Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[adrac]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

[Storr]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

Republicans not wanting to hold one, claiming Harris should be seated.

[SteveRogers]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

[adrac]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Not precisely. The House recognizes the existence of a vacancy when a seat is filled and then becomes unfilled.  In this case, we simply have an election that has not concluded. You can't call a special election because there's already an election taking place - it simply has not concluded. NC could certify Harris right now if it so chose, but it so far has not done so, and certification is required to seat a member, except in cases where there is no question over who was elected, which is obviously not the case here.

In order to call a new election, either the house would have to take a separate and deliberate action of declaring the seat to be vacant (which would invite partisan criticisms), or NC must officially declare the election null and void. So far, neither has happened. Once either does, a special is called.

[TomC]

“Republicans cheating is unmentionable, but can I interest you in some gently used Democratic shenanigans?”

[jimrtex]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Writ of Mandamus to certify the lawful winner of the NC-9 election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who gives a crap about certification or not at this point? Regardless, it’s pretty obvious that the queen of the hill will not allow him to be seated.

[Brittain33]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Not precisely. The House recognizes the existence of a vacancy when a seat is filled and then becomes unfilled.  In this case, we simply have an election that has not concluded. You can't call a special election because there's already an election taking place - it simply has not concluded. NC could certify Harris right now if it so chose, but it so far has not done so, and certification is required to seat a member, except in cases where there is no question over who was elected, which is obviously not the case here.

In order to call a new election, either the house would have to take a separate and deliberate action of declaring the seat to be vacant (which would invite partisan criticisms), or NC must officially declare the election null and void. So far, neither has happened. Once either does, a special is called.

The House is going to investigate what the Republicans did, and can order a new election based on what they discover. More about their powers here.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/05/north-carolina-election-house-democrats-1082561

If then NC Republicans rush through an illegitimate certification, the House can move to confront and correct. After so many years of the NC Republicans thwarting democracy with only the courts to step in, it’s wonderful for democracy to see some additional checks and balances on their shenanigans.

[jimrtex]

Records show NCSBE Chair had frequent contact with figure in NC-09 investigation during ’18 election

When Jens Lutz resigned from the Bladen County Board of Elections he said that members of the Democratic Party had gone too far when they brought his family into it. Ben Snyder, the Democratic chair for the county said it was a husband and wife who were behind it.

Given that it was Democrats and this is in the rural South, could the Klan be behind it? It sounds like something the FBI should investigate.

Incidentally, Josh Malcolm's daughter, who lives at his address, was being paid by the North Carolina Democratic party out of a federal campaign fund which was in turn funded by the McCready campaign. Malcolm should have recused himself rather than involve himself in an investigation which could conceivably involve his daughter.

[Brittain33]

Records show NCSBE Chair had frequent contact with figure in NC-09 investigation during ’18 election

When Jens Lutz resigned from the Bladen County Board of Elections he said that members of the Democratic Party had gone too far when they brought his family into it. Ben Snyder, the Democratic chair for the county said it was a husband and wife who were behind it.

Given that it was Democrats and this is in the rural South, could the Klan be behind it? It sounds like something the FBI should investigate.

Incidentally, Josh Malcolm's daughter, who lives at his address, was being paid by the North Carolina Democratic party out of a federal campaign fund which was in turn funded by the McCready campaign. Malcolm should have recused himself rather than involve himself in an investigation which could conceivably involve his daughter.

Sounds you like should contact your congressman and make sure this info is passed onto the House committee that will be investigating the crimes here.

[jimrtex]

“Republicans cheating is unmentionable, but can I interest you in some gently used Democratic shenanigans?”

Of these three contests which look suspicious.

Contest 1
    ED   EV   AB
A  538  452  437
B  356  198   17
C   47   11    2

Contest 2
    ED   EV   AB
D 1114  719  255
E   98   69  211

Contest 3
    ED  EV   AB
F 1197 1054 120
G  390  230   1

ED = Election day in person.
EV = Early voting (one stop).
AB = Absentee by mail.

Contest 3, where 99.2% of the absentee vote was for candidate F, but he also received 78.4% of the in person vote. In person voters may include some folks who weren't familiar with some races, and may have voted based on their first impression of a name.

Contest 2, where candidate E received 45.3% of the absentee vote, but only 7.9% of the in person vote.

Contest 1, where candidate A received 95.8% of the absentee vote, but also 61.1% of the in-person vote.

[Tender Branson]

Funny to see the NC GOP winding around like a filthy snake.

The NC GOP is a fu**ing disgrace.

Time for Pelosi and the House to chop of its head and order new elections there. This situation cannot be tolerated to last for another year or so.

[TomC]

Records show NCSBE Chair had frequent contact with figure in NC-09 investigation during ’18 election

Given that it was Democrats and this is in the rural South, could the Klan be behind it?

Oh! You live in the 1940s before the KKK started switching to your Republican Party. That really clears a lot up about your world view. Indeed, see if you can get J Edgar Hoover to investigate.

[TomC]

“Republicans cheating is unmentionable, but can I interest you in some gently used Democratic shenanigans?”

Of these three contests which look suspicious.[sic]

Contest 1
    ED   EV   AB
A  538  452  437
B  356  198   17
C   47   11    2

Contest 2
    ED   EV   AB
D 1114  719  255
E   98   69  211

Contest 3
    ED  EV   AB
F 1197 1054 120
G  390  230   1

ED = Election day in person.
EV = Early voting (one stop).
AB = Absentee by mail.

Contest 3, where 99.2% of the absentee vote was for candidate F, but he also received 78.4% of the in person vote. In person voters may include some folks who weren't familiar with some races, and may have voted based on their first impression of a name.

Contest 2, where candidate E received 45.3% of the absentee vote, but only 7.9% of the in person vote.

Contest 1, where candidate A received 95.8% of the absentee vote, but also 61.1% of the in-person vote.

The one you’ve been in denial about for 29 pages.

I know, it hurts when the home team gets caught cheating. Man up and cut Harris loose; he’s making you all look bad.

[jimrtex]

Records show NCSBE Chair had frequent contact with figure in NC-09 investigation during ’18 election

When Jens Lutz resigned from the Bladen County Board of Elections he said that members of the Democratic Party had gone too far when they brought his family into it. Ben Snyder, the Democratic chair for the county said it was a husband and wife who were behind it.

Given that it was Democrats and this is in the rural South, could the Klan be behind it? It sounds like something the FBI should investigate.

Incidentally, Josh Malcolm's daughter, who lives at his address, was being paid by the North Carolina Democratic party out of a federal campaign fund which was in turn funded by the McCready campaign. Malcolm should have recused himself rather than involve himself in an investigation which could conceivably involve his daughter.

Sounds you like should contact your congressman and make sure this info is passed onto the House committee that will be investigating the crimes here.

Democratic Congress won't care.

[jimrtex]

“Republicans cheating is unmentionable, but can I interest you in some gently used Democratic shenanigans?”

Of these three contests which look suspicious.[sic]

Contest 1
    ED   EV   AB
A  538  452  437
B  356  198   17
C   47   11    2

Contest 2
    ED   EV   AB
D 1114  719  255
E   98   69  211

Contest 3
    ED  EV   AB
F 1197 1054 120
G  390  230   1

ED = Election day in person.
EV = Early voting (one stop).
AB = Absentee by mail.

Contest 3, where 99.2% of the absentee vote was for candidate F, but he also received 78.4% of the in person vote. In person voters may include some folks who weren't familiar with some races, and may have voted based on their first impression of a name.

Contest 2, where candidate E received 45.3% of the absentee vote, but only 7.9% of the in person vote.

Contest 1, where candidate A received 95.8% of the absentee vote, but also 61.1% of the in-person vote.

The one you’ve been in denial about for 29 pages.

I know, it hurts when the home team gets caught cheating. Man up and cut Harris loose; he’s making you all look bad.

Which one is that? Try to use your analytical skills.

[jimrtex]

Time for Pelosi and the House to chop of its head and order new elections there. This situation cannot be tolerated to last for another year or so.

What empirical evidence is there of fraud that would affect the result?

[Badger]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Writ of Mandamus to certify the lawful winner of the NC-9 election.

I eat, the thief is looking for the course to certify his win regardless.

But please gym, come back at us with a wall of text talking about elections from 6 years ago that somehow disproves the literal mountain of evidence Harris committed widespread both body in this particular election.

[Badger]

Time for Pelosi and the House to chop of its head and order new elections there. This situation cannot be tolerated to last for another year or so.

What empirical evidence is there of fraud that would affect the result?

After 29 pages of details about that, if you seriously can ask that question at this point, you are obstinate, not empirical.

[Virginiá]

I guess it's a bit late but it seems like jim needs his own Bladen County megathread

[Badger]

I guess it's a bit late but it seems like jim needs his own Bladen County megathread

Why old Atlas desperately needs a like function.

[brucejoel99]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Not precisely. The House recognizes the existence of a vacancy when a seat is filled and then becomes unfilled.  In this case, we simply have an election that has not concluded. You can't call a special election because there's already an election taking place - it simply has not concluded. NC could certify Harris right now if it so chose, but it so far has not done so, and certification is required to seat a member, except in cases where there is no question over who was elected, which is obviously not the case here.

In order to call a new election, either the house would have to take a separate and deliberate action of declaring the seat to be vacant (which would invite partisan criticisms), or NC must officially declare the election null and void. So far, neither has happened. Once either does, a special is called.

While this is indeed the case, when it comes to contested election cases in the House of Representatives, if/when a Harris certificate were to be presented to the House, McCready can contest the result in the House, which, as the final arbiter, may make the conclusive determination of a claim to the seat. In this scenario, the House may refer the question of the right to the House seat to the Committee on House Administration for it to investigate & report to the full House for disposition. After the investigation, the committee would issue a report & file a resolution concerning the disposition of the case, to be approved by the full House. The committee may recommend, & the House may approve by a simple majority vote, a decision affirming the right of Harris to the seat, may seat McCready, or find that neither party is entitled to be finally seated & declare a vacancy, resulting in a special election.

While a vacancy declared post-House investigation would likely still invite partisan criticisms, not least from the NC GOP, it would definitely invite *less* partisan criticism than would the House simply choosing to (without an investigation) declare the seat vacant as soon as Harris presented a certificate.

[jimrtex]

Time for Pelosi and the House to chop of its head and order new elections there. This situation cannot be tolerated to last for another year or so.

What empirical evidence is there of fraud that would affect the result?

After 29 pages of details about that, if you seriously can ask that question at this point, you are obstinate, not empirical.

In Bladen County, 58.9% of election day voters cast a vote for Mark Harris.

In Bladen County, 55.8% of early voting voters (in person) cast a vote for Mark Harris.

In Bladen County 61.4% of early voting voters (absentee by mail) cast a vote for Mark Harris.

Conclusion:  Bladen County voters vote pretty much the same regardless of the manner of voting.

The one-stop location is in Elizabethtown, which is more Democratic-leaning than the western part of the county. While would-be early voters could drive to Elizabethtown, it is somewhat inconvenient.

In 2016, there were four one-stop locations in the county. The Republican candidate for president received 76.7% of the early vote in Bladenboro, 68.2% in Dublin, 8.5% in East Arcadia, and 47.5% in Elizabethtown. Bladenboro and Bethel (Dublin) townships are whiter than the county as a whole, Carver's Creek (East Arcadia) is blacker.

With the one-stop locations in Bladenboro and Dublin not operating in 2018, a one-stop voter from 2016 had four options:

(1) Vote on election day in the local precinct
(2) Vote at the one-stop in Elizabethtown.
(3) Vote absentee by mail.
(4) Not vote.

Overall turnout was down by 12.5%. This is not too remarkable since 2016 featured a presidential election; a gubernatorial election; and a senatorial election. It is unlikely that many voters took option (4) because of the lack of convenience. If they did not vote, it is because they found the congressional race less compelling.

If we assume that the 12.5% of 2016 voters who did not vote in 2018 were evenly distributed among the various methods of voting., then

Early Voting Bladenboro, Dublin, East Arcadia

2016: 2936; 2018: 0 (-2936)

Election Day:

2016: 3076; 2018: 4276 (+1200)

Early Voting Elizabethtown

2016: 2832; 2018: 4430 (+1598)

Absentee

2016: 543; 2018: (+141).

So it appears that

54.4% drove to Elizabethtown to vote early.
40.8% voted on election day.
4.8% voted absentee.

[jimrtex]

henster posted more details in the general election night thread:

This comment on reddit is interesting.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Charlotte/comments/a10kqk/nc_elections_board_declines_to_certify_9th/ean1n30/?st=jp1g5esc&sh=15095a86

That's strange enough to warrant a deeper look.

If nothing else, I want a reporter to visit the precinct which doubled (!) turnout between 2016 and 2018 while the county as a whole saw turnout go down 12%. Must be a fascinating place.

Is this a rhetorical question?

Why is it OK for you to mention the 2016 election, but others are not?

Is it because you are moderator?