CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[S019]

What is Bill Ritter doing now
What is Ken Salazar doing
What is John Salazar doing

These would all be strong candidates

[Young Conservative]

Senator Neguse, here we go!

He has a great backstory. If everyone else passes, particularly Hick once his Presidential run (presumably) flames out, he should definitely run.

He’d also become the first millennial Senator.

Is Josh Hawley just outside the millennial bracket?

[Roll Roons]

What is Bill Ritter doing now
What is Ken Salazar doing
What is John Salazar doing

These would all be strong candidates

Colorado is a state where the Democratic bench is strong enough that they don't need to rely on retreads.

[Zaybay]

Senator Neguse, here we go!

He has a great backstory. If everyone else passes, particularly Hick once his Presidential run (presumably) flames out, he should definitely run.

He’d also become the first millennial Senator.

Is Josh Hawley just outside the millennial bracket?

Yep, born in 1979, which would put him in the Gen X bracket (the widely agreed start date for Millennials is 1981).

[DaWN]

It doesn't matter. A Potted Plant (D) would probably be enough to defeat Gardner, providing said plant had no scandals.

A Potted Plant would beat Trump in CO

I think Gardner can outperform Trump by 2-3, Dems would really like a good candidate here, because they do not want this to fall into Tossup category, because Gardner is a good campaigner so, they have to consistently stay ahead to avoid risking this easy pickup

Even if the Dem-Trump margin in CO stays the same (all that that likely?), outperforming Trump by 2-3 won't be enough. There's no reason to think he'd manage that anyway - unless he gets a crap opponent (i.e a scandled potted plant or Todd Akin the potted plant), I can't see legions of D nominee - Gardner voters.

[Gass3268]

Denver Post revoked their 2014 endorsement of Cory Gardner due to his vote against terminating the President's "emergency" declaration.

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1106368907080798214

[ajc0918]

Gardner is over. D+1

[DaWN]

Gardner is over. D+1

This won't make a difference, actually. Firstly because he's DOA anyway, and secondly because nobody is going to care about this in November 2020. It'll just be another notch added to his voting record that's already an easy target for the Dem nominee.

[Zaybay]

Really, the question isnt whether Gardner can survive, but rather who the D nominee will be.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Really, the question isnt whether Gardner can survive, but rather who the D nominee will be.

[Continential]

Even Udall could win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally, even if AZ votes GOP could lose and Gardner is gone, need 2 more either from KY(Amy Graff) or TX or IA

[Progressive Pessimist]

McSally, even if AZ votes GOP could lose and Gardner is gone, need 2 more either from KY(Amy Graff) or TX or IA

You don't think that Georgia, Maine, or North Carolina are better targets?

[aaroncd107]

McSally, even if AZ votes GOP could lose and Gardner is gone, need 2 more either from KY(Amy Graff) or TX or IA

You don't think that Georgia, Maine, or North Carolina are better targets?

Amy Graff

[President Johnson]

McSally, even if AZ votes GOP could lose and Gardner is gone, need 2 more either from KY(Amy Graff) or TX or IA

You don't think that Georgia, Maine, or North Carolina are better targets?

All of them are targets. Democrats must pick up at least four seats to gain a majority since Doug Jones is most likely going to lose (and hopefully appointed attorney general). The path is probably Colorado + Maine + Arizona + North Carolina, while losing Alabama. Georgia is in play too, Texas a longshot.

[S019]

The path is
-AL (Likely R, even Roy Moore would win by single digits)
+CO (Tilt D, Gardner is unpopular and the Dem nominee should win CO by more than 3-4, which woukd doom Gardner, because he will not find that amount of ticket splitters)
+AZ (Tossup/Tilt R, AZ is a tossup on the presidential level, and if Dems carry it, McSally is doomed, because she is a polarizing figure)
+NC (Tilt/Lean R, NC is tough for Dems, though if the nominee is someone like, Joe Biden, it will flip, it is a decent Dem victory in the EC, this also flips)
+GA (Lean R without a runoff, without a runoff this will be incredible difficult, especially since Trump will win it barring a D-wave, Tilt R in the runoff, in a runoff Abrams has a better chance to make the race about her, if Trump is reelected, this probably jumps to tossup (advantage Perdue), because GA wants to send a check on Trump, if a Dem wins it is Lean/Likely R, GA will want to send a check on the Democrat, also the runoff outcome could depend on what the senate balance is before the runoff, regardless of who wins the White House, the runoff should be reevaluated, the day after Election day 2020

This assumes a Dem victory in the EV
Also the alternate GA scenarios are to analyze the possibilities in GA, GA looks to be tough, even if Dems win the EC

Also Susan Collins is fools gold

[SnowLabrador]

I disagree. Georgia is fool’s gold, because of the new voting machines that will make it absolutely impossible for any Democrat to win there.

[S019]

I disagree. Georgia is fool’s gold, because of the new voting machines that will make it absolutely impossible for any Democrat to win there.

So is ME and TX, withiut GA there is no majority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 is the real Senate majority, keeping House and Winning prez would still be great

Problem is, aside from Harris or Bernie, 0 of the others got a chance to be prez. Biden will run into fundraising problem competing with Harris Hollywood money advantage

[Blair]

Can anyone with experience/knowledge of CO politics explain why any decent democrats aren't jumping into the field?

Senate races are nearly always the easiest to recruit for, and whilst I know absolute no-name state senators can win, it just seems strange.

[Zaybay]

Can anyone with experience/knowledge of CO politics explain why any decent democrats aren't jumping into the field?

Senate races are nearly always the easiest to recruit for, and whilst I know absolute no-name state senators can win, it just seems strange.

If I were to take a guess, I would say its a tragedy of plenty. Because the seat is so easy to take, and Gardner is pretty much DOA, there is not really any pressure to run for the seat. People are allowed to make their own decision because "Hey, if I dont go for it, some other Top Dem will take the seat. Me not running doesnt endanger D chances".

A good example is Hickenlooper. He clearly doesnt want to be a senator, but if he was the former governor of say, NC, then he would be begged all the time, and he would be pressured by Ds who would see his seat as pivotal for control of the senate. But he's in CO, so there isnt any real pressure for him to launch a senate bid, and instead he can do what he really wants, run for president.

Thats my take on it anyway. TBH, the Dems who have already announced are completely fine as well, and can easily win the seat.

[MT Treasurer]

Gardner needs the Democratic nominee for president to implode and a red wave in which Trump loses CO by less than 2 or 3 points. Likely D....

oh wait Gardner is the incumbent and no A-lister has declared so far. Lean R.

[Sestak]

McSally, even if AZ votes GOP could lose and Gardner is gone, need 2 more either from KY(Amy Graff) or TX or IA

Any Graff for Senate!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Can anyone with experience/knowledge of CO politics explain why any decent democrats aren't jumping into the field?

Senate races are nearly always the easiest to recruit for, and whilst I know absolute no-name state senators can win, it just seems strange.

Do you have someone in mind who should be jumping in? Besides Hickenlooper (explainable) and Duran (beyond explanation) I'm not sure who else Democrats would be salivating over who should be declaring.

Also Zaybay's explanation is spot on. It's also March of 2019. Once the primary is over the party is going to unify against whoever wins and the GE will be relatively easy for anybody who is able to put on their pants/skirt correctly. There's no need to declare early and build a ton of recognition/campaign infrastructure unless you're a true nobody.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Can anyone with experience/knowledge of CO politics explain why any decent democrats aren't jumping into the field?

Senate races are nearly always the easiest to recruit for, and whilst I know absolute no-name state senators can win, it just seems strange.

Do you have someone in mind who should be jumping in? Besides Hickenlooper (explainable) and Duran (beyond explanation) I'm not sure who else Democrats would be salivating over who should be declaring.

Thoughts on Joseph Neguse?

I expect Neguse will run and unless Hickenlooper jumps into the race (conceivable if there isn't a favorite candidate) he has a pretty decent shot. Actually with Hickenlooper in the race Neguse would still probably have a good shot even if he wasn't odds-on favorite. CO-02 is a revolving door of more left-leaning candidates jumping into higher office (Udall and Polis).

That said it's pretty bad optics for someone who has been serving in the House for two months to declare candidacy for higher office. If he declares it won't be until later in the year and we'll hear some rumblings about it before it happens.