LA-Abraham Internal/Remington (R): Tied in H2H, Edwards +12 in 3-Way

[The Other Castro]

John Bel Edwards (D) - 44%
Ralph Abraham (R) - 44%

John Bel Edwards (D) - 43%
Ralph Abraham (R) - 31%
Eddie Rispone (R) - 9%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yEX0AU37KaQ3IH8dyhZpALbuXePPtOOP/view

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

if the best you can do in an internal is tie, you know you got some problems here. Lean D.

[UncleSam]

I mean which way do people think those 12% undecided are gonna swing when Trump does a rally or two.

I do think that Atlas is deluding itself into think Bel Edwards has a better chance than he does - polarization tends to be a safe horse to bet on in the age of Trump

[MT Treasurer]

I mean which way do people think those 12% undecided are gonna swing when Trump does a rally or two.

I do think that Atlas is deluding itself into think Bel Edwards has a better chance than he does - polarization tends to be a safe horse to bet on in the age of Trump

This really has become a handy buzzword to justify even the most absurd ratings, hasn’t it? JBE isn’t safe, but he’s not going to lose to any Republican just because of one Trump rally there (if it didn’t work in WV of all states, it’s not going to work in LA). Why did Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu win reelection comfortably if polarization is such an unstoppable force?

[Doimper]

I mean which way do people think those 12% undecided are gonna swing when Trump does a rally or two.

I do think that Atlas is deluding itself into think Bel Edwards has a better chance than he does - polarization tends to be a safe horse to bet on in the age of Trump

This really has become a handy buzzword to justify even the most absurd ratings, hasn’t it? JBE isn’t safe, but he’s not going to lose to any Republican just because of one Trump rally there (if it didn’t work in WV of all states, it’s not going to work in LA). Why did Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu win reelection comfortably if polarization is such an unstoppable force?

All those comfortably reelected incumbents have something in common. Do you know what it is?

[MT Treasurer]

I mean which way do people think those 12% undecided are gonna swing when Trump does a rally or two.

I do think that Atlas is deluding itself into think Bel Edwards has a better chance than he does - polarization tends to be a safe horse to bet on in the age of Trump

This really has become a handy buzzword to justify even the most absurd ratings, hasn’t it? JBE isn’t safe, but he’s not going to lose to any Republican just because of one Trump rally there (if it didn’t work in WV of all states, it’s not going to work in LA). Why did Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu win reelection comfortably if polarization is such an unstoppable force?

All those comfortably reelected incumbents have something in common. Do you know what it is?

Justice 2016, Bullock 2016, Kelly 2018, JBE 2015 (it’s not as if LA wasn’t "polarized" in 2015, especially under Obama), Jones 2017, Tester 2018, Manchin 2018, etc.

I’d also add that while McCaskill, Bredesen, Donnelly, and Heitkamp all lost, they outperformed Clinton by a lot, certainly by more than they "should have" if polarization was truly at an all-time high.

[Politician]

Lean D at this incredibly early juncture

[Skye]

As an internal, and a year before the election, one has to take it fwiw.

That said, if Edwards constantly has trouble reaching the 50's in the polls, he's in trouble.

[Zaybay]

I mean which way do people think those 12% undecided are gonna swing when Trump does a rally or two.

I do think that Atlas is deluding itself into think Bel Edwards has a better chance than he does - polarization tends to be a safe horse to bet on in the age of Trump

This really has become a handy buzzword to justify even the most absurd ratings, hasn’t it? JBE isn’t safe, but he’s not going to lose to any Republican just because of one Trump rally there (if it didn’t work in WV of all states, it’s not going to work in LA). Why did Baker, Hogan, Scott, and Sununu win reelection comfortably if polarization is such an unstoppable force?

All those comfortably reelected incumbents have something in common. Do you know what it is?

easy, popularity, which is an attribute JBE shares, along with others like Tester, Sinema, and one that was lost on people like Donelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Kobach, Morrisey, Polquin, Tenney, you know, the ones that lost.

Seriously, if you want the best determiner for a race, just look at popularity, works almost every time.

[Calthrina950]

I wouldn't be surprised if Louisiana is decided by a margin of five points or less.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Run-off is definately a possibilty, its not a lean Democratic race, if JBE is polling below 50%

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's Lean D for now...but a word caution. If the jungle primary goes to a runoff, Edwards loses against any Republican (especially Abraham)

He needs to win in the first round, or alternatively, coax another Democrat and several more Republicans into the race, so the runoff is JBE vs another Democrat.

[lfromnj]

This one's Lean D for now...but a word caution. If the jungle primary goes to a runoff, Edwards loses against any Republican (especially Abraham)

He needs to win in the first round, or alternatively, coax another Democrat and several more Republicans into the race, so the runoff is JBE vs another Democrat.

I think dems don't have the Georgia effect in ka runoff s. That's why Mary Landrieu didn't get blanched .

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This one's Lean D for now...but a word caution. If the jungle primary goes to a runoff, Edwards loses against any Republican (especially Abraham)

He needs to win in the first round, or alternatively, coax another Democrat and several more Republicans into the race, so the runoff is JBE vs another Democrat.

I think dems don't have the Georgia effect in ka runoff s. That's why Mary Landrieu didn't get blanched .

Yes, in fact it's usually the other way around. Dems actually do better in runoffs in LA

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's Lean D for now...but a word caution. If the jungle primary goes to a runoff, Edwards loses against any Republican (especially Abraham)

He needs to win in the first round, or alternatively, coax another Democrat and several more Republicans into the race, so the runoff is JBE vs another Democrat.

I think dems don't have the Georgia effect in ka runoff s. That's why Mary Landrieu didn't get blanched .

Landrieu was a relatively popular incumbent herself, from a famous political family, and I think Abraham is a slightly stronger theoretical candidate than Cassidy was, because Cassidy was a Democrat before 2001, whereas Abraham has never been a registered Republican and both are/were stronger candidates in any election than Kennedy is today, largely because voters now punish party switching.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Claire McCaskill cannot win re-election in Missouri, then John Bel Edwards cannot win re-election in Louisiana, as Louisiana is substantially more Republican than Missouri is, without much of anything to distinguish between the states that could result in a switch in placement.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If Claire McCaskill cannot win re-election in Missouri, then John Bel Edwards cannot win re-election in Louisiana, as Louisiana is substantially more Republican than Missouri is, without much of anything to distinguish between the states that could result in a switch in placement.

You're missing one little thing here...


John Bel Edwards has consistently had great approval ratings, while Claire McCaskill had underwater approvals.

You could make the exact same argument that you just made and swap LA-GOV with WV-SEN '18.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Claire McCaskill cannot win re-election in Missouri, then John Bel Edwards cannot win re-election in Louisiana, as Louisiana is substantially more Republican than Missouri is, without much of anything to distinguish between the states that could result in a switch in placement.

McCaskill and Heitkamp were liberal Dems running in conservative states

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If Claire McCaskill cannot win re-election in Missouri, then John Bel Edwards cannot win re-election in Louisiana, as Louisiana is substantially more Republican than Missouri is, without much of anything to distinguish between the states that could result in a switch in placement.

McCaskill and Heitkamp were liberal Dems running in conservative states

No, they weren't.

Heitkamp was one of the most moderate Senate Dems, and McCaskill was only slightly to her left.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Claire McCaskill cannot win re-election in Missouri, then John Bel Edwards cannot win re-election in Louisiana, as Louisiana is substantially more Republican than Missouri is, without much of anything to distinguish between the states that could result in a switch in placement.

Yeah, Kansas being to the right of Missouri doomed Laura Kelly too

There are aspects of Kansas that can push it to the left of Missouri in the correct circumstances... and it did in 2018.

[Xing]

If Claire McCaskill cannot win re-election in Missouri, then John Bel Edwards cannot win re-election in Louisiana, as Louisiana is substantially more Republican than Missouri is, without much of anything to distinguish between the states that could result in a switch in placement.

Gubernatorial races =/= Senate races. McCaskill was unpopular, Edwards isn't. It's the same reason why Baker won easily while Heller never had a chance.