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Author Topic: MT-SEN 2020: Time for Bullock?  (Read 4301 times)
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #50 on: December 05, 2018, 06:39:55 am »

Atlas dems on Bullock running for senate: OMG TILT D/TOSS UP!!!
Atlas dems on Baker running for senate: Massachusetts is solid D, never going to vote for a republican to the senate.

Atlas Dems? The only two people in this thread to call it toss up or tilt D are both Republicans.
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« Reply #51 on: December 05, 2018, 06:41:34 am »

Atlas dems on Bullock running for senate: OMG TILT D/TOSS UP!!!
Atlas dems on Baker running for senate: Massachusetts is solid D, never going to vote for a republican to the senate.
If Weld couldn't win in 1996, why could Baker win in 2020?
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« Reply #52 on: December 05, 2018, 06:46:14 am »

Cool. Need the best candidates on all the Likely R states.
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« Reply #53 on: December 05, 2018, 07:20:57 am »


Anyway, Ill make a take, since its all the rage.

MT is a special state in the Mountain West, having an odd Democratic statewide tradition that has lasted until now. The D candidate in question is Steve Bullock, the incredibly popular current governor of MT. The Republican is Steve Daines, moderately unpopular, but not much else. The race would be held during the presidential race, and that could severely influence results.

Anyway, Bullock has the advantages of being both popular and a current governor, a combo that is rather deadly in electoral politics(Angus King, Rick Scott, Joe Manchin, and Maggie Hassan can attest to this) and MT's willingness to vote D, more than other states gives a clear advantage. And while polarization is a major factor these days, popularity appears to be more so, as it was the only factor that was able to accurately predict the winners of each race(all Ds with a negative approval lost in 2018, for example, and overpreformances in SD and KS, and underpreformances in OK were closely tied to the popularity of both the R and the D, not to mention house races). But Polarization must still be taken into account, and unless MT swings to R+5-10, its going to take a lot to get the state Blue. We also have no idea what 2020 will be like, and if polarization that held in 2016-2018 is the new norm, or just the effect of having an excellent economy.

Overall, I would say lean R, with a wide range of possibilities.
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« Reply #54 on: December 05, 2018, 07:44:10 am »

Yeah no one should be calling him bayh 2.0. We just saw with presidential turnout a dem senator win again. I'd say with a D plus 5 or greater environment Bullock wins
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« Reply #55 on: December 05, 2018, 08:02:24 am »

I think you missed the point of the Racist Hick comments. I'm simply pointing out facts, not celebrating it. I supported Bredesen, Edmondson, Heitkamp, etc. MT Treasurer hates most red state Democrats but still tends to overestimate them, I guess to keep his expectations low because Republicans were burnt so many times in red states in the past. But it's pretty obvious at this point that things have changed considering the slaughterfest 2018 was for red state Democrats even in a D+9 Democratic wave.

I think you were the one that missed my point? I obviously know that you, as a fairly partisan Democrat, support these candidates. And I'm well aware that you believe that your "hicks" narrative is a fact. I'm simply saying it's not a fact. Let's not forget how you so adamantly denied the possibility of a Senator Doug Jones until the last moment.

And in regards to the bolded, no, that was not clear at all. Bredesen was running in a better environment against a weaker candidate but in a far more hostile state. The latter won out, which was always a very strong possibility.

I should have worded that differently. Bredesen was running a stronger campaign, which is what I meant. It was due to the fact that he was running in TN, a far more hostile state than IN for Dems, that didn't make his position better than Bayh's, which is why I thought Blackburn would win back then.
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« Reply #56 on: December 05, 2018, 08:35:47 am »

Itís a Christmas miracle
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« Reply #57 on: December 05, 2018, 08:37:36 am »

Despite the politico article I had a feeling Bullock wouldn't be a complete idiot. Anyway I expect cook to move it out of safe r nkw.
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« Reply #58 on: December 05, 2018, 09:17:58 am »

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1070305804782329856
Its clear he is running for president or senate. There is no way he just exits politics. Now Cortez Masto has to kidnap his family and children until he runs for senate in 2020.
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« Reply #59 on: December 05, 2018, 10:19:45 am »

Only one of those people lost in a landslide though, which was exactly my point. As opposed to those three Democrats who just lost in a landslide in the deepest of blue states in a blue wave a month ago.

I thought you'd have gotten over your PTSD about red states electing Democrats after Bredesen, Heitkamp, and Edmondson got destroyed, Espy, McCaskill, Donnelly, Sutton, Hubbell, and Cordray got thumped, and Manchin and Tester had close calls and probably would've lost too if the GOP was more competent. And all this brutal carnage in the midst of a D+9 Democratic wave. Won't be satisfied until there's not a single red state Democrat left, huh? Tongue

Who cares by how much they lost, itís totally irrelevant. The mere fact that these Democrats managed to win in Trump +40, Trump +28, Trump +20, etc. states despite "polarization being at a historic high" or whatever is telling in and of itself. McCaskill and Heitkamp are pretty bad examples because they were extremely weak and unpopular incumbents who ran godawful campaigns which essentially threw away two very winnable races, and if anything they should have lost by more than 11 and 5 points, respectively. Sutton certainly didnít get "thumped", in fact I donít remember the last time a Democrat came within 3 points of winning a gubernatorial race in SD (the state hasnít elected a Democratic governor since 1974, the longest-running streak of GOP governors in the country). Espy getting "thumped" is also news to me (and most other posters, I would assume) since pretty much everyone except you would agree that he did a lot better than he should have done, and Hubbell literally only lost by 3%, lol. Donnelly's 5-point loss was a little more surprising, but letís not forget that he actually did 13 points better than his party's last presidential candidate. When was the last time a blue state Republican did that well? Yeah.. exactly. Any Republican incumbent in a Clinton +18 state would have been DOA and headed for a 12+ point loss from day one, even in a GOP wave.

Also, comparing Senate (Tester, Manchin, etc.) with gubernatorial races (Baker, Hogan, etc.) is a disingenuous and deliberately misleading apples to oranges comparison. Baker and Hogan would have lost by 25+ points if they had run for Senate in 2018 (or any other year, really), and you know it.

Maybe Atlas is right and Daines is really heavily favored and I know nothing about my state's politics, but given this forum's (poor) track record when it comes to predicting Montana elections Iíll happily stick with my prediction. Underestimate Bullock/MT Dems to your heart's content, Republicans, but donít say you werenít warned when the first poll of this race shows Bullock up by 8 points or something like that.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 10:23:12 am by MT Treasurer »Logged



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« Reply #60 on: December 05, 2018, 10:22:06 am »

I think you missed the point of the Racist Hick comments. I'm simply pointing out facts, not celebrating it. I supported Bredesen, Edmondson, Heitkamp, etc. MT Treasurer hates most red state Democrats but still tends to overestimate them, I guess to keep his expectations low because Republicans were burnt so many times in red states in the past. But it's pretty obvious at this point that things have changed considering the slaughterfest 2018 was for red state Democrats even in a D+9 Democratic wave.

I think you were the one that missed my point? I obviously know that you, as a fairly partisan Democrat, support these candidates. And I'm well aware that you believe that your "hicks" narrative is a fact. I'm simply saying it's not a fact. Let's not forget how you so adamantly denied the possibility of a Senator Doug Jones until the last moment.

Or Jim Justice/WV-GOV 2016, which was as "Safe R" as AL-SEN 2017 because of racist hicks.
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« Reply #61 on: December 05, 2018, 10:22:23 am »

Remember when MT Treasurer spent months and months telling us all that Heitkamp is favored and will easily win because of retail politics (TM).

Sorry to say MT Treasurer, but you aren't as intelligent as you think. You can write a lot of posts but that doesn't mean what you say will come true. Idk why you are still talking so confidently when ND and NH proved you massively wrong.

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« Reply #62 on: December 05, 2018, 10:23:02 am »

Only one of those people lost in a landslide though, which was exactly my point. As opposed to those three Democrats who just lost in a landslide in the deepest of blue states in a blue wave a month ago.

I thought you'd have gotten over your PTSD about red states electing Democrats after Bredesen, Heitkamp, and Edmondson got destroyed, Espy, McCaskill, Donnelly, Sutton, Hubbell, and Cordray got thumped, and Manchin and Tester had close calls and probably would've lost too if the GOP was more competent. And all this brutal carnage in the midst of a D+9 Democratic wave. Won't be satisfied until there's not a single red state Democrat left, huh? Tongue

Who cares by how much they lost, it’s totally irrelevant. The mere fact that these Democrats managed to win in Trump +40, Trump +28, Trump +20, etc. states despite "polarization being at a historic high" or whatever is telling in and of itself. McCaskill and Heitkamp are pretty bad examples because they were extremely weak and unpopular incumbents who ran godawful campaigns which essentially threw away two very winnable races, and if anything they should have lost by more than 11 and 5 points, respectively. Sutton certainly didn’t get "thumped", in fact I don’t remember the last time a Democrat came within 3 points of winning a gubernatorial race in SD (the state hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1974, the longest-running streak of GOP governors in the country). Espy getting "thumped" is also news to me (and most other posters, I would assume) since pretty much everyone except you would agree that he did a lot better than he should have done, and Hubbell literally only lost by 3%, lol. Donnelly's 5-point loss was a little more surprising, but let’s not forget that he actually did 13 points than his party's last presidential candidate. When was the last time a blue state Republican did that well? Yeah.. exactly. Any Republican incumbent in a Clinton +18 state would have been DOA and headed for a 12+ point loss from day one, even in a GOP wave.

Also, comparing Senate (Tester, Manchin, etc.) with gubernatorial races (Baker, Hogan, etc.) is a disingenuous and deliberately misleading apples to oranges comparison. Baker and Hogan would have lost by 25+ points if they had run for Senate in 2018 (or any other year, really), and you know it.

Maybe Atlas is right and Daines is really heavily favored and I know nothing about my state's politics, but given this forum's (poor) track record when it comes to predicting Montana elections I’ll happily stick with my prediction. Underestimate Bullock/MT Dems to your heart's content, Republicans, but don’t say you weren’t warned when the first poll of this race shows Bullock up by 8 points or something like that.

Couldnt have said it better myself. It seems that people on Atlas only see the Win/Lose, and derive a conclusion from that, instead of, you know, actually critically thinking about these races. Though as I said earlier, I personally stand on the "lean R" side, I can see the argument you are making for tossup/tilt D.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 10:26:18 am by Senator Zaybay »Logged

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« Reply #63 on: December 05, 2018, 10:25:54 am »

Only one of those people lost in a landslide though, which was exactly my point. As opposed to those three Democrats who just lost in a landslide in the deepest of blue states in a blue wave a month ago.

I thought you'd have gotten over your PTSD about red states electing Democrats after Bredesen, Heitkamp, and Edmondson got destroyed, Espy, McCaskill, Donnelly, Sutton, Hubbell, and Cordray got thumped, and Manchin and Tester had close calls and probably would've lost too if the GOP was more competent. And all this brutal carnage in the midst of a D+9 Democratic wave. Won't be satisfied until there's not a single red state Democrat left, huh? Tongue

Who cares by how much they lost, itís totally irrelevant. The mere fact that these Democrats managed to win in Trump +40, Trump +28, Trump +20, etc. states despite "polarization being at a historic high" or whatever is telling in and of itself. McCaskill and Heitkamp are pretty bad examples because they were extremely weak and unpopular incumbents who ran godawful campaigns which essentially threw away two very winnable races, and if anything they should have lost by more than 11 and 5 points, respectively. Sutton certainly didnít get "thumped", in fact I donít remember the last time a Democrat came within 3 points of winning a gubernatorial race in SD (the state hasnít elected a Democratic governor since 1974, the longest-running streak of GOP governors in the country). Espy getting "thumped" is also news to me (and most other posters, I would assume) since pretty much everyone except you would agree that he did a lot better than he should have done, and Hubbell literally only lost by 3%, lol. Donnelly's 5-point loss was a little more surprising, but letís not forget that he actually did 13 points than his party's last presidential candidate. When was the last time a blue state Republican did that well? Yeah.. exactly. Any Republican incumbent in a Clinton +18 state would have been DOA and headed for a 12+ point loss from day one, even in a GOP wave.

Also, comparing Senate (Tester, Manchin, etc.) with gubernatorial races (Baker, Hogan, etc.) is a disingenuous and deliberately misleading apples to oranges comparison. Baker and Hogan would have lost by 25+ points if they had run for Senate in 2018 (or any other year, really), and you know it.

Maybe Atlas is right and Daines is really heavily favored and I know nothing about my state's politics, but given this forum's (poor) track record when it comes to predicting Montana elections Iíll happily stick with my prediction. Underestimate Bullock/MT Dems to your heart's content, Republicans, but donít say you werenít warned when the first poll of this race shows Bullock up by 8 points or something like that.


Its clear Bullock makes it competetive but I can't remember the last time a president carried a state by double digits and an incumbent senator from the same party of the president
Ted stevens doesn't count as he was literally FOUND GUILTY of the charges. Polarization is just super high.


However what makes Bullock relatively popular in Montana. I don't get the populist feeling from him and more like a neoliberal generic white D feeling. For exampel Tester literally has ads about stupid haircuts which persuade the swing voters along with his 7 fingers. Brian Sweitzer literally vetoed bills with a veto brand. What is Bullocks #populist part?
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 10:32:13 am by lfromnj »Logged
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« Reply #64 on: December 05, 2018, 10:32:20 am »

Bullock is probably a stronger candidate than Bredesen was and is a more recent Governor, and MT is a more hospitable state than TN. But on the other hand, Daines is an incumbent and is a better candidate than Blackburn (and also better than Rosendale was).

Bullock has done well in the past in gubernatorial races, but those are a very different matter than Federal races and are much less polarized.

Bottom line - I won't believe, and nobody should believe, that Bullock has a serious chance of winning unless and until he is up in the polls by at least 5-10 points a month or two from election day at the earliest. By default, Daines should be considered the favorite barring very strong evidence that Bullock can win.
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« Reply #65 on: December 05, 2018, 10:38:22 am »

donít say you werenít warned when the first poll of this race shows Bullock up by 8 points or something like that.

That wouldn't really be all that surprising. The question is, though, what will the polls say a week before the election.
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« Reply #66 on: December 05, 2018, 10:40:54 am »



HAPPENING
did say for senate or president?
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« Reply #67 on: December 05, 2018, 10:42:19 am »



HAPPENING
did say for senate or president?
Senate, as I put this in the congressional forum.
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« Reply #68 on: December 05, 2018, 11:13:11 am »


This is a non-denial, he probably just didn't think he was on tape.
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« Reply #69 on: December 05, 2018, 11:16:00 am »


This is a non-denial, he probably just didn't think he was on tape.

That wouldn't make sense though? Even if wasn't caught on tape, the statement surely would have found a way to the news?
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« Reply #70 on: December 05, 2018, 11:16:31 am »

Maybe Atlas is right and Daines is really heavily favored and I know nothing about my state's politics, but given this forum's (poor) track record when it comes to predicting Montana elections Iíll happily stick with my prediction. Underestimate Bullock/MT Dems to your heart's content, Republicans, but donít say you werenít warned when the first poll of this race shows Bullock up by 8 points or something like that.



Iím far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If thereís a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. Thereís a lot of uncertainty in this race, and Iím certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, thereís no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they donít occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

Weíre talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just canít bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess weíll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.



Is your logic about Montana seriously any different than these arguments you made prior to Bredesen getting completely crushed on Election Day as Dems would go on to win the House vote by 8-9 points?

I donít know why youíre so unwilling to accept that polarization in senate races is a very real thing since you clearly got egg on your face about Heidiís retail politics and Brediís 39 point 2006 governor win.
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« Reply #71 on: December 05, 2018, 11:19:45 am »

Bullock has a good shot. I don't care what anyone says.
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2020 Senate Dream Team
CO- Neguse/Carroll
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MT- Bullock
KS- Barry Grissom
AZ- Ruben Gallego
ME- Jared Golden
NC- Jeff Jackson
GA- Sanford Bishop/Stacey Abrams(other should run for Senate/Gov 2022)
TX- Colin Allred
VA- Justin Fairfax
2020-
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« Reply #72 on: December 05, 2018, 11:37:06 am »

Guys, there's a big difference between running a Strickland or Bredesen and running Bullock. Bullock's the incumbent, likable, and popular Governor of the state who won reelection in a Presidential year. If Bullock runs, which seems pretty likely now, this race is a Tossup. 
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« Reply #73 on: December 05, 2018, 11:38:56 am »


This is a non-denial, he probably just didn't think he was on tape.

That wouldn't make sense though? Even if wasn't caught on tape, the statement surely would have found a way to the news?

I find it odd too, but the statement doesn't really deny what he's running, and sounds more like it was just intend to take cover off of Bullock from potential claims above political opportunism. I don't think Bullock wants focus on a Senate run this early.
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« Reply #74 on: December 05, 2018, 11:41:49 am »

Remember when MT Treasurer spent months and months telling us all that Heitkamp is favored and will easily win because of retail politics (TM).

Sorry to say MT Treasurer, but you aren't as intelligent as you think. You can write a lot of posts but that doesn't mean what you say will come true. Idk why you are still talking so confidently when ND and NH proved you massively wrong.

Projecting a little too much here, no? Judging from your posting history, I donít think youíre in the position to rebuke other posters for their rude, smug, and pretentious behavior, but I digress. Iím not talking "confidently" at all, all Iím saying is that it would be foolish to declare Bullock DOA, and if people ridicule me for my supposedly "delusional" Toss-up or Tilt D rating, I have the right to respond to that. The only ones talking "confidently" are the same people who told me that AL was Safe R, that WV-GOV was Safe R, that Hyde-Smith was going to easily win by double digits, etc. and are now saying that Bullock couldnít possibly beat Daines in 2020, that Jim Hood couldnít possibly win a gubernatorial race in MS because of "polarization" (which has essentially become a handy but ridiculously overused and nebulous buzzword), etc.

Yeah, youíre absolutely right, I was wrong about TN, ND (although I certainly wasnít the only one who overestimated Heitkamp, and in case you couldnít tell, many of my posts about ND-SEN were exaggerated, especially the retail politics part) and NH (2018 more so than 2016). Congrats! Iíll still readily admit that Iím conceited enough to believe that I know a little more about Montana than any other state, and at least my Bullock +3 (2016), Gianforte +6 (2017), and Tester +3 (2018) predictions werenít all that bad. I also never said that Bullock (assuming he runs, of course) will make this an automatic pick-up for Democrats, but Toss-up is definitely a fair rating and not one people should be ridiculed for. Like it or not, everyone's entitled to their own ratings and predictions, so if you donít like my posts, put me on ignore instead of making snarky posts like that.
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