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Author Topic: Is Texas really turning blue?  (Read 3751 times)
Republican Left
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« on: December 05, 2018, 12:45:13 am »

Is Texas really going to become a blue state? If Texas turns blue doesn't that mean game over for any prospects for a Republican president (and killing conservatism in America, at least in the national sense), not to mention a lopsided House? Won't this mean one party rule for a generation?

Or will Texas (and other states in the South like Georgia and North Carolina) turn into another Florida or Ohio, ergo "battleground" Texas or purple?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2018, 01:06:43 am »

^ I will not make a long-term prediction, but in the next decade second variant sems much more likely to me.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 01:41:07 am by smoltchanov »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2018, 01:27:48 am »

Anything can happen in the long run.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2018, 03:46:21 am »

Anything can happen in the long run.
^ I will not make a long-term prediction, but in the next decade second variant sems much more likely to me.
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244197.0
Different states!
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2018, 07:19:29 pm »

Itís definitely going in a blue direction, but it may be a while before a Democrat wins outright.
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Bilbo Baggins
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« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2018, 08:44:44 pm »

I screenshot a lot of Election maps from Wiki starting from Election 2000.

Presidential Elections: 2000-2016






Senate Class 1: 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018





Senate Class 2: 2002, 2008, and 2014


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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2018, 08:46:04 pm »

I think it is definitely becoming less republican, I can see it moving from a R+10 state to a R+5 state, it probably is becoming a bit more like Florida but a few points more republican, a state where a democrat can win in a really good year but not otherwise. The issue for the GOP right now in Texas is unlike most other states, there are not a lot of voters outside the metro areas, in most states there are a lot of voters in small towns and cities which can give the GOP huge numbers of votes, the same dynamic doesn't exist in Texas. The top 5 counties alone cast 42% of all votes in Texas and all 5 seem to be trending democratic pretty hard and are also growing fast. The top 10 counties cast 57% of votes in 2016 and all 10 also shifted democratic in 2016.
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Bilbo Baggins
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2018, 08:50:49 pm »

Texas Gov Elections: 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018





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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2018, 09:55:52 am »

Not as much as it seems, because 2018 was in part built on borrowing voters who could easily flip back to the Republicans rather than on activating disengaged potential voters (although Beto did some of that too.)
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Jalaketu West
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2018, 10:32:46 am »

It's going down the same path as CA went down. The TX GOP will have good years again, and they'll still win some elections, but long-term things are going sharply downhill for them.
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2018, 10:40:07 am »

Texas Rurals are maxed out  unlike GA and NC rurals
Therefore once texas flips its gonna we Virginia style rather than NC style
It might have a brief GOP resurgurce but once it flips we will call it Safe D by maybe 2036.
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2018, 11:01:58 am »

I would not say Texas is turning blue like California. California whites are much different that Texas whites. But, I feel it's safe to say it's becoming highly competitive. Increased urbanization, as well as increased migration (it will gain 2, maybe 3 (!!) congressional seats after the 2020 census) to the state is changing the make-up of Texas to where it will be competitive statewide for the foreseeable future.

One reason North Carolina is still competitive despite having a low African-American population for a Southern state (21.5% as of the 2010 census), is due to a large population of highly educated and/or non-NC native whites (mostly from the Midwest or Northeast, particularly Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania). Texas has had an influx of new arrivals similar to those seen in NC in recent decades. These new Texans along with Hispanics, African-Americans, and highly educated native Texans will ensure Texas will at least be a competitive state for many years to come.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2018, 11:54:49 am »

I would say it's undeniably moving left.  The only question is will our current party system/trends continue long enough for Texas to become a "solid blue" state.  I think Texas will eventually max out as a Lean D state, ala Colorado right now, before something happens over the next 30-40 years to shake things up.  So, my answer depends on what you mean by "turned blue."
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2018, 06:42:33 pm »

I've been saying for a while that Texas is going to become the next Florida: a Lean R swing state. It's not there yet, but I also don't think it's going to end up more Dem than the national average for a long time. But that said, even being a winnable swing state is a catastrophe for the GOP. They'll have to play defense on very expensive turf.
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2018, 08:05:09 pm »

I've been saying for a while that Texas is going to become the next Florida: a Lean R swing state. It's not there yet, but I also don't think it's going to end up more Dem than the national average for a long time. But that said, even being a winnable swing state is a catastrophe for the GOP. They'll have to play defense on very expensive turf.
Florida has retiree reinforcements. Texas has moderate right california gop fleeing and then becoming democrats in austin
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2018, 08:43:54 pm »

Texas Rurals are maxed out  unlike GA and NC rurals
Therefore once texas flips its gonna we Virginia style rather than NC style
It might have a brief GOP resurgurce but once it flips we will call it Safe D by maybe 2036.

Virginia even in the 90s was no where near as Republican as Texas is now (or was before this year)


Also if Texas Flips to becoming what VA is the GOP will be a different party in 8-12 years as they would be locked out of the WH without it


« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 08:49:14 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2018, 08:44:48 pm »

It's going down the same path as CA went down. The TX GOP will have good years again, and they'll still win some elections, but long-term things are going sharply downhill for them.

CA even in the peak of Conservativism there (I would say 1986) was no where near as Republican as Texas has been
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« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2018, 08:50:38 pm »

Texas Rurals are maxed out  unlike GA and NC rurals
Therefore once texas flips its gonna we Virginia style rather than NC style
It might have a brief GOP resurgurce but once it flips we will call it Safe D by maybe 2036.

Virginia even in the 90s was no where near as Republican as Texas is now (or was before this year)


Also if Texas Flips to becoming what VA is the GOP will be a different party in 8-12 years as they would be locked out of the WH without it



I mean the GOP can still win florida
Also mn maine and a few other states
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« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2018, 08:56:13 pm »

Texas Rurals are maxed out  unlike GA and NC rurals
Therefore once texas flips its gonna we Virginia style rather than NC style
It might have a brief GOP resurgurce but once it flips we will call it Safe D by maybe 2036.

Virginia even in the 90s was no where near as Republican as Texas is now (or was before this year)


Also if Texas Flips to becoming what VA is the GOP will be a different party in 8-12 years as they would be locked out of the WH without it



I mean the GOP can still win florida
Also mn maine and a few other states


Well if they lose Texas , Arizona is gone as well and this is how the map would like in that case (Give Trump NH , MM , and ME)





Trump still wins 275-263


But after redistricting thatís will no longer be a winning map
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« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2018, 09:45:45 pm »

Texas Rurals are maxed out  unlike GA and NC rurals
Therefore once texas flips its gonna we Virginia style rather than NC style
It might have a brief GOP resurgurce but once it flips we will call it Safe D by maybe 2036.

Virginia even in the 90s was no where near as Republican as Texas is now (or was before this year)


Also if Texas Flips to becoming what VA is the GOP will be a different party in 8-12 years as they would be locked out of the WH without it



I mean the GOP can still win florida
Also mn maine and a few other states


Well if they lose Texas , Arizona is gone as well and this is how the map would like in that case (Give Trump NH , MM , and ME)





Trump still wins 275-263


But after redistricting thatís will no longer be a winning map
Ooh!!! ^^That'll *probably* be the go to 269-269 map of the late 2020s.
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« Reply #20 on: December 06, 2018, 09:50:52 pm »

Texas Rurals are maxed out  unlike GA and NC rurals
Therefore once texas flips its gonna we Virginia style rather than NC style
It might have a brief GOP resurgurce but once it flips we will call it Safe D by maybe 2036.

Virginia even in the 90s was no where near as Republican as Texas is now (or was before this year)


Also if Texas Flips to becoming what VA is the GOP will be a different party in 8-12 years as they would be locked out of the WH without it



I mean the GOP can still win florida
Also mn maine and a few other states


Well if they lose Texas , Arizona is gone as well and this is how the map would like in that case (Give Trump NH , MM , and ME)





Trump still wins 275-263


But after redistricting thatís will no longer be a winning map
Ooh!!! ^^That'll *probably* be the go to 269-269 map of the late 2020s.

Yah so if Texas goes Dem , there will be a major realignment which will shift the map up completely
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« Reply #21 on: December 06, 2018, 09:56:29 pm »

yeah its really tough to see the GOP winning without texas. I think it will remain swing for a while but they need to do something else. On the other hand a trend D in Texas is great for the GOP because it gives them even a better advantage in the senate relative to the nation.
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« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2018, 09:44:15 am »

I don't see Texas turning blue since a lot of the recent trend has to do with well educated suburban voters swinging to the Dems. These people might swing right back under a Dem president. That being said, it is becoming a purple state and if the GOP becomes the party of Trump in the long-term, Texas will turn blue. If they focus more on fiscal conservatism, Texas will still vote for them.
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Republican Left
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« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2018, 09:57:10 am »

yeah its really tough to see the GOP winning without texas. I think it will remain swing for a while but they need to do something else. On the other hand a trend D in Texas is great for the GOP because it gives them even a better advantage in the senate relative to the nation.

Does this mean a Democrat President for an entire generation or dare I say single-party rule for 50 to 100? If Texas swings blue, is this the death kneel for the GOP and American Conservatism as we know it?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2018, 10:04:56 am »

yeah its really tough to see the GOP winning without texas. I think it will remain swing for a while but they need to do something else. On the other hand a trend D in Texas is great for the GOP because it gives them even a better advantage in the senate relative to the nation.

Does this mean a Democrat President for an entire generation or dare I say single-party rule for 50 to 100? If Texas swings blue, is this the death kneel for the GOP and American Conservatism as we know it?

It could mean 4 straight D terms but the GOP should adjust after the next recession.. Also the senate is still winnable for the GOP thx to the small state advantage.
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