Name a candidate that’s economically populist enough to win KY-Gov for Dems

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting map, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

It's tough to see it going Democratic by 20, yeah. However, I'd say that Democrats need to win it by that much to win Kentucky.

[IceSpear]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting maps, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

eh I can see it.
Look at Ok 5th and Kendra Horns and Edmonsons margins
I think Matt bevin is pretty weak but this race is Safe R still
However the less rural hick counties like Ky 6th which has a decent chance to trend D in 2020 might against him by large margins.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he carried KY-06, just that outperforming McGrath by 20+ points sounds like a major stretch.

[IceSpear]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting map, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

It's tough to see it going Democratic by 20, yeah. However, I'd say that Democrats need to win it by that much to win Kentucky.

Indeed, which is why I see it as totally unwinnable. Outperforming Conway and keeping it within single digits I could see if everything goes right for Beshear, but winning just seems to be a bridge too far.

[lfromnj]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting map, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

It's tough to see it going Democratic by 20, yeah. However, I'd say that Democrats need to win it by that much to win Kentucky.

Indeed, which is why I see it as totally unwinnable. Outperforming Conway and keeping it within single digits I could see if everything goes right for Beshear, but winning just seems to be a bridge too far.

I think he does almost hit is ky 06 and the 3rd margins along with some decent margins in the 4th too but the problem is the other 3 districts are just hicks and they will swing even harder R.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Here are 2015 CD margins
KY-01: 39.0%-58.0%
KY-02: 39.6%-56.7%
KY-03: 59.1%-37.6%
KY-04: 38.1%-58.3%
KY-05: 34.0%-62.7%
KY-06: 48.8%-46.2%

and swings
KY-01: R+2.0
KY-02: D+10.8
KY-03: D+12.8
KY-04: D+26.0
KY-05: R+9.1
KY-06: D+16.8


Rural areas swing R, urban areas swing D, suburbs swing very strongly D.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

You really think there is a chance that a Dem can even get within single digits in KY-04?

Those three Cincinnati suburb counties didn't even trend to Hillary in 2016.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

You really think there is a chance that a Dem can even get within single digits in KY-04?

Those three Cincinnati suburb counties didn't even trend to Hillary in 2016.

2 of them did, and the third barely trended R. This is while the state moved strongly R. Those were also the 3 counties where Rand Paul outran Trump.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

You really think there is a chance that a Dem can even get within single digits in KY-04?

Those three Cincinnati suburb counties didn't even trend to Hillary in 2016.

2 of them did, and the third barely trended R. This is while the state moved strongly R. Those were also the 3 counties where Rand Paul outran Trump.

I was looking at the swing rather than the trend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats probably lose Elliott even if they win the governorship.

[Bidenworth2020]

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Yep

[DINGO Joe]

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Yep

Well, he won a dozen by my count.

[Lechasseur]

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Yep