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  Predict the 2019 elections
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Author Topic: Predict the 2019 elections  (Read 5683 times)
YourLocalKiwiGay
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« Reply #25 on: February 04, 2019, 01:52:52 am »

I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #26 on: February 04, 2019, 11:49:31 am »

I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?

I agree except I feel Trump will doom Edwards as well.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2019, 06:01:25 pm »

Bold prediction: Dems sweep, Beshear, Hood & JBE will wim
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DaWN
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« Reply #28 on: February 06, 2019, 01:13:41 pm »

KY: Likely R, Bevin by 10
LA: Lean D, Edwards by 5
MS: Tossup, Reeves by 2
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MAGugh
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« Reply #29 on: February 07, 2019, 10:15:37 pm »

Kentucky - Flips blue. Probably Beshear.

Louisiana - Stays blue. Bel Edwards wins by a slim 3-5 percent, but I could see this seat getting flipped red.

Mississippi - Tate Reeves wins the GOP primary, with an insurgent Lumumba upsetting Hood in the Democratic primary; and pulling off the upset against Reeves as well - flipping Mississipi by a slim margin and making history.

Chicago - Amara Enyia

Tampa Bay - David Straz

Phoenix - Kate Gallego
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #30 on: February 12, 2019, 10:04:24 am »

As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2019, 10:12:44 am »

As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.

The same. But only "as of right now"....
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2019, 10:05:25 am »

I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #33 on: February 22, 2019, 10:49:49 am »

I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.

Prediction of faithful Republican conservative)))))))
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Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative
S019
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« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2019, 02:37:04 pm »

Louisiana:

Rep. Ralph Abrahan: 50.9%
Gov. John Bel Edwards: 46.5%


Kentucky:
Gov. Matt Bevin: 53%
Attorney General Andy Beshear: 46%

Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2019, 06:44:46 pm »

Governorships:

MS (Open): Toss-Up. I'd like to see Hood pull this off considering the MS Dems last won the MS Governor's Mansion in 1999 when then-LG Ross Musgrove (D) won the Governorship, only to lose reelection in 2003.

KY: Bevin wins reelection easily over Baby Beshear (56% to 41%).

LA: JBE wins without a Runoff: 57% of the statewide vote. Big question is whether the LA Dems make gains on down-ballot contests considering the other down-ballot statewide offices won't be contested.

Mayoral Contests:

Houston, TX: 50-to-50% possibility embattled incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) misses the Runoff; Bill King (R) & Tony Buzbee (D ? or R ?) stand possible shot at being Houston's 63rd Mayor.

There's still backlash against Turner over his disastrous handling over Proposition B & the HFD Firefighters Union, etc., who cannot stand him.

San Francisco ,CA: Breed wins 1st full 4-year term in November & she's eligible for a 2nd full 4-year term in 2023, which could give her close to 9 1/2 years.

Denver, CO: Incumbent Mayor Michael Hancock (D) wins 3rd consecutive term despite some controversies.

San Antonio, TX: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Fort Worth, TX: Price (R) wins 5th term.

Dallas, TX (Open): This might go to a Runoff.

Arlington, TX: Williams (R) wins reelection.

Charlotte, NC: Interesting to see if Lyles seeks another term in office.

Chicago, IL (Open): Lightfoot wins easily in the Runoff barring something crazy between now & April 2nd.



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olawakandi
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« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2019, 05:57:31 pm »
« Edited: May 15, 2019, 07:50:48 pm by olowakandi »



S-DEL Carney inc
T-IN Holcomb inc
P-KY Beshear
P-LA JBE

T-MS Reeves
T-MO Parson inc
T-MT Fox

cc-NH Sununu inc
P-NC Cooper inc
T-ND Burgam inc
T-UT open
cc-VT Phil Scott inc

S-WA open
T-WVA Justice
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #37 on: May 19, 2019, 07:08:03 pm »

I don't have much faith in the Democrats's ability to win in deep red states. Still, Hood is a strong candidate. I think Bel Edwards will narrowly pull out the win, while Hood will lose by around 3-5 points. Bevin will probably get reelected by around 8-11 points.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #38 on: May 20, 2019, 02:59:23 pm »

If Dems win either MS or KY and keep LA, the governor make-up will remain the same, due to fact, Dems will ultimately lose MT.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #39 on: May 20, 2019, 04:13:04 pm »

All three go Republican. Let's be honest here.

We heard in 2014 that McConnell was vulnerable, and Kentucky still voted for him in a landslide.
Southern Whites will vote Republican again, so Louisiana and Mississippi will go red. Bel Edwards isn't even a strong candidate, he only won because Vitter had a weird fetish. And Mississippi, they voted for a woman who joked about lynching.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #40 on: May 21, 2019, 04:35:37 pm »

Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #41 on: May 21, 2019, 04:56:19 pm »

Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.


Why do you like to mock the term polarization so much(Which when we talk about mostly talk about it for Presidential, Senate and House ones more than State ones)
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #42 on: May 21, 2019, 08:35:48 pm »

MS: GOP Hold.

KY: GOP Hold.

LA: DEM Hold with JBE winning by double digits with 57% & all of the doubters need to STFU.

Dallas, TX Mayor: Johnson wins the Runoff.

San Antonio, TX Mayor: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Houston, TX Mayor: King (R) or Buzbee (D/R) defeat Turner.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to full 4-year term.

VA State Senate: DEM Pick-Up barring crazy Northam-like scandals.

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