Is Texas really turning blue?

[Storr]

I would not say Texas is turning blue like California. California whites are much different that Texas whites. But, I feel it's safe to say it's becoming highly competitive. Increased urbanization, as well as increased migration (it will gain 2, maybe 3 (!!) congressional seats after the 2020 census) to the state is changing the make-up of Texas to where it will be competitive statewide for the foreseeable future.

One reason North Carolina is still competitive despite having a low African-American population for a Southern state (21.5% as of the 2010 census), is due to a large population of highly educated and/or non-NC native whites (mostly from the Midwest or Northeast, particularly Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania). Texas has had an influx of new arrivals similar to those seen in NC in recent decades. These new Texans along with Hispanics, African-Americans, and highly educated native Texans will ensure Texas will at least be a competitive state for many years to come.