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  2016 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 79136 times)
Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #100 on: October 28, 2016, 07:40:50 pm »

Moving NV back out of Safe, but I would still consider it a pretty big upset if Trump won it.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #101 on: October 29, 2016, 10:00:05 pm »

Ratings



Safe D: 190
Likely D: 82   <-- Overall
Lean D: 51
Toss-Up: 36
Lean R: 32
Likely R: 65
Safe R: 82

Clinton: 323
Trump: 179
Toss-Up: 36

Prediction



Clinton/Kaine: 348
Trump/Pence: 190

Specific State and CD percentages
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #102 on: October 29, 2016, 11:57:59 pm »

Well, this is a change I never imagined I'd be making:

AK: Lean R -> Toss-Up

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NV less likely to flip than FL/GA/ME/MN/NC/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #103 on: October 30, 2016, 05:13:53 pm »



Hillary's still massively favored, but the odds of a landslide are approaching nil.

FL: Likely D -> Lean D
ME-02: Toss-Up -> Lean D
MO: Lean R -> Likely R
MT: Likely R -> Safe R
NE-01: Likely R -> Safe R
ND: Likely R -> Safe R
OH: Lean D -> Toss-Up
SD: Likely R -> Safe R
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #104 on: October 30, 2016, 07:04:15 pm »

Trump is probably getting a minor bounce, but Clinton still has 278 EVs at least leaning towards her, and one of these changes is actually in her favor:

FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up
ME-AL: Lean D -> Safe D

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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #105 on: October 31, 2016, 10:21:38 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 12:17:06 pm by Dwarven Dragon »

GA moves back to Lean R

Also locking in IN

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J. J.
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« Reply #106 on: November 02, 2016, 05:10:32 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 05:15:06 pm by J. J. »

I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go.  



I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.

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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #107 on: November 02, 2016, 09:40:48 pm »

The polling averages combined with the 538 odds obligate me to put NV back in the Toss-Up category (Trump actually leads in the 538 now-cast of NV). However, Hillary is still a very clear favorite in the election, as there is no indication whatsoever that Trump has caught up in WI, PA, NH, or NM. Trump needs one of those states to actually win.

In less surprising news, I have decided to lock in MO, MT, and SC.

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Stephen Curry is Awesome
olawakandi
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« Reply #108 on: November 02, 2016, 10:28:34 pm »



Clinton has 285 electors, Trump must win NC, FL and PA
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #109 on: November 03, 2016, 01:15:21 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 04:04:01 pm by Dwarven Dragon »

When it is all said and done, I believe Trump will carry the state of Utah.

Edit: And Arizona.

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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #110 on: November 04, 2016, 04:50:54 pm »

Putting a thumb on the scale for Trump in Iowa, Ohio, and NE-2. Still a long way to go for him though - he needs to take both North Carolina and Florida - I would put NC in Clinton's column if the election were being held today. He then needs to dislodge one of the lean Dem states and potentially supplement it.

If he takes PA - no supplement needed
If he takes WI - needs Nevada, or Alaska+ME-2, or Alaska alone if he's willing to settle for 269-269
If he takes NM - needs Nevada and Alaska
If he takes NH - needs Nevada and Alaska for 269-269, ME-2 as well for 270.

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NV less likely to flip than FL/GA/ME/MN/NC/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #111 on: November 05, 2016, 07:59:09 pm »



Some tightening, but Hillary will almost certainly be okay. Not many Ohio polls, assuming we don't get anything more, I'll tilt it to Trump.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #112 on: November 06, 2016, 06:43:18 pm »

Mine is the 2012 map except Ohio,Iowa, North Carolina flips
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bedstuy
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« Reply #113 on: November 07, 2016, 02:01:39 pm »

HRC wins.

Clinton 375

Trump 163

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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #114 on: November 07, 2016, 02:06:35 pm »

Well, I know I said I wasn't going to do it on IRC last night, but ultimately with the data from republican-leaning Quinnipiac University, the National poll from Monmouth, and the current 538 now-cast, I am going to put all of North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida in Clinton's column.

Alaska had a Clinton +3 poll recently that made dems very excited, but it hasn't been backed up by anything, and at the end of the day, Alaska has only voted for one Democrat since its inception as a state - LBJ in 1964. Hillary is not winning by an LBJ-esque margin, and it just seems that on a night where he is winning in GA, AZ, UT, OH, IA, and NE-2, Trump losing in Alaska would be very weird. It may happen, sure, but I just can't predict it.

ME-2 is obviously very close, but I have to make a pick at this point. Ultimately, considering the fact that Clinton may get a mini-mini-surge from Comey's 2nd non-indictment, the fact that Maine hasn't split its electoral votes before, and the fact that Clinton leads or ties in three of the top four polls on 538 by weight, I am giving this one to Clinton. But I wouldn't be surprised by a Trump upset.

My final prediction shows Clinton winning by a margin of 323 EVs to 215 EVs. This does not take into account the possibility of faithless electors throughout the nation.

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riceowl
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« Reply #115 on: November 07, 2016, 03:57:53 pm »

BREAKING: Mike Naso updated his prediction, is in the vicinity.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #116 on: November 07, 2016, 11:39:49 pm »
« Edited: November 07, 2016, 11:48:23 pm by ElectionsGuy »

Final Predictions

Here

Final Ratings



Safe D: 185
Likely D: 87
Lean D: 36
Toss-Up: 34
Lean R: 17
Likely R: 46
Safe R: 133

Clinton: 308
Trump: 196
Toss-up: 34
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #117 on: November 13, 2016, 09:38:36 pm »
« Edited: November 13, 2016, 09:40:48 pm by ElectionsGuy »

I'm doing a post-prediction analysis and recording how wrong I was in each state. Clinton +2 means I was 2 points more favorable for Clinton than the actual result, etc.

Alabama: Clinton +2
Alaska: Clinton +3
Arizona: Trump +2
Arkansas: Clinton +5
California: Trump +1 (so far)
Colorado: Clinton +4
Connecticut: Clinton +7
Delaware: Clinton +7
District of Columbia: Trump +4
Florida: Clinton +5
Georgia: Trump +1
Hawaii: Clinton +5
Idaho: Clinton +4 (+2 McMullin)
Illinois: Clinton +3
Indiana: Clinton +10 (ouch)
Iowa: Clinton +3
Kansas: Clinton +2
Kentucky: Clinton +6
Louisiana: Clinton +3
Maine: Clinton +13 (embarrassing)
Maryland: Clinton +3
Massachusetts: Trump +3
Michigan: Clinton +11
Minnesota: Clinton +10
Mississippi: Clinton +5
Missouri: Clinton +10
Montana: Clinton +7
Nebraska: Clinton +9
Nevada: Clinton +4
New Hampshire: Clinton +7
New Jersey: Clinton +3
New Mexico: Clinton +2
New York: Clinton +7
North Carolina: Clinton +5
North Dakota: Clinton +19 (oops)
Ohio: Clinton +7
Oklahoma: Clinton +4
Oregon: Clinton +6
Pennsylvania: Clinton +7
Rhode Island: Clinton +10
South Carolina: Clinton +6
South Dakota: Clinton +14 (another oops)
Tennessee: Clinton +5
Texas: Even
Utah: Trump +5 (McMullin +1)
Vermont: Clinton +3
Virginia: Clinton +3
Washington: Clinton +4 (so far)
West Virginia: Clinton +11 (ouch)
Wisconsin: Clinton +8
Wyoming: Clinton +8

Overall: Clinton +3
Electoral: Clinton +91
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #118 on: February 04, 2017, 09:20:47 am »
« Edited: February 04, 2017, 09:35:28 am by Dave Leip »

Prediction scores have (finally) been posted.  Many apologies for taking so long to do this. We had not 51-state correct predictions and only one 50-state correct prediction -> from RobLewis and that was made on Oct 5.  Congratulations.

A call-out to user norlion whom predicted 49 correct states - in December of 2015.

Top overall score is Dav64 with 48 correct states and 39 correct percentages.

Enjoy,
Dave
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