Rate Montana 2020
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Poll
Question: On a presidential level give the partisan rating of Montana (assuming that Steve Bullock is not the nominee).
#1
Strong D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Toss-Up		  
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Strong R		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Rate Montana 2020  (Read 646 times)
RoyCooper2020
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« on: December 12, 2018, 07:11:44 PM »
Montana has elected several Democrats in the past few years including Senator Jon Tester and Governor Steve Bullock; however, the state voted for Trump by 20 points. Could it swing to a democratic presidential candidate? What candidate would fare the best in the Big Sky State?
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2018, 07:12:47 PM »
Safe R
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2018, 07:12:55 PM »
Safe R
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2018, 07:15:09 PM »
I’d rate it Likely R, actually. Trump has lost a lot of support in the state since 2016 (particularly in the more urban counties), and Clinton was the worst possible fit for the state. Trump will obviously win it in a close election, but in a perfect storm it’s possible that the Democrat could narrowly win it.
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TML
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« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2018, 07:33:37 PM »
Likely R - it could be competitive (i.e. decided by <5%) if Democrats win the NPV by 5+ points.
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Xing
xingkerui
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2018, 08:45:27 PM »
Safe R. I could definitely see Trump's margin go down (I expect it to), but short of a recession and an indictment, I think Trump wins Montana by at least high single digits, and more likely double digits.
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ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2018, 08:46:24 PM »
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IceSpear
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2018, 09:11:23 PM »

This. Even getting it within single digits would be very surprising.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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E: -8.65, S: -6.26

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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2018, 09:18:56 PM »
If we get the dem nominee to shave his head like Tester's we might win!
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IceSpear
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E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2018, 09:20:22 PM »

Kamala Harris is such a neoliberal shrill corporate whore that will do anything for power, I bet she's going to the barber shop for a flat top as we speak. She probably even wants it bad enough to sever her fingers.
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Comrade Funk
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E: -5.16, S: -5.91

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« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2018, 10:23:19 PM »
Safe R.

If Ojeda or Bernie is the nominee, Safe D.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2018, 12:22:19 AM »
Pretty solid Republican.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #12 on: December 13, 2018, 01:24:17 AM »
Safe R, maybe it becomes competitive in a very good dem environment
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

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« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2018, 01:54:10 AM »
Likely R
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Wang
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2018, 02:34:33 AM »
Safe R.
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Woody
SirWoodbury
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E: 1.48, S: 1.30

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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2018, 03:38:11 AM »
Strong R.
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Skye
yeah_93
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2018, 05:04:07 AM »
It kind of depends on the candidate as to whether this is Likely R or Safe R, and that really tells you all you need to know about the race.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2018, 12:24:57 PM »
Safe R unless Bullock is the nominee.
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wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
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Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

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« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2018, 12:32:07 PM »
Safe R. It's clearly still viable for statewide candidates but it'll be a while before there's a realistic chance of Montana voting for a Dem for President.
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