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June 17, 2019, 12:00:14 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Predict the 2019 elections
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Author Topic: Predict the 2019 elections  (Read 6477 times)
MODOK
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #25 on: February 04, 2019, 11:49:31 am »

I am ready to be disappointed already. But Brashear and Hood may put up a fight until Trump makes his trip down south, flails his arms and says some names and puts away any chance the democrat had of winning because heck! Why think for yourself?

I agree except I feel Trump will doom Edwards as well.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2019, 06:01:25 pm »

Bold prediction: Dems sweep, Beshear, Hood & JBE will wim
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DaWN
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« Reply #27 on: February 06, 2019, 01:13:41 pm »

KY: Likely R, Bevin by 10
LA: Lean D, Edwards by 5
MS: Tossup, Reeves by 2
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MAGugh
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« Reply #28 on: February 07, 2019, 10:15:37 pm »

Kentucky - Flips blue. Probably Beshear.

Louisiana - Stays blue. Bel Edwards wins by a slim 3-5 percent, but I could see this seat getting flipped red.

Mississippi - Tate Reeves wins the GOP primary, with an insurgent Lumumba upsetting Hood in the Democratic primary; and pulling off the upset against Reeves as well - flipping Mississipi by a slim margin and making history.

Chicago - Amara Enyia

Tampa Bay - David Straz

Phoenix - Kate Gallego
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #29 on: February 12, 2019, 10:04:24 am »

As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2019, 10:12:44 am »

As of right now I'd say that Mississippi and Kentucky vote Republican, while Louisiana votes Democratic.

The same. But only "as of right now"....
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2019, 10:05:25 am »

I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2019, 10:49:49 am »

I think that JBE will lose by mid-single digits. I think that Beshear and Hood will both appear to be running close with Bevin and Reeves, respectively, but eventually they'll go into free-fall and lose by double digits.

Prediction of faithful Republican conservative)))))))
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Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2019, 02:37:04 pm »

Louisiana:

Rep. Ralph Abrahan: 50.9%
Gov. John Bel Edwards: 46.5%


Kentucky:
Gov. Matt Bevin: 53%
Attorney General Andy Beshear: 46%

Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2019, 06:44:46 pm »

Governorships:

MS (Open): Toss-Up. I'd like to see Hood pull this off considering the MS Dems last won the MS Governor's Mansion in 1999 when then-LG Ross Musgrove (D) won the Governorship, only to lose reelection in 2003.

KY: Bevin wins reelection easily over Baby Beshear (56% to 41%).

LA: JBE wins without a Runoff: 57% of the statewide vote. Big question is whether the LA Dems make gains on down-ballot contests considering the other down-ballot statewide offices won't be contested.

Mayoral Contests:

Houston, TX: 50-to-50% possibility embattled incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) misses the Runoff; Bill King (R) & Tony Buzbee (D ? or R ?) stand possible shot at being Houston's 63rd Mayor.

There's still backlash against Turner over his disastrous handling over Proposition B & the HFD Firefighters Union, etc., who cannot stand him.

San Francisco ,CA: Breed wins 1st full 4-year term in November & she's eligible for a 2nd full 4-year term in 2023, which could give her close to 9 1/2 years.

Denver, CO: Incumbent Mayor Michael Hancock (D) wins 3rd consecutive term despite some controversies.

San Antonio, TX: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Fort Worth, TX: Price (R) wins 5th term.

Dallas, TX (Open): This might go to a Runoff.

Arlington, TX: Williams (R) wins reelection.

Charlotte, NC: Interesting to see if Lyles seeks another term in office.

Chicago, IL (Open): Lightfoot wins easily in the Runoff barring something crazy between now & April 2nd.



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Olawakandi
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« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2019, 05:57:31 pm »
« Edited: May 15, 2019, 07:50:48 pm by olowakandi »



S-DEL Carney inc
T-IN Holcomb inc
P-KY Beshear
P-LA JBE

T-MS Reeves
T-MO Parson inc
T-MT Fox

cc-NH Sununu inc
P-NC Cooper inc
T-ND Burgam inc
T-UT open
cc-VT Phil Scott inc

S-WA open
T-WVA Justice
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #36 on: May 19, 2019, 07:08:03 pm »

I don't have much faith in the Democrats's ability to win in deep red states. Still, Hood is a strong candidate. I think Bel Edwards will narrowly pull out the win, while Hood will lose by around 3-5 points. Bevin will probably get reelected by around 8-11 points.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #37 on: May 20, 2019, 02:59:23 pm »

If Dems win either MS or KY and keep LA, the governor make-up will remain the same, due to fact, Dems will ultimately lose MT.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #38 on: May 20, 2019, 04:13:04 pm »

All three go Republican. Let's be honest here.

We heard in 2014 that McConnell was vulnerable, and Kentucky still voted for him in a landslide.
Southern Whites will vote Republican again, so Louisiana and Mississippi will go red. Bel Edwards isn't even a strong candidate, he only won because Vitter had a weird fetish. And Mississippi, they voted for a woman who joked about lynching.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #39 on: May 21, 2019, 04:35:37 pm »

Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #40 on: May 21, 2019, 04:56:19 pm »

Republicans sweep all three races in a landslide as polarization (which has never been higher before in the history of this country) and the partisan lean of these deep red states prevail. Also, Trump rallies, Trump endorsements, Trump approval, and 2018 was a D+9 year.

KY: Bevin 62.52%, Democratic nominee 32.68% (SAFE R)
LA: Abraham 58.09%, JBE 38.45% (SAFE R)
MS: Reeves 57.86%, Hood 40.06% (SAFE R)

Are JBE and Hood Strong Candidates? Yes, but they have a (D) next to their name, and thatís all that matters.


Why do you like to mock the term polarization so much(Which when we talk about mostly talk about it for Presidential, Senate and House ones more than State ones)
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #41 on: May 21, 2019, 08:35:48 pm »

MS: GOP Hold.

KY: GOP Hold.

LA: DEM Hold with JBE winning by double digits with 57% & all of the doubters need to STFU.

Dallas, TX Mayor: Johnson wins the Runoff.

San Antonio, TX Mayor: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Houston, TX Mayor: King (R) or Buzbee (D/R) defeat Turner.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to full 4-year term.

VA State Senate: DEM Pick-Up barring crazy Northam-like scandals.

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Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #42 on: May 25, 2019, 04:17:18 pm »

Mississippi

Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves: 56%
Attorney General Jim Hood: 42%



This is beyond absurd.

Anyway, I'm extremely pessimistic about the south, but in the end I think at least one of Hood or JBE will *get more votes than* their Republican opponents. In the event that it's Hood, the courts will probably turn around and steal his win from him. I'd love to be proven wrong and all three of Hood, JBE and Beshear win.

Democrats easily pick up the Virginia legislature though.

That post so also from February

VA legislature flips

All three governor seats are R

LA by about 2-3 points
MS by 6-8
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Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #43 on: May 25, 2019, 04:19:58 pm »

Read the new post
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Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« Reply #44 on: May 27, 2019, 08:00:58 am »
« Edited: June 12, 2019, 12:03:01 pm by POL_Itician »

KY: Bevin wins by 2
LA: Edwards wins by 9
MS: Reeves wins by 4

VA Senate: Democrats pickup 7 (OPEN), 10 (Sturtevant), 12 (Dunnavant), 13 (OPEN)
VA House: Democrats pickup 28 (OPEN), 40 (Hugo), 76 (Jones), 91 (OPEN), 94 (Yancey)
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #45 on: May 27, 2019, 01:15:38 pm »

Beshear wins by 2 50/48
JBE avoids run-off wins 57/43
Reeves wins should Hood get under 50%
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #46 on: May 29, 2019, 10:53:21 am »

Sounds like the VA Dems will regain both chambers of the VA General Assembly for the first time since the early 1990s ?
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swamiG
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« Reply #47 on: May 29, 2019, 11:21:17 pm »

VA Dems get back both houses of the General Assembly, both House and Senate were Likely D even before the Court imposed new maps. Safe D

Louisiana might move to Likely D since Edwards remains personally popular. He may be able to avoid a run-off

Mississippi is Lean R because of course they've got an electoral college down there. I find it hard to see how Hood manages a majority, especially looking at the handful of polling that's been released so far

Kentucky is a pure toss-up imo. Bevin is clearly damaged and Beshear should do a lot better than Conway.

Now let's see just hope Trump doesn't make these races Titanium R by virtue of showing up and tossing a Bounty paper towel roll or 2 into the crowds

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #48 on: June 04, 2019, 03:37:42 pm »

VA Dems get back both houses of the General Assembly, both House and Senate were Likely D even before the Court imposed new maps. Safe D

Louisiana might move to Likely D since Edwards remains personally popular. He may be able to avoid a run-off

Mississippi is Lean R because of course they've got an electoral college down there. I find it hard to see how Hood manages a majority, especially looking at the handful of polling that's been released so far

Kentucky is a pure toss-up imo. Bevin is clearly damaged and Beshear should do a lot better than Conway.

Now let's see just hope Trump doesn't make these races Titanium R by virtue of showing up and tossing a Bounty paper towel roll or 2 into the crowds



MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.
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swamiG
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« Reply #49 on: June 05, 2019, 01:37:38 am »

MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.

I find it hard to believe there hasnít been a constitutional challenge to this system. Might be a standing issue since I donít think thereís been a Gov candidate whoís lost just because of it, Musgrove won the popular vote and the backing of the then Democratic legislature the last time it was invoked.
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