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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Is Texas really turning blue? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Texas really turning blue?  (Read 4047 times)
Comstock V: Roman Holiday
hummus_con_pita
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Israel


« on: December 09, 2018, 11:23:04 pm »

No...its being turned off by Trump. I don't trust that suburbanites will vote for Democrats as they continue moving left once Trump is out of the picture. If the election was Nikki Haley VS Bernie Sanders, are we really supposed to expect that Dallas and Fort Worth and Fort Bend and Williamson counties would vote D?

They wouldn't, they'd deliver a Bush level victory...let's also remember Bush won the governorship by only 8 the first time, then by 30.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the cat's out of the bag. The damage Trump has done to suburbs is showing to hold up – hence the strong down-ballot performance this year. Neither Allred nor Fletcher nor Beto even really ran as conciliatory moderates, and Sessions/Culberson/Cruz weren't unapologetic Trumpists. And, as mentioned earlier in this thread, there's not much room to grow in rural areas.

Nikki Haley isn't winning a Republican presidential primary... ever. Even before Trump, but now especially. And those kinds of hypotheticals don't really prove that Texas isn't trending D. It's kinda like saying "Iowa isn't trending R... if the election was Sherrod Brown VS Tom Cotton, do we really expect such-and-so voters in Hicksville County to vote R?"
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Comstock V: Roman Holiday
hummus_con_pita
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 858
Israel


« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2018, 02:54:09 pm »

[...]

Excellent analysis. Additionally, a lot of the northern metroplex seats are severely overpopulated and shifting quickly;


Img


TX-03 (my district) has more than 850,000 people.

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TX-24 (Marchant) has more than 800,000.


Img


TX-26 (Burgess) has more than 850,000.


These districts are now overpopulated compared to others, and the fact that Texas is poised to gain 3 seats means that even if Republicans try to draw 3 sinks in DFW (Johnson, Veasey, and Allred) they’d still remain very vulnerable in the other DFW districts - it’ll mean to be safe they’ll have to sacrifice at least one more semi-sink district and that’ll likely not even be enough for the decade.
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