Why did John Cox win riverside county?

[Matty]

He lost OC, which on national level stayed gop longer than riverside

[Badger]

He lost OC, which on national level stayed gop longer than riverside

If I had to guess, Orange County was Ground Zero of half a dozen or so Uber competitive congressional seats which led to an extremely focused get-out-the-vote and advertising campaign that, as we saw, resulted in a democratic sweep. Call it reverse coattails for Newsom.

Conversely, iirc Riverside County was relatively quiet

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

My brief anecdotal experience in Riverside is that it's more conservative than the rest of the LA area - it's the last relatively affordable place in the city and attracts people who get priced out of other areas of SoCal. It's a different demographic than the one that swung hard to Newsom in OC, so it's less likely to follow the nationwide demographic trends as hard as OC did.

That said, Cox on Riverside by +2.5K, and Newsom won OC by +3K. We talking about something that could easily be statistical noise.

[Oryxslayer]

Its really simple people, don't try and jump through hoops you don't understand. The dem base in San Bernadino, Riverside, Fresno, and much of the Central Valley are Hispanics. They turnout less in midterms when matched against the general. Republicans have a higher floor there then in a General election. In contrast, dem gains in OC were more coming from Asians and Whites who overpreform their general turnout -albeit comparatively to hispanics.

With this in mind, its more surprising Newsom won San Bernadino.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The dem base in San Bernadino, Riverside, Fresno, and much of the Central Valley are Hispanics.

[DrScholl]

There are many evangelicals in Riverside County.

[AudmanOut]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

[Bojack Horseman]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

I thought that was Fresno and Bakersfield.

[NCJeff]

It could also be that the loss of the tax deduction for property taxes hit worse in Orange County than in Riverside, so there was more of a reaction against the GOP.

[AudmanOut]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

I thought that was Fresno and Bakersfield.

There garbage too, San Bernardino could also be considered garbage.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

I thought that was Fresno and Bakersfield.

There garbage too, San Bernardino could also be considered garbage.

[Mike Thick]

Riverside is the Florida of SoCal counties

[Technocracy Timmy]

Straight up every time I have the misfortune of visiting Riverside county I’m immidiately reminded of why it’s called  R I V E R S H ! T

[Hydera]

Its really simple people, don't try and jump through hoops you don't understand. The dem base in San Bernadino, Riverside, Fresno, and much of the Central Valley are Hispanics. They turnout less in midterms when matched against the general. Republicans have a higher floor there then in a General election. In contrast, dem gains in OC were more coming from Asians and Whites who overpreform their general turnout -albeit comparatively to hispanics.

With this in mind, its more surprising Newsom won San Bernadino.

Riverside is 6 percent whiter than San Bernadino. Also in comparison OC and San Diego is much whiter than the other two but their higher income and higher education which allowed dems to win. White people with lower income/no higher education are the GOP's strongest base after all.

[Timothy87]

I think everyone hit the reasons:
Competitive house races versus no competitive house races
Education/wealth demographic difference

By the way did anyone else notice this?

Orange County primary results
All Dems: 308,533 49.70%
All Reps: 305,455 49.20%
Margin: 3,078 0.50%

Orange County general results
Dem: 543,047 50.19%
Rep: 539,951 49.81%
Margin: 3,096 0.37%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I guess you're upset as well about Riverside ruining the 2018 map?


To be fair to my home county, they voted quite close to OC this year. Newsom just couldn't get those 3,000 votes

DEMS                     RIVERSIDE     ORANGE      RIV - OC
Governor                   49.81%      50.14%       -0.3
Sec. of State              52.39%      52.29%       +0.1
Controller                  52.92%      52.92%       -0.005
Treasurer                   52.10%      51.81%      +0.3
Attorney General       51.57%      51.66%       -0.1
Congress                    54.29%      54.16%      +0.1

[RINO Tom]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

I thought that was Fresno and Bakersfield.

There garbage too, San Bernardino could also be considered garbage.

You have garbage grammar/spelling, LOL.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

I thought that was Fresno and Bakersfield.

There garbage too, San Bernardino could also be considered garbage.

You have garbage grammar/spelling, LOL.

Please don’t bully Eharding’s sock account.

[AudmanOut]

Because it’s garbage so only garbage people would live there.

I thought that was Fresno and Bakersfield.

There garbage too, San Bernardino could also be considered garbage.

You have garbage grammar/spelling, LOL.

Please don’t bully Eharding’s sock account.

Whatever.

[tallguy23]

Its really simple people, don't try and jump through hoops you don't understand. The dem base in San Bernadino, Riverside, Fresno, and much of the Central Valley are Hispanics. They turnout less in midterms when matched against the general. Republicans have a higher floor there then in a General election. In contrast, dem gains in OC were more coming from Asians and Whites who overpreform their general turnout -albeit comparatively to hispanics.

With this in mind, its more surprising Newsom won San Bernadino.

This. Also, Riverside County has a lot of rural areas and Trump is very popular with rural whites. My aunt is pretty much the only liberal in her small, rural community in Riverside.

[Oryxslayer]

Its really simple people, don't try and jump through hoops you don't understand. The dem base in San Bernadino, Riverside, Fresno, and much of the Central Valley are Hispanics. They turnout less in midterms when matched against the general. Republicans have a higher floor there then in a General election. In contrast, dem gains in OC were more coming from Asians and Whites who overpreform their general turnout -albeit comparatively to hispanics.

With this in mind, its more surprising Newsom won San Bernadino.

This. Also, Riverside County has a lot of rural areas and Trump is very popular with rural whites. My aunt is pretty much the only liberal in her small, rural community in Riverside.

Does it really though? Most of rural Riverside is unoccupied desert, the pub votes come from places like Temecula around CA-42.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

More random numbers!


Cities held by Dems in last three gubernatorial races:  Cathedral City, Coachella, Desert Hot Springs, Indio, Moreno Valley, Palm Springs, Perris, Riverside

Cities that Dems flipped in 2014 & 2018:  Eastvale, Jurupa Valley, Rancho Mirage, San Jacinto



Cities held by GOP in last three gubernatorial races:  Banning, Beaumont, Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Corona, Hemet, Indian Wells, La Quinta, Lake Elsinore, Murrieta, Norco, Palm Desert, Temecula, Wildomar

Cities that Cox flipped in 2018:  Blythe


Closest margins (2018)
1.  Palm Desert       R+1.8
2.  Corona              R+3.6
3.  Blythe               R+5.9
4.  San Jacinto        D+6.4
5.  Rancho Mirage    D+6.6

Top D swings (2018-2014)
1. Jurupa Valley     D+21.1
2. Eastvale            D+15.2
3. Corona              D+13.5
4. San Jacinto        D+13.3
5. Temecula           D+10.7

Top R swings (2018-2014)
1. Blythe                R+10.8
2. Canyon Lake       R+9.2
3. Coachella            R+8.2
4. Indian Wells        R+3.7
5. Calimesa             R+3.4

[Timothy87]

More random numbers!


Cities held by Dems in last three gubernatorial races:  Cathedral City, Coachella, Desert Hot Springs, Indio, Moreno Valley, Palm Springs, Perris, Riverside

Cities that Dems flipped in 2014 & 2018:  Eastvale, Jurupa Valley, Rancho Mirage, San Jacinto


That Coachella swing is quite interesting given how heavily Latino the city is.

Also replying to the above.. I was gonna say the same. rural means absolutely nothing in counties like Riverside, Orange, San Bernardino...
Cities held by GOP in last three gubernatorial races:  Banning, Beaumont, Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Corona, Hemet, Indian Wells, La Quinta, Lake Elsinore, Murrieta, Norco, Palm Desert, Temecula, Wildomar

Cities that Cox flipped in 2018:  Blythe


Closest margins (2018)
1.  Palm Desert       R+1.8
2.  Corona              R+3.6
3.  Blythe               R+5.9
4.  San Jacinto        D+6.4
5.  Rancho Mirage    D+6.6

Top D swings (2018-2014)
1. Jurupa Valley     D+21.1
2. Eastvale            D+15.2
3. Corona              D+13.5
4. San Jacinto        D+13.3
5. Temecula           D+10.7

Top R swings (2018-2014)
1. Blythe                R+10.8
2. Canyon Lake       R+9.2
3. Coachella            R+8.2
4. Indian Wells        R+3.7
5. Calimesa             R+3.4

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

That Coachella swing is quite interesting given how heavily Latino the city is.

Also replying to the above.. I was gonna say the same. rural means absolutely nothing in counties like Riverside, Orange, San Bernardino...

Eh, not really.

Since (at least) 2008, Coachella has been the strongest Democratic city in the county. More likely that they've maxed out the Dem vote.

2008 President:  84.1% - 14.8%
2010 Governor:  77.4% - 14.6%
2012 President:  88.1% - 10.7%
2014 Governor:  88.4% - 11.7%
2016 President:  85.2% -   9.8%
2018 Governor:  84.3% - 15.8%

[Badger]

My brief anecdotal experience in Riverside is that it's more conservative than the rest of the LA area - it's the last relatively affordable place in the city and attracts people who get priced out of other areas of SoCal. It's a different demographic than the one that swung hard to Newsom in OC, so it's less likely to follow the nationwide demographic trends as hard as OC did.

That said, Cox on Riverside by +2.5K, and Newsom won OC by +3K. We talking about something that could easily be statistical noise.

Both true, particularly that second point.