in PA 15.

[MT Treasurer]

56R/44D is my guess.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

56R/44D is my guess.

That would be a phenomenal result for dems.

[Sestak]

56R/44D is my guess.

That would be a phenomenal result for dems.

Yeah, I would most certainly take that.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

53R/47D

My actual prediction here is 58R/42D; the above prediction is sarcasm

[lfromnj]

62-38 GOP win in PA 12 is my guess

County breakdown guesses

Lycoming 66-34 Keller

Centre 67-33 Friedenberg

Bradford 69-31 Keller

Northumberland 66-34 Keller

Perry 71-29 Keller

Susquehanna 67-33 Keller

Tioga 72-28 Keller

Union 65-35 Keller

Mifflin 75-25 Keller

Snyder 75-25 Keller

Clinton 59-41 Keller

Wyoming 64-36 Keller

Juniata 76-24 Keller

Potter 76-24 Keller

Sullivan 67-33 Keller

Btw is all of centre county in the district or just state college?

Just state college, the rest of it is in PA 15.

thx. Your Centre county did look a bit D friendly thats why.

[Matty]

What is more red?

This district, that SOuth Carolina district, or that Kansas district?

[ctherainbow]

65/35. There can’t be much of a Democratic turnout operation.

Marc's had a phenomenal campaign thus far, and my county Democrats are more excited about this special election than they were about this seat in 2018.  The campaign's hit every major town in the district+had roving rural canvassing teams out since the week after Marc announced.  Will it be enough to win the district?  Nah.  But it's kind of condescending to call  thousands of hours of volunteer work "not much".

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

65/35. There can’t be much of a Democratic turnout operation.

Excuse you.   

Marc's had a phenomenal campaign thus far, and my county Democrats are more excited about this special election than they were about this seat in 2018.  The campaign's hit every major town in the district+had roving rural canvassing teams out since the week after Marc announced.  Will it be enough to win the district?  Nah.  But it's rather condescending to call  thousands of hours of volunteer work "not much".   

Why would anyone even waste time trying to flip this seat?

[ctherainbow]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

[ctherainbow]

Why would anyone even waste time trying to flip this seat?

Because Marc would make a phenomenal Congressman and could bring great knowledge about cybersecurity to a policymaking chamber that is in large part made up of old people who can barely set up their own Facebook?  Because agricultural industry alternatives like medical marijuana and industrial hemp need to be encouraged and supported if we want our agrarian communities to be viable in the 21st century?  Because we believe in him?  Etc?

Maybe I'm just not old enough to have the hope and fight beat out of me yet.

[ctherainbow]

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

Dude, I joined this community so that I could enjoy watching electoral results and discussing politics with people, not for my excitement about an election I worked hard on to be mocked.

[Sestak]

We should have results shortly.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

[TWTown]

Hopefully, Friedenberg pulls out an upset.
I will surely be rooting for him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First Precinct:

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
275   71.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
112   28.9
387 votes, <1% reporting (1 of 555 precincts)

[Xing]

Honestly, I'd be decently happy with a 60-40 type result.

[Sestak]

three more in from Lycoming.

Keller 677

Freidenberg 279

[ctherainbow]

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

I'm pretty sure the issue isn't with my party affiliation/support, but with the fact that I'm excited about a race that Bagel doesn't believe will be competitive, which I guess translates into mocking me for my excitement?  Because he assumes I'm being delusional and think Marc will win, rather than my stated goal of watching the margins?  I'm not sure, frankly.  

Anyway, I'm interested to see what the Centre County margins will look like, given that a hefty chunk of the red portions of the county aren't in PA-12.

[ctherainbow]

Honestly, I'd be decently happy with a 60-40 type result.

Same here.  Anything above 40 would be super exciting.