Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 26, 2019, 03:50:04 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Predict the 2019 elections
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: Predict the 2019 elections  (Read 6659 times)
UWS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,671


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 29, 2018, 09:06:00 am »

Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
Logged
CO more D than VA
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,795
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2018, 10:42:34 am »



KY could really go either way due to Bevin's unpopularity but the partisanship of the state makes me think he'll narrowly hold on. Edwards should be fine in LA, unless Kennedy runs. MS is a pure tossup, but the weakness of the potential GOP nominees and the close Special election results make me think its a Democratic pickup.
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,850
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2018, 12:16:14 pm »

Usual words of caution about how early it is apply.

KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-15%.
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-6%
MS: Toss-Up, the Republican wins by 2-5%
Logged
New York Dude
123NY
Full Member
***
Posts: 158


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2018, 05:33:37 pm »

Kentucky: Bevin +9 (political trends since 2015 counterbalancing his unpopularity and the more Democratic environment)
Louisiana: R +8 if Kennedy runs, a near-perfect tie if the Republican nominee is anyone else.
Mississippi: R+2
Logged
Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,154
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2018, 05:09:29 pm »

Beasher wins 51-49 in KY
JBE wins 51-49 avoid runoff in LA

Reeves wins 55-45 in MS



2019-2020
Logged
Jon Tester
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 55


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2018, 05:55:57 pm »

Ky: Bevin by 13

Ms: Hood by 1

La: Edwards by 5
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,750
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2018, 09:13:12 am »

KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +10-15 (first round)
MS: Hood +1-3
Logged
Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,154
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2018, 03:20:18 pm »

MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,029
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2018, 09:44:53 am »

MS is the most GOP nation at large, and R's should be able to win that, the very least

Surely no. Wyoming is much more Republican, for example. And not only Wyoming. Now, probably, even West Virginia is more Republican.
Logged
Monarch
trippytropicana
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 70
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -7.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2018, 06:19:22 pm »

Dems win Louisiana comfortably, lose Kentucky narrowly, and lose Mississippi by about 5 to 10.
Logged
brucejoel99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2018, 08:11:36 am »

KY: Bevin +2-4
LA: Bel Edwards +4-6
MS: Hood +1-3
Logged
Governor Peanut
Peanut
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,094
Costa Rica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2018, 11:55:38 am »

KY: Strong Likely R, not Safe because nothing's Safe this far out, but close to it.

LA: Lean D, could move to Likely.

MS: Tossup, I'd say Hood pulls it out.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,029
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2018, 04:26:15 am »

Right now: (i stress these words as strongly as possible)

KY: Likely R
LA: Lean D
MS: Tilt R
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,132
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2018, 04:33:38 am »

Zell am See mayor & city council (March 2019): Strong ÷VP

EU election (May 2019): Strong ÷VP

Vorarlberg state election (September 2019): Strong ÷VP
Logged
Pericles
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,253
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 26, 2018, 03:13:22 am »

LA-Bel Edwards +2
MS-Reeves +4
KY-Bevin +8

Logged
538Electoral
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 412


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2018, 05:23:10 am »

Kentucky and Mississippi both Lean R, Louisiana I think is Lean D at the moment.
Logged
pops
katman46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 709


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 26, 2018, 06:53:09 pm »

MS R+8
KY R+7
LA R+3

But this could change easily.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,012
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2018, 03:25:42 pm »

Img
Logged
WI Is Tilt D
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,440
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2018, 03:37:40 pm »

Kentucky Bevin 50% Beshear 47%
Louisiana Abraham 51% Edwards 48%
Mississippi Reeves 52% Hood 46%
Logged
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,539
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2018, 06:19:08 pm »

Img


Looks like youíre predicting a Hood win. And your KY map is probably more realistic than a lot of the other delusions about this race that people have on here, but I would still give the Dem Franklin County.
Democrats picked up 8 seats in the KY state senate where Trump won 80%+. Clearly some backlash against levin. I'd at least flip Rowan and maybe Eliott
Logged
Lechasseur
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,469
France


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2018, 10:21:58 pm »



This
Logged
NewYorkExpress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 28, 2018, 12:21:20 am »

Kentucky: Matt Bevin (R) 48%, Andy Beshear 47.9%

Mississippi: Tate Reeves (R) 50.9%, Jim Hood (D) 48.4%

Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) 52% (avoids runoff), Ralph Abraham (R) 37%, Eddie Rispone (R) 10%
Logged
Flyersfan232
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 397


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2018, 10:20:42 pm »

Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep
Logged
brucejoel99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2018, 02:24:09 pm »

Even though most of the attention is now focused on the 2020 presidential election, there will first be such kind of test for both parties with the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

What are your predictons for the 2019 gubernatorial elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_States_gubernatorial_elections
republican sweep

Nah, Edwards is fine in LA, esp. considering Kennedy chose not to run
Logged
YourLocalKiwiGay
Rookie
*
Posts: 32
New Zealand


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: February 04, 2019, 01:52:52 am »

I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC