What explains Hillary Clinton's sudden October 2015 poll surge?
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  What explains Hillary Clinton's sudden October 2015 poll surge?
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Author Topic: What explains Hillary Clinton's sudden October 2015 poll surge?  (Read 1620 times)
Beet
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« on: December 04, 2018, 12:18:19 AM »



Contrary to popular wisdom, a candidate with a commanding polling lead six months before the election is not inevitable. Clinton began to weaken in the primary polls in summer 2015 and entered a dive by late summer. As my chart shows, Sanders continued his trendline of gradual increase as he had throughout his entire campaign. Had Clinton's trendline also continued, they would have crossed at some point in the winter of 2015/16 and Sanders taken the lead.

However, in October 2015, she suddenly surged 11 points, from 44% to 55%, and stayed there for the rest of the primary, effectively denying Sanders a chance at a national majority, and the nomination. In retrospect, October 2015 decided the Democratic nomination. I checked the polls, and her surge was bigger than either her post-convention bounce or her post-debate bounce in the GE. It may have been Hillary Clinton's biggest ever national polling surge in her entire career.

Why? I don't remember any major piece of news in October 2015.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2018, 12:21:33 AM »

People vaguely curious about Sanders came home, just as Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina were once ahead of Trump.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2018, 12:23:02 AM »

Biden declined to run.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2018, 12:29:29 AM »


This, plus the Benghazi hearing and the first debate were pretty big positive events for her.
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2018, 04:02:14 PM »


This, plus the Benghazi hearing and the first debate were pretty big positive events for her.

Yeah basically.
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President Phil Scott
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2018, 09:18:06 PM »

The debates, Trump's (normal) controversies, less attention focused on Clinton's health, and most importantly Access Hollywood.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2018, 10:34:06 PM »

The debates, Trump's (normal) controversies, less attention focused on Clinton's health, and most importantly Access Hollywood.

The thread is referring to October 2015, not October 2016. lol
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2018, 11:37:28 PM »

Dumb pollsters were polling Biden at the time iirc
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