Betomania Megathread: "Mr. Trumpachev, Tear Down This Wall!"

[Zaybay]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

Beto also had trouble with Hispanics in the general, all of the D shift came from the anglos in and near the cities, not to mention polling so far shows him underpreforming with this group. If Beto can get Hispanics in his corner, good for him, that gives him a base, but so far, that isnt apparent at all.
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1072101831315197952

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

It is not unusual for the "real" Dem candidates in statewide races in TX to have problems in South TX in the primary. The reason for this is primarily name ID, low info voters, and that a certain # of people will automatically vote for whoever has a Spanish surname. The thing you have to realize is there are a lot of people there who vote in Dem primaries who are only really voting because the Dem primary is effectively the General Election in local races. Turnout in Dem primaries in South TX has often been higher than in the General Election in November, which means you are getting more low info voters out and, since primaries are early before statewide candidates can really be expected to have been able to do much campaigning in a state as huge as TX, that leads to the candidates that should win often losing or underperforming in South TX.

[Sbane]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

Beto also had trouble with Hispanics in the general, all of the D shift came from the anglos in and near the cities, not to mention polling so far shows him underpreforming with this group. If Beto can get Hispanics in his corner, good for him, that gives him a base, but so far, that isnt apparent at all.

That is a good sign for 2020. There is still room to grow in Texas. This was a midterm election and of course Hispanic turnout was lower compared to older, more educated and wealthy areas around the big cities of Texas.

[Zaybay]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

Beto also had trouble with Hispanics in the general, all of the D shift came from the anglos in and near the cities, not to mention polling so far shows him underpreforming with this group. If Beto can get Hispanics in his corner, good for him, that gives him a base, but so far, that isnt apparent at all.

That is a good sign for 2020. There is still room to grow in Texas. This was a midterm election and of course Hispanic turnout was lower compared to older, more educated and wealthy areas around the big cities of Texas.

True, but Im talking about the 2020 primary, not the general.

[RogueBeaver]

He's meeting with Sharpton soon.

[Sbane]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

Beto also had trouble with Hispanics in the general, all of the D shift came from the anglos in and near the cities, not to mention polling so far shows him underpreforming with this group. If Beto can get Hispanics in his corner, good for him, that gives him a base, but so far, that isnt apparent at all.

That is a good sign for 2020. There is still room to grow in Texas. This was a midterm election and of course Hispanic turnout was lower compared to older, more educated and wealthy areas around the big cities of Texas.

True, but Im talking about the 2020 primary, not the general.

I think Beto does very well among White liberals all across the country and fairly well among Hispanics as well. That is a huge chunk of the party.

[Oryxslayer]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

Beto also had trouble with Hispanics in the general, all of the D shift came from the anglos in and near the cities, not to mention polling so far shows him underpreforming with this group. If Beto can get Hispanics in his corner, good for him, that gives him a base, but so far, that isnt apparent at all.

That is a good sign for 2020. There is still room to grow in Texas. This was a midterm election and of course Hispanic turnout was lower compared to older, more educated and wealthy areas around the big cities of Texas.

True, but Im talking about the 2020 primary, not the general.

The 2018 hispanic primary electorate in Texas, and to a lesser extent other border states, votes for the hispanic last name.

Also I think the "path" primary hurdle matters less this year then ever before. Warren/Sanders will win NH, and a AA candidate will win SC. This makes IA and 'strong showings' elsewhere key to every campaign, especially with the clown car. Whoever can win IA probably ends up with a path pre-made for them as candidates drop out, so for Beto this means doing well with the IA progressive activists.

[RogueBeaver]

Gillum talked to him and they agree on the need for young progressives to lead the Donkey Party.

[Grassroots]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

[CookieDamage]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

Oh please, stop this silliness. He is a typical liberal Democrat. Enough with this mentality that anyone to the right of Sanders is a quasi-fascist.

[Don Vito Corleone]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

Oh please, stop this silliness. He is a typical liberal Democrat. Enough with this mentality that anyone to the right of Sanders is a quasi-fascist.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The Battle Over Beto for President Feels Like 2016 All Over Again
An online spat reveals how divisive the upcoming Democratic primaries will be.

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[Zaybay]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

Oh please, stop this silliness. He is a typical liberal Democrat. Enough with this mentality that anyone to the right of Sanders is a quasi-fascist.

Eh, sort of. According to his voting record, he is more Conservative than 75% of his fellow Democrats, so, he would go in the moderate category, but he would be a Conservative-Moderate(if that makes any sense).

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

Oh please, stop this silliness. He is a typical liberal Democrat. Enough with this mentality that anyone to the right of Sanders is a quasi-fascist.

Eh, sort of. According to his voting record, he is more Conservative than 75% of his fellow Democrats, so, he would go in the moderate category, but he would be a Conservative-Moderate(if that makes any sense).

There are no conservative Democrats anymore. Are you seriously comparing O'Rourke to Gene Taylor, Mike Ross or Dan Boren? He is not even a moderate like Jim Cooper or Henry Cuellar.

Not to mention that it reeks of intellectual dishonesty when you cream your pants for Richard Ojeda but Beto is too right-wing for you.

[Zaybay]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

Oh please, stop this silliness. He is a typical liberal Democrat. Enough with this mentality that anyone to the right of Sanders is a quasi-fascist.

Eh, sort of. According to his voting record, he is more Conservative than 75% of his fellow Democrats, so, he would go in the moderate category, but he would be a Conservative-Moderate(if that makes any sense).

There are no conservative Democrats anymore. Are you seriously comparing O'Rourke to Gene Taylor, Mike Ross or Dan Boren? He is not even a moderate like Jim Cooper or Henry Cuellar.

Not to mention that it reeks of intellectual dishonesty when you cream your pants for Richard Ojeda but Beto is too right-wing for you.

This isnt an opinion. This is literally his voting record being compared to other Democrats. He is a moderate, as I said beforehand, but he clearly lies on the Conservative side of the Moderates, just as someone like Ted Leiu lies on the Conservative side of the Progressives. I mean, you can argue how progressive/moderate he is, but you cannot argue the numbers.

And why would it be weird for me to like Ojeda on terms of policy. He was rather left in 2018, especially for where he was running, and now he is the first to come out in support of the Green Deal.

Anyway, that doesnt matter. I never said I didnt like Beto, I just clarified that he isnt just

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.
And that his voting record doesnt support that conclusion.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And why would it be weird for me to like Ojeda on terms of policy. He was rather left in 2018, especially for where he was running, and now he is the first to come out in support of the Green Deal.

Ojeda is pro-coal, pro-gun, wants the US to escalate the conflict in Middle-East and doesn't sound very supportive of Obamacare. He is not a leftie by any stretch of the imagination, and if he was he would lose by as much as Clinton did in his district.

Did I mention that he is a Trump voter too?   

[Zaybay]

And why would it be weird for me to like Ojeda on terms of policy. He was rather left in 2018, especially for where he was running, and now he is the first to come out in support of the Green Deal.

Ojeda is pro-coal, pro-gun, wants the US to escalate the conflict in Middle-East and doesn't sound very supportive of Obamacare. He is not a leftie by any stretch of the imagination, and if he was he would lose by as much as Clinton did in his district.

Did I mention that he is a Trump voter too?   

What does this have to do with Beto's voting record?

[CookieDamage]

LOL @ people thinking Beto is a progressive. He's more towards the center than the party estab.

Your concern trolling has been duly noted.

He's concern trolling but he isn't wholly wrong. People saying Beto is a progressive are just silly. He's a neoliberal moderate who gives vague progressive platitudes.

Oh please, stop this silliness. He is a typical liberal Democrat. Enough with this mentality that anyone to the right of Sanders is a quasi-fascist.

Eh, sort of. According to his voting record, he is more Conservative than 75% of his fellow Democrats, so, he would go in the moderate category, but he would be a Conservative-Moderate(if that makes any sense).

There are no conservative Democrats anymore. Are you seriously comparing O'Rourke to Gene Taylor, Mike Ross or Dan Boren? He is not even a moderate like Jim Cooper or Henry Cuellar.

Not to mention that it reeks of intellectual dishonesty when you cream your pants for Richard Ojeda but Beto is too right-wing for you.

This isnt an opinion. This is literally his voting record being compared to other Democrats. He is a moderate, as I said beforehand, but he clearly lies on the Conservative side of the Moderates, just as someone like Ted Leiu lies on the Conservative side of the Progressives. I mean, you can argue how progressive/moderate he is, but you cannot argue the numbers.

And why would it be weird for me to like Ojeda on terms of policy. He was rather left in 2018, especially for where he was running, and now he is the first to come out in support of the Green Deal.

Anyway, that doesnt matter. I never said I didnt like Beto, I just clarified that he isnt just

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.
And that his voting record doesnt support that conclusion.

[lfromnj]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/13/politics/2020-rankings-presidential/index.html


Beto already at number 2 in cnn and they admit if he wasn't coy he would be 1.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is a pretty good article, worth reading in full. There is much more that I would want to quote, but can't because of copyright:

Beto is the new Bernie

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Note that the author, David Faris, is the guy who wrote the book "It's Time to Fight Dirty: How Democrats Can Build a Lasting Majority in American Politics" which calls for splitting up California etc.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/13/politics/2020-rankings-presidential/index.html


Beto already at number 2 in cnn and they admit if he wasn't coy he would be 1.

Some really good lines in that article:

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Beto has the "it."

[Beet]

The Beto is the new Bernie stuff proves the Bernie energy was never about his ideology.... sorry leftists.

[ViaActiva]

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This sums it up well - Beto is the candidate for the viral generation. It's not like the Presidency is a serious job or anything...