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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, VirginiŠ)
| | |-+  Which of the 2016 Republicans is the strongest candidate for 2024
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Question: (Excluding Trump and Pataki)
Ted Cruz   -12 (15.4%)
Marco Rubio   -30 (38.5%)
John Kasich   -14 (17.9%)
Ben Carson   -0 (0%)
Jeb Bush   -0 (0%)
Chris Christie   -3 (3.8%)
Carly Fiorina   -3 (3.8%)
Rand Paul   -11 (14.1%)
Rick Santorum   -0 (0%)
Rick Perry   -0 (0%)
Bobby Jindal   -0 (0%)
Lindsey Graham   -3 (3.8%)
Scott Walker   -0 (0%)
Jim Gilmore   -2 (2.6%)
Mike Huckabee   -0 (0%)
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Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Which of the 2016 Republicans is the strongest candidate for 2024  (Read 1172 times)
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katman46
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« on: December 10, 2018, 05:21:28 pm »

Assuming Trump has served two terms. I honestly doubt any of them would win, but the election could be close. John Kasich will be awfully old. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Jim Gilmore, and Mike Huckabee probably canít rhn again for a variety of reasons and if they did, they would all get crushed (although Scott Walker could do decently). If Trump were to endorse one of these people I could only really see it being Rand Paul or Ben Carson. I think overall Rand is the strongest candidate.
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2018, 06:50:41 pm »

I think Walker's political career is over. The strongest candidates are probably the youngest ones, so Rubio, Cruz, Paul. I wish Paul the best but the Republican base just isn't there for him (meaning they don't like his libertarian-ish style), and that is a fact that is very depressing for a person like me. And good luck to Cruz after that trainwreck of a primary last time. If he ever becomes the nominee (unlikely), I could see Trump not endorsing him as "payback" for him not endorsing Trump during the Republican convention, and that will only hurt and divide the party.
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« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2018, 08:09:01 pm »

The Randlet is my favorite but he doesn't have much charisma. Lion Ted has charisma but might still be considered too extreme. Kasuck and Marco Roboto were overrrated in 2016, are overrated today, and will still be overrated six years from now. There will easily be stronger candidates than them. However, maybe Marco Roboto is technically going to be the 'strongest' of all of these
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« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2018, 11:46:49 pm »

I think Walker's political career is over. The strongest candidates are probably the youngest ones, so Rubio, Cruz, Paul. I wish Paul the best but the Republican base just isn't there for him (meaning they don't like his libertarian-ish style), and that is a fact that is very depressing for a person like me. And good luck to Cruz after that trainwreck of a primary last time. If he ever becomes the nominee (unlikely), I could see Trump not endorsing him as "payback" for him not endorsing Trump during the Republican convention, and that will only hurt and divide the party.

As someone who is deeply involved in my GOP, I can tell you that there is (at least here) a solid base for Rand Paul. Our county GOP chair ran for mayor this year and got endorsed by the Libertarian Party. We love Libertarians. Jason Lewis was also one of the most libertarian Congressmen in the House, and won his primary handily after a Rand Paul endorsement. So he would do well here for sure, but that might not be indicative of greater Minnesota and more importantly Iowa.

I am not totally sure Walker's political career is over. It's definitely in a bad state, but he could run for Congress and honestly after Evers is out he could be Governor again. He was an embattled Governor who lost narrowly in a blue wave year so obviously he has to be at least somewhat popular. Couple that with how Wisconsin is trending red and it's not a stretch at all. 2024 will probably be too soon for him though.

I see Ted Cruz as a really, really weak candidate. He doesn't have the GOP base and has somehow managed to alienate himself to moderates, libertarians, and conservatives in the GOP and only is liked by the few who are in a limbo between there and the few who still identify with the Tea Party.

Marco Rubio reminds me a lot of Richard Nixon. That's all I really have to say about him. He'll probably be President some day and I would bet good money that he has, at the very least, some very shady connections.

Besides those four, I would agree that no one stands out as a solid future candidate, much less a President.
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2018, 03:26:50 pm »

I think Walker's political career is over. The strongest candidates are probably the youngest ones, so Rubio, Cruz, Paul. I wish Paul the best but the Republican base just isn't there for him (meaning they don't like his libertarian-ish style), and that is a fact that is very depressing for a person like me. And good luck to Cruz after that trainwreck of a primary last time. If he ever becomes the nominee (unlikely), I could see Trump not endorsing him as "payback" for him not endorsing Trump during the Republican convention, and that will only hurt and divide the party.

 

Marco Rubio reminds me a lot of Richard Nixon. That's all I really have to say about him. He'll probably be President some day and I would bet good money that he has, at the very least, some very shady connections.

Those connections were the Bushes, he gave those connections up when he went against them. Nixon was connected to Eisenhower's old friends. Anyway, it is now in vogue to bash Cruz due to the tight race with Beto, but people are ignoring that both Scott & Nelson have higher approvals than Rubio, who didn't run this cycle.
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2018, 07:58:46 pm »

I could see Cruz being the Bob Dole or John McCain of 2024. Ya know the guy that was runner up in the last open primary (2016 in this case) that's put up to take one for the team.
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2018, 09:55:04 pm »

I could see Cruz being the Bob Dole or John McCain of 2024. Ya know the guy that was runner up in the last open primary (2016 in this case) that's put up to take one for the team.

Or like the Mike Huckabee

He's put up to play up the "he lost because he's a southern Republican" narrative and then some moderate guy beats him out in a random come from behind victory (no one saw McCain coming until kind of late in 2008 primaries)
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2018, 11:32:39 pm »

If Trump loses in 2020 - Marco Rubio. Rubio's going to be able to say with confidence that the "Trump revolution" was a bust, and probably be able to convert the GOP back to the traditional Neo-Conservatism ways.

If Trump wins in 2020 - Ted Cruz. He's the closest to Trump in terms of overall agenda.

However, I expect the 2024 GOP nominee to be someone not from 2016. My current bets are on DeSantis, Cotton, or Gaetz.
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2018, 04:24:04 pm »

If Trump loses in 2020 - Marco Rubio. Rubio's going to be able to say with confidence that the "Trump revolution" was a bust, and probably be able to convert the GOP back to the traditional Neo-Conservatism ways.

If Trump wins in 2020 - Ted Cruz. He's the closest to Trump in terms of overall agenda.

I could see Cruz being the Bob Dole or John McCain of 2024. Ya know the guy that was runner up in the last open primary (2016 in this case) that's put up to take one for the team.

This.

I could see Cruz being the Bob Dole or John McCain of 2024. Ya know the guy that was runner up in the last open primary (2016 in this case) that's put up to take one for the team.

Or like the Mike Huckabee

He's put up to play up the "he lost because he's a southern Republican" narrative and then some moderate guy beats him out in a random come from behind victory (no one saw McCain coming until kind of late in 2008 primaries)

Not true. He was the front-runner for the nomination at the start of the campaign cycle in early 2007. Yeah, he ended up crashing big-time between then & the resurgence that came w/ the actual start of the primaries & caucuses, but to say that no one saw him coming until late in the primary season is kinda disingenuous lol
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« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2018, 12:51:50 am »

If Trump goes two terms, he will have completely transformed the party in his image. There will be a wave of Trump-ites in Congress who rode his coattails to power, one of which will probably be announced by Trump as his handpicked successor. That candidate will have the full weight of Fox News and the right wing media establishment behind him, and will be an absolute juggernaut.

I don't really see anyone in that list fitting that bill.
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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2018, 03:28:50 am »

If Trump goes two terms, he will have completely transformed the party in his image. There will be a wave of Trump-ites in Congress who rode his coattails to power, one of which will probably be announced by Trump as his handpicked successor. That candidate will have the full weight of Fox News and the right wing media establishment behind him, and will be an absolute juggernaut.

I don't really see anyone in that list fitting that bill.

Also this. It's a much more likely outcome that the 2024 nominee (regardless of the 2020 result) is a loyal(-ish) Trumpist (whether it be Pence, Haley, or somebody else) who didn't run in 2016.
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« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2018, 09:28:25 am »

If Trump goes two terms, he will have completely transformed the party in his image. There will be a wave of Trump-ites in Congress who rode his coattails to power, one of which will probably be announced by Trump as his handpicked successor. That candidate will have the full weight of Fox News and the right wing media establishment behind him, and will be an absolute juggernaut.

I don't really see anyone in that list fitting that bill.

Also this. It's a much more likely outcome that the 2024 nominee (regardless of the 2020 result) is a loyal(-ish) Trumpist (whether it be Pence, Haley, or somebody else) who didn't run in 2016.

Not that anything regarding Trump makes a lick of logic or sense, but I would think that Fox News's love affair with Trump goes only as far as he's useful for cultivating their audience. If he crashes and burns, does Fox News remain the Trump Propaganda Network, or do they move on?

If Trump is somehow President in 2023, however (shudder), his official endorsement for successor will be hyped for weeks, and he'll make the announcement at a rally broadcast in prime time. I will personally barf if it comes to that.
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« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2018, 01:09:40 pm »

If Trump goes two terms, he will have completely transformed the party in his image. There will be a wave of Trump-ites in Congress who rode his coattails to power, one of which will probably be announced by Trump as his handpicked successor. That candidate will have the full weight of Fox News and the right wing media establishment behind him, and will be an absolute juggernaut.

I don't really see anyone in that list fitting that bill.

Also this. It's a much more likely outcome that the 2024 nominee (regardless of the 2020 result) is a loyal(-ish) Trumpist (whether it be Pence, Haley, or somebody else) who didn't run in 2016.

Not that anything regarding Trump makes a lick of logic or sense, but I would think that Fox News's love affair with Trump goes only as far as he's useful for cultivating their audience. If he crashes and burns, does Fox News remain the Trump Propaganda Network, or do they move on?

If Trump is somehow President in 2023, however (shudder), his official endorsement for successor will be hyped for weeks, and he'll make the announcement at a rally broadcast in prime time. I will personally barf if it comes to that.

Nah, they wouldn't abandon Trump unless/until they have a popular (i.e. w/ the base) replacement ready. That'd take quite the crashing & burning lol
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« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2019, 09:45:02 pm »

Rubio or Cruz.  All of the others will be too far removed from serving in elected office, and Rand Paul is a joke.
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« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2019, 09:21:55 am »

Marco Rubio
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« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2019, 12:05:09 pm »

I don't see any of these guys getting anywhere near the nomination in 2024. In 2024 the nominee will be from a new bench of candidates who imo will be stonger than the 2016 ones, like Pence, Haley or Cotton.

If any of the 2016 somehow gets the nomination, it will be Ted Cruz. He has some serious flaws but he's the only candidate from 2016 whose political career isn't over and whose views are close enough to the GOP base's in its current form to win the nomination.

Marco Rubio is not popular enough to win the nomination and has views that are too out of sync with the current GOP, Rand Paul is too libertarianish (I don't think there was ever a time when someone like him could have realistically won the nomination), Scott Walker's political career might be over, especially if Trump wins reelection (I could see him making a comeback in 2022 though if a Democrat is president, but even that imo wouldn't be enough to permit him to be a serious candidate after how badly he flopped in 2016, and I'm saying this as someone who supported him in the primary before he dropped out), and I think everyone else will have just been out of the public eye for way too long (and probably too old too) to stand any chance at all in 2024.
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« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2019, 12:38:25 pm »

Tucker Carlson or Tom Cotton would steamroll any of them in a primary.
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« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2019, 12:45:13 pm »

None of them stand any chance, but I guess Rubio or Cruz.
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« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2019, 10:32:37 am »

Well probably Cruz, but he would be in trouble for the generals. Rubio also still has a shot, but he's also damaged in the 2016 primaries. And Kasich, but in times where the Republican electorate is so polarized, and his refusal to fully support Trump will hurt him. Paul also has a shot for later, but not in 2024 really. I would've said Walker would also have had a chance, but his 2016 presidential candidature hurt him, and his loss of the gubernational election in Wisconsin basically ended his chances.

The others absolutely stand no chance at all (too old, too unknown or too politically damaged to even possibly run again).
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2019, 04:53:01 pm »

Cruz is the only ones who has odds better than 0%
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« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2019, 02:12:24 pm »

Paul of those but like previous posters said he is too libertarian and not populist enough, but I think if John James runs for senate in 2020 and wins he could be a front runner in 2024 if he runs for president. Rubio or Cruz have no chance. Way too establishment Republican.
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« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2019, 08:47:41 pm »

I could see Cruz being the Bob Dole or John McCain of 2024. Ya know the guy that was runner up in the last open primary (2016 in this case) that's put up to take one for the team.

Or like the Mike Huckabee

He's put up to play up the "he lost because he's a southern Republican" narrative and then some moderate guy beats him out in a random come from behind victory (no one saw McCain coming until kind of late in 2008 primaries)

Mike Huckabee probably would have won the Republican Nomination for President in 2012 since he was the runner up to John McCain in 2008.
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« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2019, 08:59:50 pm »

The Republican Party establishment will push for Nikki Haley but Ted Cruz will probably win the nomination since he was the runner up in 2016 and he was the most competitive runner up since Reagan and Ford in 1976.
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« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2019, 09:54:01 pm »

The Republican Party establishment will push for Nikki Haley but Ted Cruz will probably win the nomination since he was the runner up in 2016 and he was the most competitive runner up since Reagan and Ford in 1976.

Ehh I don't know. The Republican Party was more divided in 2016 and the vote spread across far more candidates than other election cycles, so I don't know if that's really an accurate comparison. Runner-ups sometime succeed and sometimes don't -- ask Santorum how well 2016 worked out for him. Anyway, the Tea Party and evangelical wing of the Republican Party is seriously in decline, and Cruz's approval numbers are weak, even in Texas. My guess in 2024 sees a more refined Trumpian figure.
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