MT-SEN 2020: Time for Bullock?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Bullock is probably a stronger candidate than Bredesen was and is a more recent Governor, and MT is a more hospitable state than TN. But on the other hand, Daines is an incumbent and is a better candidate than Blackburn (and also better than Rosendale was).

Bullock has done well in the past in gubernatorial races, but those are a very different matter than Federal races and are much less polarized.

Bottom line - I won't believe, and nobody should believe, that Bullock has a serious chance of winning unless and until he is up in the polls by at least 5-10 points a month or two from election day at the earliest. By default, Daines should be considered the favorite barring very strong evidence that Bullock can win.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

don’t say you weren’t warned when the first poll of this race shows Bullock up by 8 points or something like that.

That wouldn't really be all that surprising. The question is, though, what will the polls say a week before the election.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

In early 1976, nobody knew who Jimmy Carter was for example.

In early 1976, white people from southern states similar to Georgia were a big part of the base of the Democratic party.

In early 2020, white people from small rural states similar to Montana will not be a big part of the base of the Democratic party.