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November 17, 2019, 08:35:30 am
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Politician
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« Reply #50 on: June 05, 2019, 06:44:03 am »

MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.

I find it hard to believe there hasnít been a constitutional challenge to this system. Might be a standing issue since I donít think thereís been a Gov candidate whoís lost just because of it, Musgrove won the popular vote and the backing of the then Democratic legislature the last time it was invoked.
There's already been a lawsuit filed against it.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #51 on: June 05, 2019, 03:41:26 pm »

How did the lawsuit turn out ?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #52 on: June 07, 2019, 12:51:52 am »

MS is a red state, it won't be changed
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #53 on: June 07, 2019, 12:45:39 pm »

MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.

I find it hard to believe there hasnít been a constitutional challenge to this system. Might be a standing issue since I donít think thereís been a Gov candidate whoís lost just because of it, Musgrove won the popular vote and the backing of the then Democratic legislature the last time it was invoked.
There's already been a lawsuit filed against it.

So John Roberts has the final say?
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #54 on: June 07, 2019, 02:25:03 pm »

Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.

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Politician
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« Reply #55 on: June 07, 2019, 05:10:36 pm »

Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.


He already did
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #56 on: June 07, 2019, 05:13:00 pm »

Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.


He already did

Oops!

Dallas & San Antonio have Mayoral Runoffs.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #57 on: June 07, 2019, 05:33:33 pm »

First round of predictions:

Lousiana:

Abraham unseats Edwards in a runoff 52-48

Mississippi:

Reeves beats Hood back 54-45

Kentucky:

Bevin beats Beshear back 52-46
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #58 on: June 10, 2019, 09:19:03 pm »

The 2019 Gubernatorial Prediction script is now live at: Link
Enjoy,
Dave
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
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« Reply #59 on: June 10, 2019, 10:27:19 pm »

Sweet!
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #60 on: June 11, 2019, 03:01:42 pm »

First round of predictions:

Lousiana:

Abraham unseats Edwards in a runoff 52-48

Mississippi:

Reeves beats Hood back 54-45

Kentucky:

Bevin beats Beshear back 52-46

OMG. You're such a pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection by double digits, 57% to 42%.

MS: Might go to the MS State Legislature if nobody gets the necessary 50%.

KY: Who knows. Crazy things have happened.

Houston, TX Mayor: December Runoff & with Boykins jumping in, he's going to cut into Turner's coalition of African Americans, Latinos, Asian/Pacific Islanders, etc., guaranteeing Buzbee or King advance to the Runoff.

I should note that Buzbee is running TV Advertising all over the place & considering he served on the Texas A&M University System Board of Regents & in the United States Marine Corps.

King needs to up his game.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to a full 4-year term, hopefully by double digits & with 56+%.

VA State Senate & VA House of Delegates flip Blue.
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Peter Moon
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« Reply #61 on: October 22, 2019, 12:14:51 pm »

Mississippi
I believe Mississippi is basically Ohio right now. There is a chance a Democrat could win it, but that chance is very small. There need to be several factors that ensure a Democratic upset there:
1. The Republicans/Republican supporters/voters need to either not vote for their candidate or not vote at all. This could result in an upset.
2. Democratic support: The Democratic candidate needs to appeal to more people than his party is right now. Mississippi isnít just filled with ďracist southernersĒ. The Democrat needs to galvanize more support, or he needs to draw support from his Republican opponent.
3. Lower turnout: This goes into 1, but itís a fact. Turnout can decide an election no matter what other factors are at play. LA almost could have gone red if all Republicans who voted went for a single candidate instead of splitting the vote in half. If Democrats want to win a state like Mississippi, they need to get out their base to vote.

Overall, I think this state has very little chance of flipping.

Louisiana
Louisiana almost went Red this last election. Edwards only avoided being thrown out because the Republicans split their vote. If every Republican were to vote for Eddie on their next election night and didnít care about political differences, the state has a large if not certain chance of going red. Edwards could get his support up though, and that is seemingly unlikely to happen. He got nearly 9 or so less points this election around, which is a very large drop in voter support. If one wants to argue how this election favored Republicans, then letís discuss that:
1. Date/Time: The election was held on a weekend, the day most if not all working people have off. If this election were held on a weekday, the argument of ďvoter suppressionĒ would hold more ground.
2. Candidate choice: Democrats seemed to unify behind Edwards more than any other candidate, so the argument that other Dems and third party voters are to blame for a loss is very loose, since the total combined vote of non-Edwards candidates (excluding the Republicans) is about 1.6-1.7, which was not enough for an Edwards victory after adding that.
3. Next Date/Time: From what Iíve heard, the next election will be held in November. If this is true, and it is held on Election Day, then there is little probabilities that Edwards will win a high amount of support. The whole reason Democrats complain about elections is that they supposedly donít help young people with the laws in place and other attributes. So, if their argument is to be believed, then yes, a Republican victory is most certainly probable. Still a little unlikely, but definitely a possibility.

Kentucky

While Bevin seems quite unpopular, I think that the state itself isnít trending blue. Yes, an unpopular governor can affect support, but tell that to Oregon and Wisconsin. Both Governors werenít the most popular, but that didnít mean a complete upset. Walker lost in WI mainly because of a lack of turnout by Republicans or even flips by those Republican voters. Oregon still elected another Democrat despite the governor having lower support. Support in the KY race may be a good prediction tool, but it is not going to determine the outcome.
Another myth some may come up with is that ďbecause liberal states elect Republicans, conservative states can elect DemocratsĒ. There is a problem with this argument. The idea that liberal states elect Republicans is a true statement one can make, but one needs to know what kind of candidates these are. Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, and Bill Weld were all governors of the extremely liberal Massachusetts. All three are more liberal Republicans: I canít say on Baker, but both Romney and Weld do not support Trump and have espoused more liberal ideas in the past, a good representation of this is ďRomney CareĒ, which was either modeled after Obama care, or got based off of by Obama care (Obama modeled his plan). A better example of how this statement could be confused as working either way is George Pataki of New York and the new Governor of Kansas (I donít know their name). Both ran in opposite ďparty strongholdĒ states. New York hasnít gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election. Same goes for Kansas. The state hasnít gone Democrat since 1964, and has been reliably Republican ever since. However, both elected opposite-party Governors. Why? Well, two possible ideas could be made.
1. Weak opponents: In 2018, the Democrat running for governor got 48 to 42 percent of the vote, achieving a 6 point victory. Kobach lost by over 6 points, which were ironically made up by a strong 3rd party. In 1998, Pataki won election to New York Governor with over 50% of the vote. Many factors could explain his win, but a contested race isnít one of them. Adding all non-Pataki votes still ended in a decisive victory, unlike the Kansas race in 2018. A stronger GOP could be to blame for a Democratic loss, but in New York? Iím not so sure thatís the real story.
Thatís why I think Bevin will probably win re-election, however narrow that margin is.
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Peter Moon
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« Reply #62 on: October 22, 2019, 12:16:13 pm »

Mississippi
I believe Mississippi is basically Ohio right now. There is a chance a Democrat could win it, but that chance is very small. There need to be several factors that ensure a Democratic upset there:
1. The Republicans/Republican supporters/voters need to either not vote for their candidate or not vote at all. This could result in an upset.
2. Democratic support: The Democratic candidate needs to appeal to more people than his party is right now. Mississippi isnít just filled with ďracist southernersĒ. The Democrat needs to galvanize more support, or he needs to draw support from his Republican opponent.
3. Lower turnout: This goes into 1, but itís a fact. Turnout can decide an election no matter what other factors are at play. LA almost could have gone red if all Republicans who voted went for a single candidate instead of splitting the vote in half. If Democrats want to win a state like Mississippi, they need to get out their base to vote.

Overall, I think this state has very little chance of flipping.

Louisiana
Louisiana almost went Red this last election. Edwards only avoided being thrown out because the Republicans split their vote. If every Republican were to vote for Eddie on their next election night and didnít care about political differences, the state has a large if not certain chance of going red. Edwards could get his support up though, and that is seemingly unlikely to happen. He got nearly 9 or so less points this election around, which is a very large drop in voter support. If one wants to argue how this election favored Republicans, then letís discuss that:
1. Date/Time: The election was held on a weekend, the day most if not all working people have off. If this election were held on a weekday, the argument of ďvoter suppressionĒ would hold more ground.
2. Candidate choice: Democrats seemed to unify behind Edwards more than any other candidate, so the argument that other Dems and third party voters are to blame for a loss is very loose, since the total combined vote of non-Edwards candidates (excluding the Republicans) is about 1.6-1.7, which was not enough for an Edwards victory after adding that.
3. Next Date/Time: From what Iíve heard, the next election will be held in November. If this is true, and it is held on Election Day, then there is little probabilities that Edwards will win a high amount of support. The whole reason Democrats complain about elections is that they supposedly donít help young people with the laws in place and other attributes. So, if their argument is to be believed, then yes, a Republican victory is most certainly probable. Still a little unlikely, but definitely a possibility.

Kentucky

While Bevin seems quite unpopular, I think that the state itself isnít trending blue. Yes, an unpopular governor can affect support, but tell that to Oregon and Wisconsin. Both Governors werenít the most popular, but that didnít mean a complete upset. Walker lost in WI mainly because of a lack of turnout by Republicans or even flips by those Republican voters. Oregon still elected another Democrat despite the governor having lower support. Support in the KY race may be a good prediction tool, but it is not going to determine the outcome.
Another myth some may come up with is that ďbecause liberal states elect Republicans, conservative states can elect DemocratsĒ. There is a problem with this argument. The idea that liberal states elect Republicans is a true statement one can make, but one needs to know what kind of candidates these are. Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, and Bill Weld were all governors of the extremely liberal Massachusetts. All three are more liberal Republicans: I canít say on Baker, but both Romney and Weld do not support Trump and have espoused more liberal ideas in the past, a good representation of this is ďRomney CareĒ, which was either modeled after Obama care, or got based off of by Obama care (Obama modeled his plan). A better example of how this statement could be confused as working either way is George Pataki of New York and the new Governor of Kansas (I donít know their name). Both ran in opposite ďparty strongholdĒ states. New York hasnít gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election. Same goes for Kansas. The state hasnít gone Democrat since 1964, and has been reliably Republican ever since. However, both elected opposite-party Governors. Why? Well, two possible ideas could be made.
1. Weak opponents: In 2018, the Democrat running for governor got 48 to 42 percent of the vote, achieving a 6 point victory. Kobach lost by over 6 points, which were ironically made up by a strong 3rd party. In 1998, Pataki won election to New York Governor with over 50% of the vote. Many factors could explain his win, but a contested race isnít one of them. Adding all non-Pataki votes still ended in a decisive victory, unlike the Kansas race in 2018. A stronger GOP could be to blame for a Democratic loss, but in New York? Iím not so sure thatís the real story.
Thatís why I think Bevin will probably win re-election, however narrow that margin is.
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Thegreatwar18
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« Reply #63 on: November 05, 2019, 10:34:13 pm »

So Matt Bevin lost by 0.4, even after the trump rally. #SAD
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #64 on: November 07, 2019, 08:39:29 am »

Pence would only be a good public servant, as a Prez, Pence being Veep, doesnt serve him and makes his presence unknowm.
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