CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[ON Progressive]

Gardner actually has a credible shot now.

[Nyvin]

Gardner actually has a credible shot now.

Not really,  he's still screwed.

[Politician]

Hickenlooper isn't running? Thank God. Even though I'm an atheist.

[Zaybay]

Gardner actually has a credible shot now.

[Zaybay]

If Hickenlooper and Duran arent running, then the field is completely open. Perhaps some of the CO house delegation may enter in now.

[S019]

If Hickenlooper and Duran arent running, then the field is completely open. Perhaps some of the CO house delegation may enter in now.

Not if Ed Perlmutter jumps in (he probably will) so, Senator Perlmutter

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hickenlooper not running

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/23/john-hickenlooper-2020-senate-1182424?cid=apn

Nice!

[scutosaurus]

Gardner actually has a credible shot now.

[IceSpear]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

[DaWN]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

It's not Safe D this early, but I'd argue that if he needs the political environment dart to hit the dartboard in precisely right place and also get a weak opponent to have a shot then that's as close to DOA as anyone not named Doug Jones is going to get at this point.

Besides, McCaskill and Donnelly faced weak opponents in wave years for their party and still got thumped. Sure Missouri and Indiana are more Republican than Colorado is Democratic, and I'm not denying that in that circumstance Gardner would have a good shot - but arguing, as most of the pundits invariably do, that it's a Hyper Competitive Tossup Race because there might be a red wave is a bit silly, as is arguing he's even favoured if Republicans are having a good year elsewhere. He's just a generic R incumbent in a light-to-medium blue state. Ultra strong candidates don't beat incumbents who talk about nothing about abortion and condoms for the entire campaign by just 2 points in one of the most Republican years in recent history.

I can't speak for others, but I'm so bullish about this race for two reasons: firstly, that the main lessons I learnt from 2018 were not to underestimate partisanship and polarisation, and that 2016 trends are continuing whether we like it or not, and secondly, that hearing the pundits and the R hacks drone on about this Hyper Competitive Tossup Race for the next year and a half is going to be so mind numbing, I'd rather stake my counter position now.

[Mechavada]

Hey guys remember what happened the last time people laughed about Gardner's chances?



In all seriousness: I'm not saying Gardner is likely to win.  However, I've been on this website long enough to know that even seemingly open and shut races you have to expect the unexpected.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

LOL @ Red wave. An unpopular president like Trump is not going to generate a "red wave". Not saying it will be an amazing year for democrats but if Trump wins it will be narrow. In his max scenario, I'd say he wins 2016+ME, NH, MN, NV. So I can't see Gardner pulling through with Trump winning the Presidency without it, which is very possible. In fact(and this will cause some eyerolls for sure) he could lose by 10 in CO and still win the presidency.

[Zaybay]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

Isnt this a little rich coming from you? To write off a candidate due to factors like state partisanship and whatnot?

[IceSpear]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

Isnt this a little rich coming from you? To write off a candidate due to factors like state partisanship and whatnot?

PVI of Colorado: D+1
PVI of Kentucky: R+15

Clearly this comparison is totally equivalent. You'd have a point if I was talking about how Republicans could win Vermont.

[IceSpear]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

It's not Safe D this early, but I'd argue that if he needs the political environment dart to hit the dartboard in precisely right place and also get a weak opponent to have a shot then that's as close to DOA as anyone not named Doug Jones is going to get at this point.

Besides, McCaskill and Donnelly faced weak opponents in wave years for their party and still got thumped. Sure Missouri and Indiana are more Republican than Colorado is Democratic, and I'm not denying that in that circumstance Gardner would have a good shot - but arguing, as most of the pundits invariably do, that it's a Hyper Competitive Tossup Race because there might be a red wave is a bit silly, as is arguing he's even favoured if Republicans are having a good year elsewhere. He's just a generic R incumbent in a light-to-medium blue state. Ultra strong candidates don't beat incumbents who talk about nothing about abortion and condoms for the entire campaign by just 2 points in one of the most Republican years in recent history.

I can't speak for others, but I'm so bullish about this race for two reasons: firstly, that the main lessons I learnt from 2018 were not to underestimate partisanship and polarisation, and that 2016 trends are continuing whether we like it or not, and secondly, that hearing the pundits and the R hacks drone on about this Hyper Competitive Tossup Race for the next year and a half is going to be so mind numbing, I'd rather stake my counter position now.

Yeah, the pundits are obviously idiots for rating CO and AL as toss ups. Because of their stupid arbitrary "rule" about how no MUH incumbent could ever possibly be an underdog.

I'd put the race at likely D personally. If one was being overly cautious I could understand lean D as well.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/DenverChannel/status/1099836669019201536

[Zaybay]

Welp, its official:

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/former-colorado-house-speaker-crisanta-duran-announces-primary-challenge-to-rep-diana-degette

Duran is going to go for primarying DeGette.

[S019]

Welp, its official:

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/former-colorado-house-speaker-crisanta-duran-announces-primary-challenge-to-rep-diana-degette

Duran is going to go for primarying DeGette.

Lol
She really wants to end her political career

58-42 DeGette

[henster]

Remember all the hype about DeGette's challenger last year she even outraised her and she got stomped in the end.

[SnowLabrador]

Crisanta Duran is unbelievably stupid.

[Tartarus Sauce]

What the hell is she thinking??? Especially since Hickenlooper decided not to jump in.

I'm actually kind of bummed about this, I was kind of rooting for the prospect of her becoming the next Colorado senator.

[Not Me, Us]

What the hell is she thinking??? Especially since Hickenlooper decided not to jump in.

I'm actually kind of bummed about this, I was kind of rooting for the prospect of her becoming the next Colorado senator.

Ikr. Now we're stuck with Perlmutter. I really don't understand her decision.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I wouldn't rule out a run by either Hick or Duran at this point. After all, if early declarations and intentions were binding then Perlmutter would be in retirement now.

But yes, surprising and disappointing decision. I get that she may have a higher local profile than statewide (as high as you can expect for a state senator at least) but she'd be a good candidate for Senate and Gardner is as wounded as they come.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bennet got a cabinet appointment in a Democratic administration (Secretary of Education maybe) so maybe if a Democrat wins in 2020 Polis could appoint her to an open seat.

[Sestak]

Seriously, what?

A very good shot at the Senate thrown away for...what?

A very tough primary campaign against an incumbent who isn't really egregiously bad in any way.

Wtf goes into this decision?

[_]

Duran is a million leagues above us all, she's achieving the biggest galaxy brain in history right now.