Okay, I'm doing this to test something I made. I want you guys to give me a percent of how much each of these five regions will move left or right compared to the generic 2018 results (AKA 2018 with a 50/50 popular vote) to 2020 results. I have a spreadsheet that I want to test out with this. Here are the regions:
South
West
Pacific
Northwest
Midwest
After that, I'll give you a map and the margin of every state within 5%.
So, for example, let's say I think that the south will favor Democrats 2.1% more, west will favor Dems 1.7% more, etc, I would put this:
South D+2.1
West D+1.7
Pacific R+0.7
Northwest R+1.1
Midwest R+3.5
Then I would put that info into my magic spreadsheet and pump out this map:
And give you this list:
CO D+3.8
NH D+1.2
MN R+0.7
NV R+1.6
PA R+2.9
MI R+4.4
WI R+4.6
Catch my drift? Here are some notes about this:
Missouri is considered both a part of the south and a part of the midwest. Texas is considered both a part of the south and the west. Pennsylvania is both in the northwest and the midwest. I don't have house vote totals for Tennessee and New York, so I am using the Senate races until I can get those numbers. This is purely experimental and I would love suggestions as to how I could improve this. Also, if anyone has the US House numbers in TN or NY, PLEASE SEND THEM.
As a final note, if you want to predict far future trends, I am willing to do that too, but I don't really expect any sense of accuracy there.
