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June 20, 2019, 04:20:51 pm
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  Congressional Special Election (NC-3 and NC-9 General on 9/10)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (NC-3 and NC-9 General on 9/10)  (Read 47614 times)
The Mikado
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« Reply #1050 on: May 23, 2019, 07:42:16 pm »
« edited: May 31, 2019, 07:59:43 am by Brittain33 »

Thread title changed because Tender was nagging me, but I really wish you guys would retire this old thread and have one about Congressional Special Elections from the start.

Oh well.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #1051 on: May 24, 2019, 03:55:19 pm »

Dan McQueasy trailing 46-42

sad!

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/NC-9-Executive-Summary.pdf
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1052 on: May 24, 2019, 04:26:33 pm »

It might be an R-friendly sample, but I still think that Bishop will win about 51-48.
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Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« Reply #1053 on: May 24, 2019, 06:21:08 pm »

Dan McQueasy trailing 46-42

sad!

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/NC-9-Executive-Summary.pdf
Tilt D->Tilt R
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #1054 on: May 25, 2019, 03:22:58 pm »

Umm that has trump at +16
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #1055 on: May 27, 2019, 02:40:11 pm »

I think a Trump +16 sample is a good bit too favorable to Bishop.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1056 on: May 27, 2019, 07:23:37 pm »

Trump favoring sample or not, this race is lean R. North Carolina is only like .1% less disappointing than Florida when it comes to its recent elections, and that's entirely due to Roy Cooper's victory back in 2016. North Carolina, is simply still a tough nut for Democrats to crack. This goes for Cooper's re-election, unseating Thom Tillis, and even these special elections. I don't see McCready being able to get the Democratic votes that he did in the high turnout (relatively) in the 2018 midterms. It's a consequence of the election do-over. I think it's going to resemble an O'Connor and Tipirneni sort of situation, just in reverse. I just hope he keeps it similarly close enough just so a "Dems in disarray/momentum shifting because of special elections!" media narrative doesn't occur again.
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Sen. Vern
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« Reply #1057 on: May 27, 2019, 08:22:54 pm »

It's because Democrats are getting too far to the left for rural NC to vote for them.
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Arch
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« Reply #1058 on: May 27, 2019, 11:15:23 pm »

It's because Democrats are getting too far to the left for rural NC to vote for them.

Democrats are practically always "too far to the left," while Republicans can keep going further right, and these voters barely bat an eye. Call me skeptical.
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gracile
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« Reply #1059 on: May 27, 2019, 11:28:41 pm »

It's because Democrats are getting too far to the left for rural NC to vote for them.

Democrats are practically always "too far to the left," while Republicans can keep going further right, and these voters barely bat an eye. Call me skeptical.

I don't agree with the OP's point about Democrats being "too far left", but I think the Republicans are slight favorites here just by the district's nature. NC-09 still leans more conservative, and I feel like in a low-turnout special it will be hard for McCready to find the extra 1% or so to give him the win.
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« Reply #1060 on: May 28, 2019, 03:56:50 am »

It's because Democrats are getting too far to the left for rural NC to vote for them.

Democrats are practically always "too far to the left," while Republicans can keep going further right, and these voters barely bat an eye. Call me skeptical.

In this particular case we talk about North Carolina district with considerable rural component. It's all, but impossinble, to be "too far to the right" in this district, but it's very easy to be "too far to the left" (even pragmatic liberal will fall into this "cathegory").....
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Elliot County Populist
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« Reply #1061 on: May 28, 2019, 06:58:53 am »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.
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Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« Reply #1062 on: May 28, 2019, 07:00:14 am »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.
Yep, McCready won every county except Bladen (duh) and suburban Union but still "lost".
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1063 on: May 28, 2019, 09:05:04 am »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1064 on: May 28, 2019, 12:34:26 pm »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1065 on: May 29, 2019, 03:28:22 am »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".
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Elliot County Populist
lfromnj
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« Reply #1066 on: May 30, 2019, 11:20:22 pm »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1067 on: May 30, 2019, 11:43:20 pm »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..
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Elliot County Populist
lfromnj
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« Reply #1068 on: May 30, 2019, 11:54:45 pm »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..


Ideology matters far less than #pundits think. Does it say his state senate district is far right despite being left of NC as a whole because it voted for him?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1069 on: May 31, 2019, 12:20:34 am »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..


Ideology matters far less than #pundits think. Does it say his state senate district is far right despite being left of NC as a whole because it voted for him?

Well, usually left-leaning district doesn't vote for rightists and vice versa. Exceptions happen, but - not too frequently...
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1070 on: May 31, 2019, 12:40:11 am »

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

The fact, that such person as Harris, who is clearly far right, got approximately the same number of votes as McCready, who, by present Democratic standards, is "rather conservative Blue Dog", and the only poll we have, where also very conservative Bishop leads McCready by 4 despite all scandals and his own ultraconservative reputation, is a proof to me, that in this district it's really difficult to be "too far to the right" and very easy - "too far to the left". If McCready wins - he, probably, will be among 10 "most conservative" House Democrat, but even that may be "not enough".

Bishops state senate district is Trump +3 but he won by 6 points in 2018 and its very suburban. He isn't a weak candidate by any measure.

I never said he is weak. But he has considerable notoriety for his legislative activity, and is rather far right himself. Nevertheless - he leads. That says at least something about the district..


Ideology matters far less than #pundits think. Does it say his state senate district is far right despite being left of NC as a whole because it voted for him?

Well, usually left-leaning district doesn't vote for rightists and vice versa. Exceptions happen, but - not too frequently...

I mean a trump+3 suburban district is clearly a leftish/swingish leaning district in a year like 2018 yet it voted for Mcready.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1071 on: May 31, 2019, 02:37:19 am »

^ Let's wait and see. In less then 3,5 month we will know results, and many things will be much clearer...
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Elliot County Populist
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« Reply #1072 on: May 31, 2019, 10:20:24 am »

^ Let's wait and see. In less then 3,5 month we will know results, and many things will be much clearer...

True but just wondering would you consider MN 07 a left leaning district in 2014 because it voted for Al Franken in a GOP wave year?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1073 on: May 31, 2019, 10:25:33 am »

^ Let's wait and see. In less then 3,5 month we will know results, and many things will be much clearer...

True but just wondering would you consider MN 07 a left leaning district in 2014 because it voted for Al Franken in a GOP wave year?

No. But it was less right-wing  in 2014 then now, considerably...
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« Reply #1074 on: May 31, 2019, 09:18:13 pm »

This race it Tilt R at worst. The biggest issue McCready has is he cannot afford to lose any support in Meck (which is 33% of the seat's population), but Bishop just happens to represent the exact part of Meck that McCready needs to win. If McCready only wins Meck by a smaller margin, or loses it outright, he can't possibly win. This seat is very, very tough for a Democrat to win barring a complete dumpster fire of a candidate like Mark Harris.
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