Out on a limb

[StevenNick]

In honor of the new year (whatever the new year has to do with anything) I'm going to make some detailed predictions about the upcoming election:

President--
Bush beats Howard Dean with 56% of the popular vote to Dean's 42% with the other 2 percent going to various third party candidates.  Bush carries every state he did in 2000 plus NM, Iowa, Wisonsin, Minnesota, Maine, Washington, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Senate--
Due to higher republican turnout for Bush, republicans pick up every open democratic senate seat in the South.  Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana will all be republican pick ups.  Republicans will win every race by at least 5 points.

Republicans will lose the seat in Illinois (52-48 dem).

Republicans will narrowly defend the Alaska seat (I give it to Murkowski by a three point margin).

Republicans will not have much trouble keeping the Oklahoma senate seat (55-45 republican).

Republicans pull off a major upset voctory in South Dakota unseating Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a 5 point margin.  Analysts everywhere will be shocked by the extent of Thune's victory.

Democrats successfully defend Boxer's seat in California, but republicans will come closer than most people will have thought to unseating her (51-48 in favor of Boxer).

Republicans pull off the trifecta here in Washington.  Bush wins at the top of the ticket and carries Rossi (governor) and Nethercutt (senate) with him by slim margins.

Some of these are fairly realistic and others are, well....

In any event, I expect republican will have pushed their senate total up to at least 55 by the time the night is through.

What are your predictions?

[12th Doctor]

I like your prediction.  I think that Washington may be going out on a limb, but the rest of it acctually sounds pretty solid.  Watch out for a Green Party candidate to steal a lot of thunder from a Dem candidate in Alaska.

[jravnsbo]

hadn't heard about Greens in Alaska, tell more please, got a link?

[jravnsbo]

Pretty solid, margins are always hard to pick, but I KNOW we will win NC, SC< GA, FL I think so and LA- wait until Dems pick their candidate.

LOse IL close and hodl the rest.

Yes we want Thune to run, and we willg vie Daschle all he can handle.

House, you missed- I'd say 238 for GOP.

President Bush gets reelected gaining in the uppermidwest.

In honor of the new year (whatever the new year has to do with anything) I'm going to make some detailed predictions about the upcoming election:

President--
Bush beats Howard Dean with 56% of the popular vote to Dean's 42% with the other 2 percent going to various third party candidates.  Bush carries every state he did in 2000 plus NM, Iowa, Wisonsin, Minnesota, Maine, Washington, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Senate--
Due to higher republican turnout for Bush, republicans pick up every open democratic senate seat in the South.  Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana will all be republican pick ups.  Republicans will win every race by at least 5 points.

Republicans will lose the seat in Illinois (52-48 dem).

Republicans will narrowly defend the Alaska seat (I give it to Murkowski by a three point margin).

Republicans will not have much trouble keeping the Oklahoma senate seat (55-45 republican).

Republicans pull off a major upset voctory in South Dakota unseating Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a 5 point margin.  Analysts everywhere will be shocked by the extent of Thune's victory.

Democrats successfully defend Boxer's seat in California, but republicans will come closer than most people will have thought to unseating her (51-48 in favor of Boxer).

Republicans pull off the trifecta here in Washington.  Bush wins at the top of the ticket and carries Rossi (governor) and Nethercutt (senate) with him by slim margins.

Some of these are fairly realistic and others are, well....

In any event, I expect republican will have pushed their senate total up to at least 55 by the time the night is through.

What are your predictions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In 2000 a lot of Inuit voted for LaDuke(Nader's VP candidate who is a Native American and from Minnesota)

[Gustaf]

In 2000 a lot of Inuit voted for LaDuke(Nader's VP candidate who is a Native American and from Minnesota)

An escimoe! Cool...

[© tweed]

Once again, Daschle will not lose.  Thune lost to Johnson by 500 votes or so, and the only thing that saved Johnson was Dashcle's support.  Thune *should* run for SD's open House seat, as he would have a far greater chance at winning that.

President: Bush defeats Dean about 51-47%, with the toher third candidates splitting hte vote.  Bush picks up Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and New Mexico.  That calculates into a 334-204 Bush win.  But after Bush make a "pig's ear" of it in his second term, the Republicans will have to go moderate with a Giuliani or McCain candidacy.

GOP makes moderate gains in Gubernatorial, Senate, and house races.

[jravnsbo]

Too late, Thune is running, I have it on good sources and he will announce tonight.

Once again, Daschle will not lose.  Thune lost to Johnson by 500 votes or so, and the only thing that saved Johnson was Dashcle's support.  Thune *should* run for SD's open House seat, as he would have a far greater chance at winning that.

President: Bush defeats Dean about 51-47%, with the toher third candidates splitting hte vote.  Bush picks up Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and New Mexico.  That calculates into a 334-204 Bush win.  But after Bush make a "pig's ear" of it in his second term, the Republicans will have to go moderate with a Giuliani or McCain candidacy.

GOP makes moderate gains in Gubernatorial, Senate, and house races.

[© tweed]

Too late, Thune is running, I have it on good sources and he will announce tonight.

Once again, Daschle will not lose.  Thune lost to Johnson by 500 votes or so, and the only thing that saved Johnson was Dashcle's support.  Thune *should* run for SD's open House seat, as he would have a far greater chance at winning that.

President: Bush defeats Dean about 51-47%, with the toher third candidates splitting hte vote.  Bush picks up Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and New Mexico.  That calculates into a 334-204 Bush win.  But after Bush make a "pig's ear" of it in his second term, the Republicans will have to go moderate with a Giuliani or McCain candidacy.

GOP makes moderate gains in Gubernatorial, Senate, and house races.

If he is, he just made a major career mistake.

[StevenNick]

Too late, Thune is running, I have it on good sources and he will announce tonight.

Once again, Daschle will not lose.  Thune lost to Johnson by 500 votes or so, and the only thing that saved Johnson was Dashcle's support.  Thune *should* run for SD's open House seat, as he would have a far greater chance at winning that.

President: Bush defeats Dean about 51-47%, with the toher third candidates splitting hte vote.  Bush picks up Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and New Mexico.  That calculates into a 334-204 Bush win.  But after Bush make a "pig's ear" of it in his second term, the Republicans will have to go moderate with a Giuliani or McCain candidacy.

GOP makes moderate gains in Gubernatorial, Senate, and house races.

If he is, he just made a major career mistake.

I'm not so sure.  Daschle is representing a state that is overwhelmingly pro-Bush.  He really pissed a lot of people off in SD with some of his wackier anti-Bush statements right before the war.  A lot of analysts actually consider Daschle a weaker candidate than Johnson was.  And Daschle's fund-raising advantage will be blunted by a flood of donations to Thune from republicans nation-wide who are eager to see Daschle be unseated.

I think Thune is going to pull of an upset.

[StevenNick]

I like your prediction.  I think that Washington may be going out on a limb, but the rest of it acctually sounds pretty solid.  Watch out for a Green Party candidate to steal a lot of thunder from a Dem candidate in Alaska.

You're probably right about my predictions for Washington.  I'm just very eager to see Republicans win something statewide here.  I do think we have a very good shot at winning the governorship.  We've got a good candidate lined up while democrats will have a pretty bloody primary fight that is sure to produce a fairly weak candidate.  And Gov. Locke (D) isn't too popular here after he made some pretty painful budget cuts about six months ago.  The senate seat is a long shot though.

[Dave from Michigan]

Good predictions but can the republicans win daschles seat I heard it will be close but daschle should win.

[Michael Z]

To say that Daschle will lose by a 5-point margin seems a bit overconfident, but we'll see.

In a way I can see it happen since SD is quite conservative... but it would still surprise me.

[Dave from Michigan]

He's running for his I think 4th term so the people have elected him 3 times and incumbents usually win so you would think he would have the advantage.  

[© tweed]

Daschle will win fairly norrowly.  I don't see an upset happening there.

[jravnsbo]

I'd say it is a toss up,  He voted for cloture but didn't lift a finger as minority leader to get the voteds to close it on the energy bill which has a lot of provisions friendly to SD>

He got hammered int eh press on this.

Headline was, "Does Daschle really have clout?"

Daschle will win fairly norrowly.  I don't see an upset happening there.

[Michael Z]

I don't see him losing either, but I still think it will be tight; the way some Republicans have branded Daschle "unpatriotic" (unfairly IMHO) because of his views on Iraq could work against him. The political environment has changed a lot since Daschle's last victory in SD and his brand of politician isn't the most popular right now.

[jravnsbo]

Plus Thune is very popular and a llot of people felt sorry for how he was treated in last election.

Should be interesting with Bush at the top of the ticket and maybe Dean on the other side.

I don't see him losing either, but I still think it will be tight; the way some Republicans have branded Daschle "unpatriotic" (unfairly IMHO) because of his views on Iraq could work against him. The political environment has changed a lot since Daschle's last victory in SD and his brand of politician isn't the most popular right now.

[Dave from Michigan]

It will be a great race to watch.

[© tweed]

How much do you want to bet that Dashle will lose?  I'll give you a 5% on Thune as the dog.

[jravnsbo]

You'll give 5% and take Daschle?  If so DEAL, name how much you want to lose.

How much do you want to bet that Dashle will lose?  I'll give you a 5% on Thune as the dog.

[© tweed]

I'm taking Daschle.  You're taking thune since you think he will beat Daschle.

[jravnsbo]

yes and you said 5% also.  

I'm taking Daschle.  You're taking thune since you think he will beat Daschle.

[© tweed]

I would give 5% since Thune would be the underdog.

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

[Michael Z]

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

From the ones I know of, I'd say McCain in Arizona or Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado.