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  Predict the 2019 elections
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Author Topic: Predict the 2019 elections  (Read 5679 times)
UWS
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« on: November 29, 2018, 09:06:00 am »

Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2018, 10:42:34 am »



KY could really go either way due to Bevin's unpopularity but the partisanship of the state makes me think he'll narrowly hold on. Edwards should be fine in LA, unless Kennedy runs. MS is a pure tossup, but the weakness of the potential GOP nominees and the close Special election results make me think its a Democratic pickup.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2018, 12:16:14 pm »

Usual words of caution about how early it is apply.

KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-15%.
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-6%
MS: Toss-Up, the Republican wins by 2-5%
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New York Dude
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2018, 05:33:37 pm »

Kentucky: Bevin +9 (political trends since 2015 counterbalancing his unpopularity and the more Democratic environment)
Louisiana: R +8 if Kennedy runs, a near-perfect tie if the Republican nominee is anyone else.
Mississippi: R+2
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olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2018, 05:09:29 pm »

Beasher wins 51-49 in KY
JBE wins 51-49 avoid runoff in LA

Reeves wins 55-45 in MS



2019-2020
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Jon Tester
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2018, 05:55:57 pm »

Ky: Bevin by 13

Ms: Hood by 1

La: Edwards by 5
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2018, 09:13:12 am »

KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +10-15 (first round)
MS: Hood +1-3
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olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2018, 03:20:18 pm »

MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2018, 09:44:53 am »

MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least

Surely no. Wyoming is much more Republican, for example. And not only Wyoming. Now, probably, even West Virginia is more Republican.
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Monarch
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2018, 06:19:22 pm »

Dems win Louisiana comfortably, lose Kentucky narrowly, and lose Mississippi by about 5 to 10.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2018, 08:11:36 am »

KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +4-6
MS: Hood +1-3
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Governor Peanut
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« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2018, 11:55:38 am »

KY: Strong Likely R, not Safe because nothing's Safe this far out, but close to it.

LA: Lean D, could move to Likely.

MS: Tossup, I'd say Hood pulls it out.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2018, 04:26:15 am »

Right now: (i stress these words as strongly as possible)

KY: Likely R
LA: Lean D
MS: Tilt R
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2018, 04:33:38 am »

Zell am See mayor & city council (March 2019): Strong ÷VP

EU election (May 2019): Strong ÷VP

Vorarlberg state election (September 2019): Strong ÷VP
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Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: December 26, 2018, 03:13:22 am »

LA-Bel Edwards +2
MS-Reeves +4
KY-Bevin +8

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538Electoral
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« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2018, 05:23:10 am »

Kentucky and Mississippi both Lean R, Louisiana I think is Lean D at the moment.
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pops
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« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2018, 06:53:09 pm »

MS R+8
KY R+7
LA R+3

But this could change easily.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2018, 03:25:42 pm »

Img
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2018, 03:37:40 pm »

Kentucky Bevin 50% Beshear 47%
Louisiana Abraham 51% Edwards 48%
Mississippi Reeves 52% Hood 46%
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TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2018, 05:39:50 pm »

Img


Looks like youíre predicting a Hood win. And your KY map is probably more realistic than a lot of the other delusions about this race that people have on here, but I would still give the Dem Franklin County.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2018, 06:19:08 pm »

Img


Looks like youíre predicting a Hood win. And your KY map is probably more realistic than a lot of the other delusions about this race that people have on here, but I would still give the Dem Franklin County.
Democrats picked up 8 seats in the KY state senate where Trump won 80%+. Clearly some backlash against levin. I'd at least flip Rowan and maybe Eliott
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #21 on: December 27, 2018, 10:21:58 pm »



This
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #22 on: December 28, 2018, 12:21:20 am »

Kentucky: Matt Bevin (R) 48%, Andy Beshear 47.9%

Mississippi: Tate Reeves (R) 50.9%, Jim Hood (D) 48.4%

Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) 52% (avoids runoff), Ralph Abraham (R) 37%, Eddie Rispone (R) 10%
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2018, 10:20:42 pm »

Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2018, 02:24:09 pm »

Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep

Nah, Edwards is fine in LA, esp. considering Kennedy chose not to run
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