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  Scuto's fair redistricting
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Author Topic: Scuto's fair redistricting  (Read 534 times)
scutosaurus
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« on: December 30, 2018, 04:16:34 pm »

Hey y'all, I've been working on a series of fair redistricting plans for each state and I'm going to use this thread to keep them all in order. I'm not using any specific definition for what constitutes a "fair" district, but ideally communities of interest (counties, cities, metro areas) are kept together and districts have at least some degree of compactness. Alabama first:

Img


District 1
PVI: R+16.39
2016 result: T 64.19, C 32.55, O 3.26
Incumbent: Bradley Byrne (R)

This Mobile-based district, which voted for Donald Trump by a margin of over 30 points and narrowly voted for Roy Moore, is Safe R in every way. All counties are kept whole.

District 2
PVI: R+18.18
2016 result: T 66.37, C 30.41, O 3.22
Incumbent: Martha Roby (R)

Martha Roby's home is shifted out of this district and into the 7th, as it now contains Lee County rather than parts of Montgomery. Nonetheless, this Safe R district should be easy for her to run in.

District 3
PVI: R+27.51
2016 result: T 75.10, C 22.18, O 2.72
Incumbent: Mike Rogers (R)

By shifting to the west and taking on conservative Birmingham exurbs in Blount and Shelby counties, the 3rd becomes one of the most conservative districts in the entire country.

District 4
PVI: R+31.83
2016 result: T 81.37, C 15.86, O 2.76
Incumbent: Robert Aderholt (R)

The 4th district remains largely unchanged from its current iteration, slightly shifting even further to the right. It is the only district in the entire Deep South in which Trump received over 80% of the vote.

District 5
PVI: R+16.78
2016 result: T 62.97, C 31.62, O 5.41
Incumbent: Mo Brooks (R)

The closest of the Republican districts in Alabama, although that's not saying much. Doug Jones did narrowly manage to win this Huntsville-based district against Roy Moore, however.

District 6
PVI: D+0.54
2016 result: C 50.23, T 45.63, O 4.13
Incumbent: Gary Palmer (R)

In the biggest change from the current map, District 6 becomes nearly entirely contained within Jefferson County, while also containing a few Hoover precincts in Shelby County. Despite its very close PVI, it is shifting towards Democrats, and Hillary Clinton won it by almost 5 points.

District 7
PVI: D+6.41
2016 result: C 55.14, T 42.41, O 2.45
Incumbent: Terri Sewell (D)

The 7th district becomes significantly less safe than its current form, although Hillary Clinton still won it by almost 13 points. Its BVAP is a 48.2% plurality, while its total population is 50.9% black. There's no reason to believe that Terri Sewell or another black Democrat wouldn't cruise to victory here.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2018, 08:34:46 pm »

how are you getting the individual Clinton vs Trump numbers?
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2018, 09:06:55 pm »

Here's my Georgia map, with an added Atlanta-area inset. This is the map that I spent the longest time working on, and I'm pretty happy with it. It would usually produce a delegation consisting of 5 Democrats and 7 Republicans, with 2 tossup seats.

Img


District 1
PVI: R+9.08
2016 result: T 56.73, C 40.51, O 2.76
Incumbent: Buddy Carter (R)

This district, based in Savannah, is rather similar to its current incarnation - a solidly Republican seat, but not overwhelmingly so. Not really much to say here.

District 2
PVI: D+4.11
2016 result: C 53.20, T 44.86, O 1.94
Incumbent: Sanford Bishop (D)

This district retains a total black plurality of 48.6%, but actually has a plurality white VAP. I believe that a majority BVAP is not actually required in the 2nd district by the VRA, so I decided to sacrifice it in favor of placing Worth County into the district to keep the Albany metro area intact. As a result, it becomes closer both in PVI and 2016 result - Hillary Clinton only won it by about 8 points.

District 3
PVI: R+22.64
2016 result: T 69.27, C 27.70, O 3.03
Incumbent: Drew Ferguson (R)

The new 3rd district spans a large portion of land across the GA-AL border, consisting of Atlanta exurbs and outer cities including Rome and LaGrange. I will say that the split of both Floyd County and the city of Rome is not something which I'm happy with, but I believe that it's necessary to preserve relative population equality.

District 4
PVI: D+26.13
2016 result: C 76.65, T 20.89, O 2.46
Incumbent: Hank Johnson (D)

The new 4th district swaps out Newton and Rockdale counties for more of now heavily Democratic Gwinnett County. It still has a solid black majority in both BVAP and total population.

District 5
PVI: D+32.47
2016 result: C 82.87, T 14.41, O 2.72
Incumbent: John Lewis (D)

One of the most heavily Democratic districts in the country, with a heavy black population of over 60%. Most of the City of Atlanta is included within the district, as well as some southern suburbs including the airport.

District 6
PVI: R+2.22
2016 result: C 52.67, T 42.52, O 4.81
Incumbent: Lucy McBath (D)

My home district, and ground zero for socially liberal fiscally conservative suburban voters. John McCain won it by just 225 votes in 2008, and Hillary Clinton won it by over 10 points. Lucy McBath doesn't actually live in the new 6th, but Jon Ossoff does, and he almost certainly would have won in 2017.

District 7
PVI: R+14.40
2016 result: T 56.92, C 38.93, O 4.15
Incumbent: Rob Woodall (R)

The new 7th is still trending Democratic, but at a much slower rate. The conservative bastion of Forsyth County rests entirely within the district, as do several Hall County precincts on the shores of Lake Lanier. I suspect that Rob Woodall would be quite happy with this map.

District 8
PVI: R+17.77
2016 result: T 65.98, C 31.80, O 2.22
Incumbent: Austin Scott (R)

A bit of an "everything else" district, with a focus on the Macon metro area. It's even more Republican than its current version, although Austin Scott's home is drawn into the 12th district.

District 9
PVI: R+31.90
2016 result: T 78.46, C 18.61, O 2.93
Incumbent: Doug Collins (R)

Just like its current incarnation, the 9th remains the most Republican district in Georgia, consisting of both northern mountains and staunchly conservative Atlanta exurbs.
 
District 10
PVI: R+2.12
2016 result: T 49.20, C 47.86, O 2.94
Incumbent: Jody Hice (R)

A true swing district which Trump only won by 1 point, consisting of the entire Augusta and Athens metro areas as well as some heavily black counties in between. Incumbent Rep. Jody Hice actually lives in the neighboring 9th district, but I think that under these lines John Barrow would never have lost.

District 11
PVI: R+4.13
2016 result: C 48.89, T 46.69, O 4.42
Incumbent: Barry Loudermilk (R)

The 11th becomes wholly contiguous with Cobb County under this plan, drawing Barry Loudermilk out but drawing Lucy McBath in. Although Cobb was solidly Republican for a long time, it narrowly voted for Clinton and voted for Abrams by almost double digits. It's unlikely that a Republican would still hold this seat after 2018.

District 12
PVI: R+16.63
2016 result: T 65.93, C 32.12, O 1.95
Incumbent: Rick Allen (R)

The 12th transforms into a sprawling South Georgia-based district, spanning 30 counties between Valdosta and Statesboro. It also becomes very, very Republican.

District 13
PVI: D+11.68
2016 result: C 62.85, T 34.88, O 2.26
Incumbent: David Scott (D)

The 13th keeps a black plurality in both VAP and total population, despite losing all of its territory in Fulton and Cobb counties in exchange for rapidly developing southern exurbs. It's still very solidly Democratic, voting for Hillary Clinton by 28 percentage points.

District 14
PVI: R+28.20
2016 result: T 74.46, C 21.97, O 3.57
Incumbent: Tom Graves (R)

The Dalton-based 14th district remains as Republican as ever. Perhaps Barry Loudermilk, who lives in Bartow County, would choose to run here?
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2018, 09:07:28 pm »

how are you getting the individual Clinton vs Trump numbers?

Lots of math. I'm adding up the numbers in each county as well as going into the precinct results when counties are split.
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2019, 12:19:59 am »

Bump. More please. Very interesting!

I'm also going to add my one pet observation about drawing District Maps. I think even those who agree that the whole packing and cracking strategy of gerrymandering is bad still Focus too much on keeping County and municipality lines intact for the sake of doing so. In doing so, this often still keeps the packing part of packing and cracking gerrymanders.
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2019, 12:26:40 am »

Bump. More please. Very interesting!

I'm also going to add my one pet observation about drawing District Maps. I think even those who agree that the whole packing and cracking strategy of gerrymandering is bad still Focus too much on keeping County and municipality lines intact for the sake of doing so. In doing so, this often still keeps the packing part of packing and cracking gerrymanders.

Counties and municipalities are real-world entities that should be kept whole to the greatest extent possible. They are communities of interest that should not be ignored. Outside of the VRA or as is necessary for population, there's no real reason to split a county or town.

Not only that, keeping counties and municipalities whole limits the shenanigans that can otherwise be played. Mathematical tests are much more easily gamed.
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badger
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2019, 12:43:10 am »

Bump. More please. Very interesting!

I'm also going to add my one pet observation about drawing District Maps. I think even those who agree that the whole packing and cracking strategy of gerrymandering is bad still Focus too much on keeping County and municipality lines intact for the sake of doing so. In doing so, this often still keeps the packing part of packing and cracking gerrymanders.

Counties and municipalities are real-world entities that should be kept whole to the greatest extent possible. They are communities of interest that should not be ignored. Outside of the VRA or as is necessary for population, there's no real reason to split a county or town.

Not only that, keeping counties and municipalities whole limits the shenanigans that can otherwise be played. Mathematical tests are much more easily gamed.

Not necessarily. Yes Shenanigans can be done by ignoring the lines willy-nilly, but so can packing bite treating County and municipality lines is near sacrosanct. Just to give one example I mentioned on another thread the other day, I'm familiar with the Columbus suburb of Pickerington. It is in Fairfield County right on the border of Franklin. However, it's culture, Outlook, in general mindset has much more to do with Columbus then it does Lancaster or the rest of Fairfield County. Attaching Violet Township as part of a Southeastern Franklin County state senate or house seat would do much more to keep common communities of Interest together than attaching it to Lancaster because it happens to be the county seat 20 ish miles down the highway. Ditto for Powell in Delaware County being much more part of the Columbus Northwest suburbs community rather than having as much to do with the city of Delaware. I believe Powell and Delaware have something more of a connection than Lancaster and Pickerington, but that isn't saying all that much.
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