Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[lfromnj]

ok yeah I can understand weird voting habits in a county between two different parties but yeah that primary is super suspicious. But then wouldn't Pittenger probably win the primary  as Harris would be scandal plagued? That would make it tougher for mcready to win.

[lfromnj]

Can the democrats please stop trying to steal elections?

It's a bipartisan board voting unanimously. If it was a 5 to 4 decision I would be outraged too but a unanimous decision suggests maybe there is a problem

[lfromnj]

Lets wait before calling it GOP voter fraud. It does seem to look like it but can we all just wait?

[lfromnj]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

[lfromnj]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

I mean there are instances where the House refusing to seat someone would be legitimate, such as where the state refuses to investigate and take action on rather blatant fraud. Not that North Carolina is an instance of this (so far, though case looks strong), but the House being able to refuse to seat is a good backstop in a country where states hold a lot of power over elections to Congress.

Also, if the NCGOP tries to short-circuit this investigation in any way, then yes, it would make sense to refuse to seat him. I think the state party is already suing to force them to certify it, so that is one step towards trying to sweep this under the rug.

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Overall I think it wouldn't be wise to refuse to seat Harris though, unless it becomes clear that there are more fraudulent votes for him that put him over the top. Democrats have to remember that just because you can do something, does not mean you should. It's also something I really wish Republicans would learn as well (no hope there tho). Otherwise, it'd be better to just dismantle the group responsible for these fraudulent ballots and put them in prison, along with anyone who supported them.

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

[lfromnj]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

I mean there are instances where the House refusing to seat someone would be legitimate, such as where the state refuses to investigate and take action on rather blatant fraud. Not that North Carolina is an instance of this (so far, though case looks strong), but the House being able to refuse to seat is a good backstop in a country where states hold a lot of power over elections to Congress.

Also, if the NCGOP tries to short-circuit this investigation in any way, then yes, it would make sense to refuse to seat him. I think the state party is already suing to force them to certify it, so that is one step towards trying to sweep this under the rug.

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Overall I think it wouldn't be wise to refuse to seat Harris though, unless it becomes clear that there are more fraudulent votes for him that put him over the top. Democrats have to remember that just because you can do something, does not mean you should. It's also something I really wish Republicans would learn as well (no hope there tho). Otherwise, it'd be better to just dismantle the group responsible for these fraudulent ballots and put them in prison, along with anyone who supported them.

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

Oh for Pete's sake...

"Left leaning"?!? The board voted unanimously, repeat unanimously, including every single Republican on the board, not to certify the election due to blatant fraud.

What is with you? You've rarely been so hackish to my recollection.

I don't have a problem with the board atm but from my research the indie is left leaning I saw somewhere on tiwtter. Anyway I will continue to trust the board as long as the decisions are 6-3 or higher. I am just against the idea of the house deciding this election unless it's user obvious

[lfromnj]

As of right now Id say is a 70 percent chance of fraud happening . 40 60 the fraud affects the margin mathematically and about 25 percent that Harris is involved

[lfromnj]

As of right now Id say is a 70 percent chance of fraud happening . 40 60 the fraud affects the margin mathematically and about 25 percent that Harris is involved

IMHO, that 70% figure is extremely low based on what we know that's far. It would take an absolute sea change in the facts to be otherwise.

It is almost impossible to come up with a quantitative figures to How likely it would have reversed the margin. Again, the reports indicate writable evidence of actual vote shredding. However, the numbers of day of absentee balloting end the Republican friendly Natura of them was enormous, and probably without even a single shredded Democratic ballot, not to mention how many ballots that were collected from McCready voters in filled out for Harris as the affidavits repeatedly indicate, it would have alone likely flip the election. But again, the only thing one can say is a considerable number of ballots work Forge, and an unknown number destroyed in an ultra close election. I think you're just projecting here and trying to say it doesn't matter.

Third, if you are saying a 25% chance that Harris personally new about these efforts, as opposed to members of his campaign which it appears near certain? Yeah, I'll say that there's at least a 25% chance of that.

OK 80 percent but anyway Im not sure Harris is personally involved and we could give him the benefit of the doubt for now

[lfromnj]

FF joe Bruno for doing all this reporting.

[lfromnj]

Yeah now im pretty certain there was fraud but now there are two questions

Did the fraud affect the final outcome in this election or the primary.
If not did Mark Harris himself have direction knowledge about this fraud. I would there there is a 50/50 of either or both of these happening and in that scenario I would say there a 90% chance we get a new election,8% chance that Harris is declared the winner and 2% that Mcready is outright declared the winner.

Also harris twitter account had a direct tweet

https://twitter.com/MarkHarrisNC9/status/1068631295218073600

[lfromnj]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-heck-is-happening-in-that-north-carolina-house-race/

538 article of the entire situation.

[lfromnj]

although the NC GOP is a complete sh**t show and I don't trust them I really wish the board was a bit more open about the situation. Most of the info we know is from journalists going directly to the county.

[lfromnj]

Florida was more the dems fault and a bit of worried republicans. Honestly the fact Gillum unconceded was not very classy when no recount overturns a 50k margin.
However as NC 9th I am growing more confident that atleast something happened on the county level.

[lfromnj]

Tbf the gerrymander was an own goal by the NC dems. They repealed the governor veto. If they didn't Dole would have been able to veto it.

[lfromnj]

The title needs to be changed to 7-2 refuses to certify

[lfromnj]

If this does go to another election, what is the precedent? When would it be and would there be another primary?

NH senate 1974 was within 10 votes  so they had a special election

[lfromnj]

btw whats everyone opinion on California's ballot harvesting. No I am not using whataboutism as this would be comparing legalized prostitution to illegal prostitution as in California it is legal.

Does anyone else feel like that should be illegal in California?

[lfromnj]

A special election is Tilt r imo. It resembles ohio 12th overall

[lfromnj]

Pittenger v harris is anyway like mini moore and strange. Both are weak candidates. Its just that Pittenger looks better so everyone he's a strong candidate.

[lfromnj]

btw whats everyone opinion on California's ballot harvesting. No I am not using whataboutism as this would be comparing legalized prostitution to illegal prostitution as in California it is legal.

Does anyone else feel like that should be illegal in California?

I consider myself vehemently pro-voter in terms of restrictions vs access, and I'm not sure I agree that campaign workers and other paid individuals should be able to take ballots and return them. I feel like there is too much room for abuse, and California's elections have become so voter-friendly that it is hard to argue that this is needed.

I want to try and strike a balance between voter-friendly policy and a free-for-all that results in some high-profile incident that the right never stops using against Democrats as a way to delegitimize an election. With trust in our institutions constantly declining, the last thing we need is more reasons for people to lose faith in our elections.

OTOH, "ballot harvesting" is not even legal in North Carolina and it still happened, so whether its' technically legal or not may not be that important when it comes to fraud.

I think I can mostly agree with what you said. I mean I just find the idea in California bad but it's still legal but in carolina it's illegal so if they can prove it happened with either Harris having knowledge or if the harvested ballots were destroyed a new election should be called

[lfromnj]

Anyway maybe there could be some restrictions on it in California at the very least? Perhaps you have to register as a harvest or ? Would anyone support that ?

[lfromnj]

Has anyone pointed out these mail-in results yet?

whats the other county data. It looks suspicious but I would need to see it next to the other counties.

[lfromnj]

yeah as someone who was a bit skeptical of the claims at first but said fine let them be investigated I am now all but certain that there was fraud. Now the investigation is either if Harris had direct knowledge or if the fraud affected the margin.

[lfromnj]

Also IMO  Cooper should have appointed one of the GOP members as head of the board while the replacement is still a dem.
It seems the GOP members are fairly bipartisan and willing to work so he could picked one of the two.
By replacing a contraversial dem with another dem the optics aren't great.

[lfromnj]

Also IMO  Cooper should have appointed one of the GOP members as head of the board while the replacement is still a dem.
It seems the GOP members are fairly bipartisan and willing to work so he could picked one of the two.
By replacing a contraversial dem with another dem the optics aren't great.

They are working together for now, but this is North Carolina. That could easily change, especially given that there is a House seat at stake. The NCGOP has built up a solid reputation as totally untrustworthy and consumed by greed and a lust for power, so they should never be given the benefit of the doubt. Now, if we were in another state, perhaps you're right, sure.

I mean the optics would clearly look much better. Or atleast the indie should have been appointed the head. It really isn't good to make the head the head a dem again IMO.