Who can retool the Conservative Party (UK) post-May?

[Suburbia]

Theresa May is an accidental prime minister. She will not last long as prime minister or Tory leader.

Who can retool the party and at least keep it relevant before the Corbynites take over Britain's culture and politics?

[rc18]

There was no accident to May becoming prime minister, her job was to ensure we didn't leave.

It's funny that their opponents have long derided the Tories as putting party before country, but now they are putting the EU before both.

The only saviour of the Tories will be pm Corbyn.  The squealers posting cable rates are in for a coronary come that day. The question is whether the liberal wets or conservative faction are most effective in opposing him.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

OSBORNE!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The idea of Osborne returning is a non starter: even if he rejoined the MP, he has burned a lot of bridges with his activist position in the Standard. Not to mention the Tory base, who would be nigh on apocalyptic.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Apparently it's between Javid or Hunt. Javid would be the smart bet for Tories.

[Lord Halifax]

Apparently it's between Javid or Hunt. Javid would be the smart bet for Tories.

So they will go with Hunt?

[gerritcole]

Rees-Mogg

[Alabama_Indy10]

JACOB REES-MOGG!!

[mileslunn]

How about Boris Johnson?  Yes he is a bit of joker and not everyone takes him seriously, but he is pro-leave so will appease that side, yet he is from London and more moderate so can appeal to younger, urban, and more diverse voters.  While I don't think he is the best choice, I am wondering what others think of him.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

How about Boris Johnson?  Yes he is a bit of joker and not everyone takes him seriously, but he is pro-leave so will appease that side, yet he is from London and more moderate so can appeal to younger, urban, and more diverse voters.  While I don't think he is the best choice, I am wondering what others think of him.

Have you been in a coma for the last 3 years

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Realistically? No one. Theresa May has written the party's obituary.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How about Boris Johnson?  Yes he is a bit of joker and not everyone takes him seriously, but he is pro-leave so will appease that side, yet he is from London and more moderate so can appeal to younger, urban, and more diverse voters.  While I don't think he is the best choice, I am wondering what others think of him.

Is this an actual serious question?

[Alabama_Indy10]

How about Boris Johnson?  Yes he is a bit of joker and not everyone takes him seriously, but he is pro-leave so will appease that side, yet he is from London and more moderate so can appeal to younger, urban, and more diverse voters.  While I don't think he is the best choice, I am wondering what others think of him.

Is this an actual serious question?

[mileslunn]

How about Boris Johnson?  Yes he is a bit of joker and not everyone takes him seriously, but he is pro-leave so will appease that side, yet he is from London and more moderate so can appeal to younger, urban, and more diverse voters.  While I don't think he is the best choice, I am wondering what others think of him.

Is this an actual serious question?

Yes I don't think he is the best choice, but he still has his fans.  Many said Donald Trump was the worst choice for GOP leader yet still won.  Here in Canada, people said the same about Doug Ford, but he is now premier so we are in an era where people like straight talking politicians who don't follow the rules.  As someone who lives in an urban core and is mostly surrounded liberal elites, so I was asking if Johnson does have a populist appeal which seems to sell well today.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How about Boris Johnson?  Yes he is a bit of joker and not everyone takes him seriously, but he is pro-leave so will appease that side, yet he is from London and more moderate so can appeal to younger, urban, and more diverse voters.  While I don't think he is the best choice, I am wondering what others think of him.

Is this an actual serious question?

Yes I don't think he is the best choice, but he still has his fans.  Many said Donald Trump was the worst choice for GOP leader yet still won.  Here in Canada, people said the same about Doug Ford, but he is now premier so we are in an era where people like straight talking politicians who don't follow the rules.  As someone who lives in an urban core and is mostly surrounded liberal elites, so I was asking if Johnson does have a populist appeal which seems to sell well today.

The London Mayoralty is a joke position where one can remain very popular by being sort of genial. However the days where Boris Johnson could win support from Londoners has long since passed, and he is no more popular in the capital than May or Raab or whatever. Arguably he doesn't even grasp the Brexit crew as much as more "sincere" Eurosceptics like Rees Mogg or Mordaunt (it is well known that Johnson chose his position in the Brexit campaign for craven reasons, even amongst his ostensible allies). And most importantly his disastrous tenure as Foreign Secretary, which should be literally be one of the easiest jobs to handle, irredeemably wrecked his reputation in the eyes of the public and the Tory backbench.

I wouldn't be surprised if he loses his seat next election, in all honesty.

[Lumine]

Given that Johnson still seems to retain some degree of popularity amongst the Tory membership it's possible he could win the leadership on the party members vote, but I'm 99% sure he simply would not survive the parliamentary party vote for the reasons outlined by others before and others. That, the fact that his election would be highly divisive for the party - as even his previous close allies felt compelled to knife him out of fear that he wasn't up to task of being PM - and the degree of polarization he seems to create would ensure he'd make May look popular by comparison.

Still, I can't help but to think that character/personality/threatrics will play a decisive role in allowing a given leader to climb back from the current mess (as in, someone who appears to display an actual personality instead of looking like a robot). From an objective point of view the Conservative Party ought be polling at less than 30% on account of sheer incompetence, division and chaos, and the fact that even now they're still tied with Labour as Corbyn is unable to close the deal indicates that, bewildering as it might look, they could still avoid full-blown disaster and electoral collapse.

On the other hand, there's no realistic solution to the Brexit mess at this point and they're stuck with May for at least another year, so I don't expect them to salvage the situation until it's too late.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Whoever opinion polls show has the highest chance of winning an immediate election.

The Tories have only one important task ahead of them - making sure Jeremy Corbyn doesn't take power. There'll be other challenges, but none of them will matter if that's not accomplished first.

I think it's Hunt. Javid is the most qualified choice, but he would rile up the nativist populists and send UKIP voters over to Labour in droves.

[Lumine]

Whoever opinion polls show has the highest chance of winning an immediate election.

The Tories have only one important task ahead of them - making sure Jeremy Corbyn doesn't take power. There'll be other challenges, but none of them will matter if that's not accomplished first.

I think it's Hunt. Javid is the most qualified choice, but he would rile up the nativist populists and send UKIP voters over to Labour in droves.

Isn't Hunt massively unpopular after six years as Health Secretary and a not impressive stint as Foreign Secretary? I'd be truly surprised if he didn't have a sky high rate of disapproval.

[ViaActiva]

All of the main leadership contenders have negative popularity ratings. Ruth Davidson is the most talented politician in the country but has ruled herself out.

There are talented MPs outside of the frontrunners: Tom Tugendhat, Rory Stewart, Rishi Sunak, Tracey Crouch, Lucy Frazer.

[vileplume]

Whoever opinion polls show has the highest chance of winning an immediate election.

The Tories have only one important task ahead of them - making sure Jeremy Corbyn doesn't take power. There'll be other challenges, but none of them will matter if that's not accomplished first.

I think it's Hunt. Javid is the most qualified choice, but he would rile up the nativist populists and send UKIP voters over to Labour in droves.

As others have said Hunt would be an appalling choice. He has too much baggage from his stint as Health Secretary (one of the longest serving in history I think) and health is a major Tory Achilles heel.

Javid is probably the best choice despite being rather uninspiring. He's not an idiot like Leadsom, carrying loads of baggage like Hunt, a hate figure of the left like McVey, doesn't hold a very vulnerable seats like Rudd and isn't a totally unprincipled opportunist like BoJo. Basically he's probably the one with the least negatives. Hammond would also be a 'stable'choice though I don't think he'll run.

Also if by 'nativist populists' you mean racists then good the Tories shouldn't be trying to win their votes anyway but if you mean 'ex-UKIP voters' then I don't think he'd be a major turn off at all, the main problem *most* of these voters have is 'integration' as opposed to race and Sajid Javid in unquestionably 'integrated'. According to a Daily Mail poll of Tory councillors he would actually be their top choice to take over from May (and since the Tory membership is so hollowed out councillors would represent a rather large % of the Tory selectorate).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Javid has been trying to cover that 'nativist' weakness by dogwhistling about "sick Asian paedophiles" and the like. The racist vote won't be a problem for him.

[Blair]

Oh so many thoughts.

Firstly, Miles, as I said on the UK thread BoJo is a busted flush- he's got some of the worst personal ratings of any UK politician. His disastrous spell as Foreign Secretary (where his incompetent got a woman imprisoned in Iran) his prosperity for vanity projects as Mayor of London (spent £50 million on a bridge never built) and most of all, his callous lying in the 2016 vote, have all killed his 'brand'. His career was dead when Leave won- was confirmed when he was booed leaving his own home in London.

Besides the most divisive candidate never wins the Tory Selection- Ken Clarke, Portillo and Gove are all high profile politicians who lost because a mass of Tory MPs backed someone purely to stop them. If Boris runs, you'll have a lot of 'sensible' types backing Hunt, Javid or god probably David Davis, to stop Boris getting into the final round. (Where as Lumine says, the geriatric bigots in the Tory Membership will back him)


I'm stealing the argument from Stephen Bush- but the Tories debate is essentially one of Battersea vs Ashford. Do they try and win back the urban remain heavy seats that they easily won with Cameron, or do they double down and try and win Leave voting traditionally Labour seats (which have been swinging for the last 2 election cycles). Of course it's possible to do both.

In regards to the other runners and riders they reassemble the usual dire choices you get from Cabinet successors (no successful postwar PM with the exemption of Macmillan has emerged from the Cabinet) Javid and Hunt's main skill is surviving, and waiting for promotions that occurred from cock ups

[ViaActiva]

I'm stealing the argument from Stephen Bush- but the Tories debate is essentially one of Battersea vs Ashford. Do they try and win back the urban remain heavy seats that they easily won with Cameron, or do they double down and try and win Leave voting traditionally Labour seats (which have been swinging for the last 2 election cycles). Of course it's possible to do both.

There is also a middle ground of bellwether seats (generally small cities and large towns with high no. of skilled WC and lower MC) like Bedford, Ipswich, Peterborough, Southampton Itchen, that are not as pro-Remain/leave as the ones you mention but tend to vote on economic competence and are not natural hotbeds of Corbynism.

[Blair]

Yeah- there were some genuine surprises (seats that had 10k Tory majorities in 2015 are now marginals) and likewise with Labour- the changes in turnout, decline of UKIP/Lib Dem voters, remain v leave, and untested leaders all meant that 2017 really was hard to model- and it will be the same in the next election

[DaWN]

The Conservative party survived Blair, it'll probably survive this. With how terminally useless Corbyn's Labour is, they might not even end up leaving government for a while yet (although admittedly they're crap enough that they will probably do the best they can to make sure he does win).

But who to take it forward? Considering the clear lack of anyone who could even remotely both do the job and be acceptable the broader party? That's a difficult one.

In terms of May's immediate successor, it'll be whichever senior cabinet minister the party hates the least by the time she goes. If I had to put money on it, at the moment I'd say Hunt, but Javid or anyone else who's name isn't Philip Hammond is a possibility. I won't envy whoever it is, going into what is the most poisoned of poisoned chalices, with the only respite being an easy time at PMQs because Corbyn will probably forget what country he's in or do something else crap and useless.

In the long term, it of course depends what happens - if Brexit causes the entire political establishment to just wash away (like I'm desperately hoping it will, which means there's 0% chance it will happen) then it's probably irrelevant what the husk of a party does. If God hates Britain, then we're stuck with these idiots for a while yet, and the party will have to choose it's direction. At the moment, I'd say the 'loony right' option is the best bet for what'll happen. The membership probably wants it, there's going to be no shortage of Rees-Mogg wannabees in the future, and if (when) Brexit goes tits up, the 'we should have had an even harder Brexit!' brigade is going to have a very influencial voice. And besides, many of them must be thinking 'if Labour can turn into complete nutters, why can't we?' Importantly, what other wing of the party is going to take over? The Cameronites are utterly discredited, the one-nationers are irrelevant, anyone associated with May will be toxic for a long time.

So, TL;DR, in the short term the answer is 'whichever cabinet minister draws the short straw' and in the long term the answer is 'the Rees-Mogg brigade.' Fascinating stuff if you're not British, and more than enough to make you want to look and see what other countries it's easy to get citizenship of if you are.