Will the rural areas of Dane County eventually trend Republican?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Most of the rural areas of Dane County in WI have managed to stay blue as rural WI continues to shift towards the GOP.

[Zaybay]

I mean, I guess it kinda depends. Some of the Dane rural areas act more like closely integrated suburbs than rurals, basically being an extension of the city. These areas are unlikely to trend R, and may trend more D, in fact. But if rurals continue to trend R, we would see the the driftless, any part not near Dane, go R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably not.

[Nyvin]

Education levels most likely.

[lfromnj]

No they will either be swept up by the urban core or stay like vermont .

[Del Tachi]

I mean, I guess it kinda depends. Some of the Dane rural areas act more like closely integrated suburbs than rurals, basically being an extension of the city. These areas are unlikely to trend R, and may trend more D, in fact. But if rurals continue to trend R, we would see the the driftless, any part not near Dane, go R.

This.  The rural areas of Orange County, NC (Chapel Hill) act the same way.

[nclib]

I mean, I guess it kinda depends. Some of the Dane rural areas act more like closely integrated suburbs than rurals, basically being an extension of the city. These areas are unlikely to trend R, and may trend more D, in fact. But if rurals continue to trend R, we would see the the driftless, any part not near Dane, go R.

This.  The rural areas of Orange County, NC (Chapel Hill) act the same way.

Here in Orange County, NC, the rural areas at the other end of the county are pretty conservative (though right outside the city boundaries is liberal), but that is lessening as that area becomes more suburban. Also, Chatham County has a good amount of spillover from Chapel Hill, and that part leans Democratic/liberal. For example, Chatham voted against the marriage amendment even as Guilford and Forsyth voted for.

[Adam Griffin]

In not knowing much about the area, I imagine people living in these rural areas of college towns and/or deep-blue clusters are those who share the beliefs of their fellow county-dwellers, but simply prefer rural life as a whole. As such, probably not.

[RINO Tom]

In not knowing much about the area, I imagine people living in these rural areas of college towns and/or deep-blue clusters are those who share the beliefs of their fellow county-dwellers, but simply prefer rural life as a whole. As such, probably not.

Depends, I'd say.  Johnson County, IA (my current residence) has a fairly conservative rural presence, though it's obviously much to the left of most rural areas in the state.

[Bidenworth2020]

In not knowing much about the area, I imagine people living in these rural areas of college towns and/or deep-blue clusters are those who share the beliefs of their fellow county-dwellers, but simply prefer rural life as a whole. As such, probably not.

Depends, I'd say.  Johnson County, IA (my current residence) has a fairly conservative rural presence, though it's obviously much to the left of most rural areas in the state.

really? Hubbell destroyed Reynolds there 71-27

[Tartarus Sauce]

They already have trended Republican. Trump won Dane and Vienna and cracked 40% in most of the rural towns. The real question is how long the rural portions of Dane County can actually stay rural considering the growth rates there.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I mean, I guess it kinda depends. Some of the Dane rural areas act more like closely integrated suburbs than rurals, basically being an extension of the city. These areas are unlikely to trend R, and may trend more D, in fact. But if rurals continue to trend R, we would see the the driftless, any part not near Dane, go R.

Makes sense. Thanks everyone!

They already have trended Republican. Trump won Dane and Vienna and cracked 40% in most of the rural towns. The real question is how long the rural portions of Dane County can actually stay rural considering the growth rates there.

Actually most of the Dane rurals have trended D. Bush won Medina, Bristol, York, and Windsor by 50%, all of which Obama and Hillary won. Also, Tony Evers won Vienna, and Trump didn't even crack 50% there.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I mean, I guess it kinda depends. Some of the Dane rural areas act more like closely integrated suburbs than rurals, basically being an extension of the city. These areas are unlikely to trend R, and may trend more D, in fact. But if rurals continue to trend R, we would see the the driftless, any part not near Dane, go R.

Makes sense. Thanks everyone!

They already have trended Republican. Trump won Dane and Vienna and cracked 40% in most of the rural towns. The real question is how long the rural portions of Dane County can actually stay rural considering the growth rates there.

Actually most of the Dane rurals have trended D. Bush won Medina, Bristol, York, and Windsor by 50%, all of which Obama and Hillary won. Also, Tony Evers won Vienna, and Trump didn't even crack 50% there.

Then I guess it depends on what years you set as the parameters for comparison.

[RINO Tom]

In not knowing much about the area, I imagine people living in these rural areas of college towns and/or deep-blue clusters are those who share the beliefs of their fellow county-dwellers, but simply prefer rural life as a whole. As such, probably not.

Depends, I'd say.  Johnson County, IA (my current residence) has a fairly conservative rural presence, though it's obviously much to the left of most rural areas in the state.

really? Hubbell destroyed Reynolds there 71-27

Was just going by that 2016 precinct map (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#11.00/41.824/-91.541).  While rural Johnson County is SO much more liberal than your average rural area, the outer areas are lean GOP.  For example, the area around Lake Macbride in Solon went for Trump 49-45% ... then again, this isn't your classic rural area.

[TJ in Oregon]

Well, here'e the trend map from this site for 2012-2016:



It would seem that, for the most part, they are already trending Republican. As would be expected, the exceptions are mostly the areas that are suburbanizing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, here'e the trend map from this site for 2012-2016:



It would seem that, for the most part, they are already trending Republican. As would be expected, the exceptions are mostly the areas that are suburbanizing.

I f**king hate this era of politics.

[Intell]

Well, here'e the trend map from this site for 2012-2016:



It would seem that, for the most part, they are already trending Republican. As would be expected, the exceptions are mostly the areas that are suburbanizing.

I f**king hate this era of politics.

I mean the problem isn't rural areas trending Republican, it's working class, poor industrial areas trending republican areas.

There are many rural areas that were always republican due to self intrest, low cost of living etc.

[RINO Tom]

Well, here'e the trend map from this site for 2012-2016:



It would seem that, for the most part, they are already trending Republican. As would be expected, the exceptions are mostly the areas that are suburbanizing.

I f**king hate this era of politics.

I mean the problem isn't rural areas trending Republican, it's working class, poor industrial areas trending republican areas.

There are many rural areas that were always republican due to self intrest, low cost of living etc.

Exactly ... if you had no past knowledge of politics and read some of the posts you see on this forum, you would think Mitt Romney lost in 2012 with an identical map to Hillary Clinton, LOL.

[Zaybay]

Well, here'e the trend map from this site for 2012-2016:



It would seem that, for the most part, they are already trending Republican. As would be expected, the exceptions are mostly the areas that are suburbanizing.

I f**king hate this era of politics.

I mean the problem isn't rural areas trending Republican, it's working class, poor industrial areas trending republican areas.

There are many rural areas that were always republican due to self intrest, low cost of living etc.

Eh, its not that either, for in 2018, we saw major swings in Erie county, South Eastern IA, the Duluth area, Kenshoa WI, etc.

Where the trend appears to be is in Appalachia, specifically. It was the only rural area to swing less than the national swing. Most rurals did not behave this way, and swung more than the national swing compared to 2016. Of course, considering how low Democrats were in 2016, its a bit hard to notice when MO-03 swings almost 19 points Democrat. This isnt to say that the Ds will suddenly rebound in the Rurals and we will see a Democratic MT, but it is worthy of pointing out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The best political alignments are those where the urban/rural divide plays no role in shaping voting patterns one way or the other. So having both rural left, rural right, urban left and urban right areas (like, say, France until recently) would be ideal. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The best political alignments are those where the urban/rural divide plays no role in shaping voting patterns one way or the other. So having both rural left, rural right, urban left and urban right areas (like, say, France until recently) would be ideal. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed.

That has never been the case in the US.

[Intell]

The best political alignments are those where the urban/rural divide plays no role in shaping voting patterns one way or the other. So having both rural left, rural right, urban left and urban right areas (like, say, France until recently) would be ideal. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed.

That has never been the case in the US.

Nor in any country of the Anglosphere. The rural areas that were left-wing were small industrial tows, pit villages etc.

[Tintrlvr]

The best political alignments are those where the urban/rural divide plays no role in shaping voting patterns one way or the other. So having both rural left, rural right, urban left and urban right areas (like, say, France until recently) would be ideal. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed.

That has never been the case in the US.

Nor in any country of the Anglosphere. The rural areas that were left-wing were small industrial tows, pit villages etc.

I guess there's a bit of question of how one defines "left-wing", but certainly plenty of rural English (let alone Scottish or Welsh) areas that are not industrial/mining communities had, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, nonconforming, anti-clerical and anti-establishment traditions. Far more Liberal than Labour, of course, but the Liberals were "the left" of the 19th century.

And the U.S. has Vermont.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Well, here'e the trend map from this site for 2012-2016:



It would seem that, for the most part, they are already trending Republican. As would be expected, the exceptions are mostly the areas that are suburbanizing.

Luckily, Dane continues to get bigger and bluer despite some of its rurals trending R!

[Intell]

The best political alignments are those where the urban/rural divide plays no role in shaping voting patterns one way or the other. So having both rural left, rural right, urban left and urban right areas (like, say, France until recently) would be ideal. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed.

That has never been the case in the US.

Nor in any country of the Anglosphere. The rural areas that were left-wing were small industrial tows, pit villages etc.

I guess there's a bit of question of how one defines "left-wing", but certainly plenty of rural English (let alone Scottish or Welsh) areas that are not industrial/mining communities had, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, nonconforming, anti-clerical and anti-establishment traditions. Far more Liberal than Labour, of course, but the Liberals were "the left" of the 19th century.

And the U.S. has Vermont.

I meant left more as in socialism/new deal politics.