Should Israel Bomb Iranian Nuclear Sites?

[Ben.]

Or rather should the United States effectively sanction a military strike by Israel to eliminate the Iranian Nuclear program?

IMHO the answer is yes, the threat to the security of Israel and the stability of the entire Middle East would be greatly threatened by Iran developing a nuclear arsenal of its own. It is simply IMO to much of a risk to allow Iran to develop such a nuclear capability, especially with its present militant leadership in Tehran.

With a military invasion by the United States, and… er… Great Britain (?) pretty much on the far side of impossible, not to say unworkable… the best possible course of action to assure peace in the region and prevent Iran from achieving what this administration allowed North Korea to achieve is to give Israel free reign to obliterate these nuclear sites in Iranian territory, the risk of allowing them to create a nuclear arsenal is simply to great!

[afleitch]

No. I dislike Iran immensly, but nothing should be done immaediately. The Iranian president, I believe, will be 'calmy' removed by the powers that be in Iran soon enough. He's been President for 100 days and has done nothing so far apart from destroy Irans fragile standing on the world stage.

[phk]

No, doing that would create a disaster. I'd reckon oil prices would reach catastrophic heights of $120 a barrel.

This move would immensely piss off Iraqi Shiites, a group which likes Iran for the most part. These people starting up insurgent groups and  would be terrible. Then you'd put Musharraf in Pakistan at risk of getting overthrown by hardliners and them aiming thier nukes at Delhi and Tel Aviv.

[DanielX]

No, the Americans and/or the British ought to .

[Jake]

I think we should "discover" a technical problem with our AWACS aircraft and be forced to ground the whole fleet of them. Israel should be able to travel through Iraqi airspace and we would have a halfway decent excuse for why we didn't see them.

[phk]

I think we should "discover" a technical problem with our AWACS aircraft and be forced to ground the whole fleet of them. Israel should be able to travel through Iraqi airspace and we would have a halfway decent excuse for why we didn't see them.

Why would the new Iraqi govt allow Israel to use thier airspace? They SIGNED a defense pact with Iran, which includes training thier army.

Thier constitution even bars Israelis from ever holding Iraqi citizenship.

[Jake]

Iraq's government has no way to stop Israel from using their airspace and even have no way of knowing whether Israel is using their airspace if American airborne radar platforms aren't in the air.

[phk]

Day One: Wednesday

In a pre-dawn raid, undisclosed numbers of Israeli warplanes, taking off from military airbases in the Negev, destroy Iran’s main nuclear facility at Bushehr. Israel’s armed forces have released no details, but it is believed the planes flew over parts of Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, refueling in mid-air before reaching their target. Military analysts speculate that the planes must have refueled somewhere over Iraq.

During the one-hour raid, Iran claims to have shot down “several” Israeli fighters. Television images show pilots being lynched by furious mobs before Iranian authorities could reach them. The after-effects of the raid shake the Arab and Islamic world. Millions take to the streets demanding immediate action against Israel.

In planning the attack, Israel weighed the threats of Arab and Muslim reaction. The only other nuclear threat, and a possible danger to Israel, is Pakistan. Israel considered striking Pakistan’s nuclear sites, too, but Indian intelligence reports that Pakistan lacks long-distance delivery for its warheads. Bombay is the farthest they can reach. Additional reassurance from American intelligence convinced Israel that as long as Musharraf remains in power, Pakistan does not represent an imminent threat. The decision was made not to hit Pakistan.

Day Two: Thursday

Believing that Israel would never undertake such actions without U.S. approval, or at least a tacit nod from the American administration, Iran retaliates. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards are dispatched across the border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops as possible. Fierce clashes erupt between coalition forces and Iranians. Within hours, more than 400 U.S. troops are killed, and many more wounded in heavy fighting. Iranian sleeper agents, who have infiltrated Iraq since the downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shi’ites into action. They cut major highways and harass coalition troops, preventing reinforcements from reaching units under attack. Several helicopters are shot down.

Tehran orders the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, Hezbollah, into action against northern Israel. Hezbollah launches scores of rockets and mortars against kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliates. Casualties are high on both sides of the frontier. Tension in the Middle East reaches a boiling point. In Washington, the Cabinet convenes in an emergency session.

Massive demonstrations erupt all over the Arab and Islamic world. Crowds of gigantic proportions take to the streets, ransacking Israeli embassies in Cairo, Amman, and Ankara. American embassies in a number of other cities are burned. With police overwhelmed, the military is called in. Armies open fire, killing hundreds, adding to the outrage.

Day Three: Friday

Following Friday prayers across the Islamic world, crowds incited by fiery sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi take to the streets in the worst protests yet. Government buildings are ransacked, and clashes with security forces result in greater casualties. Martial law is declared, and curfew imposed, but this fails to prevent further mayhem and rioting. Islamist groups call for the overthrow of governments and for immediate military action against Israel.

In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security forces in several cities. The whereabouts of the Saudi royal family are unknown. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel. Oil prices fly to record highs.

Day Four: Saturday

A longstanding plan to overthrow Musharraf is carried out by senior Pakistani army officers loyal to the Islamic fundamentalists and with close ties to bin Laden. The coup is carried out in utmost secrecy.

Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI—a long-time supporter of the fundamentalists—in agreement with the plotters, takes control of the country’s nuclear arsenal and its codes. Within hours, and before news of the coup leaks out, Pakistan, now run by pro-bin Laden fundamentalists, loads two nuclear weapons aboard executive Lear jets that take off from a remote military airfield, headed for Tel Aviv and Ashdod. Detouring and refueling in east Africa, they approach Israel from the south. The crafts identify themselves as South African. Their tail markings match the given identification.

The two planes with their deadly cargo are flown by suicide pilots who, armed with false flight plans and posing as business executives, follow the flight path given to them by Israeli air traffic control. At the last moment, however, the planes veer away from the airfield, soar into the sky and dive into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the process. During the process Pakistani hardliners lob nuclear missles into Bombay and Delhi.

The rest of this scenario can unfold in a number of ways. Take your pick; none are encouraging.

Israel and India retaliate against Pakistan, killing millions in the process. Arab governments fall. Following days of violence, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt succumb to Islamist rebels who vow open warfare with Israel. The Middle East regresses into war, with the fighting claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. A much-weakened Israel, now struggling for its very survival, deploys more nuclear weapons, targeting multiple Arab capitals. The Middle East is in complete mayhem, as the United States desperately tries to arrange a cease-fire.

[Ben.]

Day One: Wednesday

In a pre-dawn raid, undisclosed numbers of Israeli warplanes, taking off from military airbases in the Negev, destroy Iran’s main nuclear facility at Bushehr. Israel’s armed forces have released no details, but it is believed the planes flew over parts of Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, refueling in mid-air before reaching their target. Military analysts speculate that the planes must have refueled somewhere over Iraq.

During the one-hour raid, Iran claims to have shot down “several” Israeli fighters. Television images show pilots being lynched by furious mobs before Iranian authorities could reach them. The after-effects of the raid shake the Arab and Islamic world. Millions take to the streets demanding immediate action against Israel.

In planning the attack, Israel weighed the threats of Arab and Muslim reaction. The only other nuclear threat, and a possible danger to Israel, is Pakistan. Israel considered striking Pakistan’s nuclear sites, too, but Indian intelligence reports that Pakistan lacks long-distance delivery for its warheads. Bombay is the farthest they can reach. Additional reassurance from American intelligence convinced Israel that as long as Musharraf remains in power, Pakistan does not represent an imminent threat. The decision was made not to hit Pakistan.

Day Two: Thursday

Believing that Israel would never undertake such actions without U.S. approval, or at least a tacit nod from the American administration, Iran retaliates. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards are dispatched across the border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops as possible. Fierce clashes erupt between coalition forces and Iranians. Within hours, more than 400 U.S. troops are killed, and many more wounded in heavy fighting. Iranian sleeper agents, who have infiltrated Iraq since the downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shi’ites into action. They cut major highways and harass coalition troops, preventing reinforcements from reaching units under attack. Several helicopters are shot down.

Tehran orders the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, Hezbollah, into action against northern Israel. Hezbollah launches scores of rockets and mortars against kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliates. Casualties are high on both sides of the frontier. Tension in the Middle East reaches a boiling point. In Washington, the Cabinet convenes in an emergency session.

Massive demonstrations erupt all over the Arab and Islamic world. Crowds of gigantic proportions take to the streets, ransacking Israeli embassies in Cairo, Amman, and Ankara. American embassies in a number of other cities are burned. With police overwhelmed, the military is called in. Armies open fire, killing hundreds, adding to the outrage.

Day Three: Friday

Following Friday prayers across the Islamic world, crowds incited by fiery sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi take to the streets in the worst protests yet. Government buildings are ransacked, and clashes with security forces result in greater casualties. Martial law is declared, and curfew imposed, but this fails to prevent further mayhem and rioting. Islamist groups call for the overthrow of governments and for immediate military action against Israel.

In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security forces in several cities. The whereabouts of the Saudi royal family are unknown. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel. Oil prices fly to record highs.

Day Four: Saturday

A longstanding plan to overthrow Musharraf is carried out by senior Pakistani army officers loyal to the Islamic fundamentalists and with close ties to bin Laden. The coup is carried out in utmost secrecy.

Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI—a long-time supporter of the fundamentalists—in agreement with the plotters, takes control of the country’s nuclear arsenal and its codes. Within hours, and before news of the coup leaks out, Pakistan, now run by pro-bin Laden fundamentalists, loads two nuclear weapons aboard executive Lear jets that take off from a remote military airfield, headed for Tel Aviv and Ashdod. Detouring and refueling in east Africa, they approach Israel from the south. The crafts identify themselves as South African. Their tail markings match the given identification.

The two planes with their deadly cargo are flown by suicide pilots who, armed with false flight plans and posing as business executives, follow the flight path given to them by Israeli air traffic control. At the last moment, however, the planes veer away from the airfield, soar into the sky and dive into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the process. During the process Pakistani hardliners lob nuclear missles into Bombay and Delhi.

The rest of this scenario can unfold in a number of ways. Take your pick; none are encouraging.

Israel and India retaliate against Pakistan, killing millions in the process. Arab governments fall. Following days of violence, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt succumb to Islamist rebels who vow open warfare with Israel. The Middle East regresses into war, with the fighting claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. A much-weakened Israel, now struggling for its very survival, deploys more nuclear weapons, targeting multiple Arab capitals. The Middle East is in complete mayhem, as the United States desperately tries to arrange a cease-fire.

I doubt we'd see that simply from one air raid against Iran. Didn't see it when Isreal bombed Iraq back in the eighties don't think we'd see it now... though I think that while we'd get rid of Iran's nuclear arsenal we'd potentially deeply destabilise Iran's political leadership... then again that might not be a bad thing, ultimately an Iranian civil war or at least period of sustained, introspective instability could be very good for us… but then there would be the risk of even more militant Islamists filling any power vacuum in Iran.

Ultimately though, I strongly doubt that taking out Iran’s nuclear sites would prompt the kind of Middle Eastern melt down you suggest… sure there would be risks, but militant Islamists in Iran with nuclear war heads at there disposal is an even greater risk if you ask me. On the other hand we could always just get the Iranian leader killed off… oh to have the Shah back again        

[dazzleman]

No. I dislike Iran immensly, but nothing should be done immaediately. The Iranian president, I believe, will be 'calmy' removed by the powers that be in Iran soon enough. He's been President for 100 days and has done nothing so far apart from destroy Irans fragile standing on the world stage.

But it was the "powers that be" (read: stinky filthy mullahs who wear foul-smelling turbans) that put him into office.  They controlled that "election" and whomever they wanted to win is the one who would have won.  They picked this nutcase.

[opebo]

Should Hitler have invaded Poland?

[Ben.]

Should Hitler have invaded Poland?

Constructive as ever.

I think likening Israel to Nazi Germany, and Iran to a brutal and petulant if ultimately harmless military dictatorship is pretty damn wide of the mark!   

Unlike Poland in 1939, Iran has a credible military which has been tacitly supporting terrorism aimed at destabilising its neighbours and now seems pledged to eradicate a near by state, and will soon have weapons of immense power with which to do it… so don’t come out with such inaccurate comparisons.

[phk]

No. I dislike Iran immensly, but nothing should be done immaediately. The Iranian president, I believe, will be 'calmy' removed by the powers that be in Iran soon enough. He's been President for 100 days and has done nothing so far apart from destroy Irans fragile standing on the world stage.

But it was the "powers that be" (read: stinky filthy mullahs who wear foul-smelling turbans) that put him into office.  They controlled that "election" and whomever they wanted to win is the one who would have won.  They picked this nutcase.

Actually he won against a more moderate candidate with establishment backing in a landslide.

[phk]

Day One: Wednesday

In a pre-dawn raid, undisclosed numbers of Israeli warplanes, taking off from military airbases in the Negev, destroy Iran’s main nuclear facility at Bushehr. Israel’s armed forces have released no details, but it is believed the planes flew over parts of Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, refueling in mid-air before reaching their target. Military analysts speculate that the planes must have refueled somewhere over Iraq.

During the one-hour raid, Iran claims to have shot down “several” Israeli fighters. Television images show pilots being lynched by furious mobs before Iranian authorities could reach them. The after-effects of the raid shake the Arab and Islamic world. Millions take to the streets demanding immediate action against Israel.

In planning the attack, Israel weighed the threats of Arab and Muslim reaction. The only other nuclear threat, and a possible danger to Israel, is Pakistan. Israel considered striking Pakistan’s nuclear sites, too, but Indian intelligence reports that Pakistan lacks long-distance delivery for its warheads. Bombay is the farthest they can reach. Additional reassurance from American intelligence convinced Israel that as long as Musharraf remains in power, Pakistan does not represent an imminent threat. The decision was made not to hit Pakistan.

Day Two: Thursday

Believing that Israel would never undertake such actions without U.S. approval, or at least a tacit nod from the American administration, Iran retaliates. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards are dispatched across the border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops as possible. Fierce clashes erupt between coalition forces and Iranians. Within hours, more than 400 U.S. troops are killed, and many more wounded in heavy fighting. Iranian sleeper agents, who have infiltrated Iraq since the downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shi’ites into action. They cut major highways and harass coalition troops, preventing reinforcements from reaching units under attack. Several helicopters are shot down.

Tehran orders the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, Hezbollah, into action against northern Israel. Hezbollah launches scores of rockets and mortars against kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliates. Casualties are high on both sides of the frontier. Tension in the Middle East reaches a boiling point. In Washington, the Cabinet convenes in an emergency session.

Massive demonstrations erupt all over the Arab and Islamic world. Crowds of gigantic proportions take to the streets, ransacking Israeli embassies in Cairo, Amman, and Ankara. American embassies in a number of other cities are burned. With police overwhelmed, the military is called in. Armies open fire, killing hundreds, adding to the outrage.

Day Three: Friday

Following Friday prayers across the Islamic world, crowds incited by fiery sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi take to the streets in the worst protests yet. Government buildings are ransacked, and clashes with security forces result in greater casualties. Martial law is declared, and curfew imposed, but this fails to prevent further mayhem and rioting. Islamist groups call for the overthrow of governments and for immediate military action against Israel.

In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security forces in several cities. The whereabouts of the Saudi royal family are unknown. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel. Oil prices fly to record highs.

Day Four: Saturday

A longstanding plan to overthrow Musharraf is carried out by senior Pakistani army officers loyal to the Islamic fundamentalists and with close ties to bin Laden. The coup is carried out in utmost secrecy.

Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI—a long-time supporter of the fundamentalists—in agreement with the plotters, takes control of the country’s nuclear arsenal and its codes. Within hours, and before news of the coup leaks out, Pakistan, now run by pro-bin Laden fundamentalists, loads two nuclear weapons aboard executive Lear jets that take off from a remote military airfield, headed for Tel Aviv and Ashdod. Detouring and refueling in east Africa, they approach Israel from the south. The crafts identify themselves as South African. Their tail markings match the given identification.

The two planes with their deadly cargo are flown by suicide pilots who, armed with false flight plans and posing as business executives, follow the flight path given to them by Israeli air traffic control. At the last moment, however, the planes veer away from the airfield, soar into the sky and dive into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the process. During the process Pakistani hardliners lob nuclear missles into Bombay and Delhi.

The rest of this scenario can unfold in a number of ways. Take your pick; none are encouraging.

Israel and India retaliate against Pakistan, killing millions in the process. Arab governments fall. Following days of violence, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt succumb to Islamist rebels who vow open warfare with Israel. The Middle East regresses into war, with the fighting claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. A much-weakened Israel, now struggling for its very survival, deploys more nuclear weapons, targeting multiple Arab capitals. The Middle East is in complete mayhem, as the United States desperately tries to arrange a cease-fire.

I doubt we'd see that simply from one air raid against Iran. Didn't see it when Isreal bombed Iraq back in the eighties don't think we'd see it now... though I think that while we'd get rid of Iran's nuclear arsenal we'd potentially deeply destabilise Iran's political leadership... then again that might not be a bad thing, ultimately an Iranian civil war or at least period of sustained, introspective instability could be very good for us… but then there would be the risk of even more militant Islamists filling any power vacuum in Iran.

Ultimately though, I strongly doubt that taking out Iran’s nuclear sites would prompt the kind of Middle Eastern melt down you suggest… sure there would be risks, but militant Islamists in Iran with nuclear war heads at there disposal is an even greater risk if you ask me. On the other hand we could always just get the Iranian leader killed off… oh to have the Shah back again        

Iran 2005 is different from Iraq 1980.

[© tweed]

No, not yet.  My hunch is that the latest comments from Iran are just "tough talk."  If things progress, however, and it seems Iran is planning to act on their words, then I'd have to say yes.  But not now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. I dislike Iran immensly, but nothing should be done immaediately. The Iranian president, I believe, will be 'calmy' removed by the powers that be in Iran soon enough. He's been President for 100 days and has done nothing so far apart from destroy Irans fragile standing on the world stage.

But it was the "powers that be" (read: stinky filthy mullahs who wear foul-smelling turbans) that put him into office.  They controlled that "election" and whomever they wanted to win is the one who would have won.  They picked this nutcase.

Actually no. His more moderate opponent was the establishment backed candidate.

[dazzleman]

No. I dislike Iran immensly, but nothing should be done immaediately. The Iranian president, I believe, will be 'calmy' removed by the powers that be in Iran soon enough. He's been President for 100 days and has done nothing so far apart from destroy Irans fragile standing on the world stage.

But it was the "powers that be" (read: stinky filthy mullahs who wear foul-smelling turbans) that put him into office.  They controlled that "election" and whomever they wanted to win is the one who would have won.  They picked this nutcase.

Actually no. His more moderate opponent was the establishment backed candidate.

What establishment?  The establishment that you speak of has all the power that a high school student council has in running the school.  Do you honestly think the mullahs didn't control the outcome of that "election?"  The mullahs chose this guy because they run the show in Iran.  The election results were manipulated to produce the outcome they wanted.  To believe anything different is highly fallacious.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. I dislike Iran immensly, but nothing should be done immaediately. The Iranian president, I believe, will be 'calmy' removed by the powers that be in Iran soon enough. He's been President for 100 days and has done nothing so far apart from destroy Irans fragile standing on the world stage.

But it was the "powers that be" (read: stinky filthy mullahs who wear foul-smelling turbans) that put him into office.  They controlled that "election" and whomever they wanted to win is the one who would have won.  They picked this nutcase.

Actually no. His more moderate opponent was the establishment backed candidate.

What establishment?  The establishment that you speak of has all the power that a high school student council has in running the school.  Do you honestly think the mullahs didn't control the outcome of that "election?"  The mullahs chose this guy because they run the show in Iran.  The election results were manipulated to produce the outcome they wanted.  To believe anything different is highly fallacious.

No, by the establishment I meant the mullahs. They supported the other guy. Iranian elections are certainly far from fair or democratic to put it rather mildly, but they obviously didn't rig the last two that elected the moderate reformist guy. There was really no reason to, since they tied his hands the whole time. That's what the mullahs want, not a guy like this just causing them more trouble and embarassment.

[phk]

The mullah's supported Rafsanjani who IS THE ESTABLISHMENT.

[MODU]

No.  We can't afford to have Israel flying over Iraq.  First of all, Iran will take it as a sign that the US authorized the attack.  Secondly, Iraq still isn't Israel-friendly, and might cause an uprising in the country against the US for allowing the US-controlled airspace to be "violated" by a foreign nation.

[Hitchabrut]

Yes. Israel needs to be allowed to use its military.

[MasterJedi]

Yes if the UN doesn't do anything. So that will be awhile and the UN won't do anything so then Israel should do it.

[AuH2O]

They COULD avoid flying over Iraq, but it would mean ditching the planes used. If they're willing to do that I wouldn't complain, but I don't really support such an action.

[Joe Republic]

I don't think Iran would be so stupid as to nuke Israel.  After all, why would they turn the land they've been wanting to claim back for Islam for decades into a wasteland?

But I guess if Israel wanted to do this, then I can't see why we should stop them.

[Inverted Things]

If they want to. They shouldn't expect our support if they do, however.