MD Gov 2022

[Bidenworth2020]

https://wtop.com/maryland/2018/11/the-early-line-on-marylands-political-landscape-in-2022/

Who do Dems pick, and could reps snatch it if Hogan remains popular?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

My prior is that no matter what it's going to be an uphill fight for Republicans. No matter how popular Hogan is if he's not on the ballot, it's up to a new Republican (even Boyd Rutherford) to win over Democrats. There's already underlying pressure from an eight year itch, incredibly strong anti-Republican sentiment in the state, plus who knows what the state of the National Republican party will be in 2022. It's worth noting that Hogan already won because of the perfect storm in 2014: horrible non-incumbent candidate, plus nationwide R-wave, plus low turnout. Those things are unlikely to happen again in 2022, even I think if a Dem wins the Presidency.

[Bidenworth2020]

My prior is that no matter what it's going to be an uphill fight for Republicans. No matter how popular Hogan is if he's not on the ballot, it's up to a new Republican (even Boyd Rutherford) to win over Democrats. There's already underlying pressure from an eight year itch, incredibly strong anti-Republican sentiment in the state, plus who knows what the state of the National Republican party will be in 2022. It's worth noting that Hogan already won because of the perfect storm in 2014: horrible non-incumbent candidate, plus nationwide R-wave, plus low turnout. Those things are unlikely to happen again in 2022, even I think if a Dem wins the Presidency.

I hold a similar view. The only way I see this being competitive is if Jealous wins the nomination again.

[Timothy87]

Honestly it's way to early to say. If Trump is still president, then solid D. If a Dem is president, then it'll depend on the national mood, and the quality of the candidates. Allan Kittleman would be my ideal next Republican nominee but not sure if he can win the primary

[History505]

Extremely early to even know anything.

[scutosaurus]

Republicans should nominate Matt Rosendale.

[Bidenworth2020]

Honestly it's way to early to say. If Trump is still president, then solid D. If a Dem is president, then it'll depend on the national mood, and the quality of the candidates. Allan Kittleman would be my ideal next Republican nominee but not sure if he can win the primary

Do you think Hogan remains popular?

[President Biden Democrat]

It's really far away but I think Hogan would win again if he would run. If he doesn't run the Democrats would win the seat.

[Skye]

Let's not forget how much of a surprise was Hogan's 2014 win. It also happened in the middle of a perfect environment for him.

If it's a second Trump midterm, it's probably Safe D. If it's a D President midterm, probably Likely D.

[History505]

It's really far away but I think Hogan would win again if he would run. If he doesn't run the Democrats would win the seat.

Hogan is term-limited in 2022.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Trump is President in 2022, even Anthony Brown would win lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rashurn Baker, hopefully. He should try again

[IceSpear]

Republicans should nominate Matt Rosendale.

[lfromnj]

Republicans should nominate Matt Rosendale.

Rosendale Mooney ticket

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, it'll go D in 2022, but if Hogan remains popular and successful, I could see Maryland being like other northeastern states and electing more GOP governors further down the road. Is it possible that Hogan runs for president in 2024?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt he beats a Dem incumbent in 2024, since the country wont have deficits, since tax cuts will be rescinded. Then, Dems can build the wall and cut Social Security for the rich
 

[Zaybay]

Yeah, it'll go D in 2022, but if Hogan remains popular and successful, I could see Maryland being like other northeastern states and electing more GOP governors further down the road. Is it possible that Hogan runs for president in 2024?

The problem with that is twofold. The MDGOP, as well as other Northern parties such as the MAGOP, MEGOP, and VTGOP have become more and more trumpified as time goes on, with Baker and Scott only getting by their "easy" primary with 65% of the vote, and CT pushing for a Trumpian candidate for governor. It will be harder to win over the New England Is and Ds with candidates like that.

The other problem is how decimated Rs were in the state. Hogan was suppose to carry some people over the finish line, break the supermajority, etc. But instead, the party was completely destroyed downballot. It will be harder to find a qualified, A+ candidate without a bench.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, it'll go D in 2022, but if Hogan remains popular and successful, I could see Maryland being like other northeastern states and electing more GOP governors further down the road. Is it possible that Hogan runs for president in 2024?

The problem with that is twofold. The MDGOP, as well as other Northern parties such as the MAGOP, MEGOP, and VTGOP have become more and more trumpified as time goes on, with Baker and Scott only getting by their "easy" primary with 65% of the vote, and CT pushing for a Trumpian candidate for governor. It will be harder to win over the New England Is and Ds with candidates like that.

The other problem is how decimated Rs were in the state. Hogan was suppose to carry some people over the finish line, break the supermajority, etc. But instead, the party was completely destroyed downballot. It will be harder to find a qualified, A+ candidate without a bench.

One more rare case where i completely agree. Sadly. Because, as i said many times, one-party dominance is always bad. Hence why i am absolutely rooting for Democrats in present day South, and very frequently - for Republicans in New England..

[Mr.Phips]

My prior is that no matter what it's going to be an uphill fight for Republicans. No matter how popular Hogan is if he's not on the ballot, it's up to a new Republican (even Boyd Rutherford) to win over Democrats. There's already underlying pressure from an eight year itch, incredibly strong anti-Republican sentiment in the state, plus who knows what the state of the National Republican party will be in 2022. It's worth noting that Hogan already won because of the perfect storm in 2014: horrible non-incumbent candidate, plus nationwide R-wave, plus low turnout. Those things are unlikely to happen again in 2022, even I think if a Dem wins the Presidency.

How many voters even know who Rutherford is?  It's not like the voters separately elect the Lt. Governor like in Georgia and Nevada.

[LastMcGovernite]

To return to the question at hand, I think Tom Perez will probably run in 2022. He probably would have earlier if he wasn't DNC chair.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tom Perez wouldnt run for Gov, he would likely be a lobbyist, Rashurn Baker should try again

[PragmaticPopulist]

Honestly it's way to early to say. If Trump is still president, then solid D. If a Dem is president, then it'll depend on the national mood, and the quality of the candidates. Allan Kittleman would be my ideal next Republican nominee but not sure if he can win the primary

I doubt Kittleman will gain much traction. Aside from him probably being too moderate for the Republican primary electorate, he's been tainted by his reelection loss.

[Timothy87]

Honestly it's way to early to say. If Trump is still president, then solid D. If a Dem is president, then it'll depend on the national mood, and the quality of the candidates. Allan Kittleman would be my ideal next Republican nominee but not sure if he can win the primary

I doubt Kittleman will gain much traction. Aside from him probably being too moderate for the Republican primary electorate, he's been tainted by his reelection loss.

I don't disagree, just saying that he is my preference cuz he's my kind of Republican. The depressing thing is that I don't believe that Hogan could have won the R primary in the era of Trump (he won the 2014 primary a year before Trump announced).

Dems have quite a bench of candidates now with all the county execs.

As for the question if Hogan will still be popular in 4 years.. who knows. 2 term execs tend to lose steam but I think it'll party be the result of broader political winds

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully politicalmasta will actually vote for the dem in 2022.

[Timothy87]

Republicans should nominate Matt Rosendale.

Y'all are ridiculous with this "Matt Rosendale is a Marylander" attack. The only reason Montana is growing as it is, is because of transplants. He's hardly alone in relocating to a western state. He was elected to the Montana legislature in 2010, and to a statewide office in 2016. He's now a Montanan.... contrast that with Hillary Rodham Clinton, who decided she was suddenly a New Yorker 5 minutes before running for Senate so she could find relevance after the White House.