How would Casey Cagle have done if he was the Republican nominee for GA-GOV?
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  How would Casey Cagle have done if he was the Republican nominee for GA-GOV?
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Author Topic: How would Casey Cagle have done if he was the Republican nominee for GA-GOV?  (Read 839 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: December 13, 2018, 07:02:39 PM »

Discuss. I think he would have lost, due to his corruption scandals.
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2018, 07:07:13 PM »

He would have lost. Fascism has no place in Georgia.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2018, 07:14:04 PM »

He would have lost. Fascism has no place in Georgia.

Racism, yes. Fascism, no.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2018, 07:16:37 PM »

Won 52-46.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2018, 07:17:56 PM »


How does he do better than Kemp?
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2018, 07:18:49 PM »


Exactly. We've elected many racists before, but a fascist like Casey Cagle is a bridge too far.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2018, 07:19:28 PM »


Moderate image and stuff, does better in Greater Atlanta and exurbs.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2018, 07:20:07 PM »


racist hicks don't turn at as much to vote for him
Id say runoff.
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2018, 08:10:25 PM »

Did you learn nothing from overestimating republicans in the suburbs this election?
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Peanut
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« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2018, 08:14:57 PM »

Runoff, or narrow Stacey win. I highly doubt he'd've won outright.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2018, 09:53:43 PM »

I maintained from the beginning that Cagle would have been weaker not just because of any corruption or imagery surrounding that, but because he would have not riled up the rubes to come out and vote in the same way. I still believe that Cagle would have done worse (though he may still have won).

Precedent - as well as the runoff figures - suggest that he may have done a bit better in the suburbs, but given the huge swings against GOP candidates of all flavors in suburban areas both in GA and beyond this cycle, his more "moderate" image likely wouldn't have amounted to much salvation in terms of votes (it's also worth noting that the Abrams campaign would have had a field day with many of his past extreme positions, many of which dwarfed Kemp's). This election was just as much a repudiation of Trump as it was support for Abrams, Kemp or Cagle.

The fact that he looked and acted like an interior decorator from Brooklyn would have neutered much of his organic appeal with rural voters, who would have still came out and voted for him by large margins due to Abrams being a black female, but his campaign would not have resonated with these voters to the same degree as Mr "Round Up the Illegals and Shoot My Daughter's Boyfriends" did.

Ultimately, I think the map would have been less polarizing overall; Abrams would have done as well as she did in urban areas and would have still pulled out lots of non-black, non-white voters, Cagle might have done a hair better in suburbia, and he would have done measurably worse in rural areas due to both a smaller raw vote and less absolute support.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2018, 10:20:38 PM »

Worse than Kemp.  Cagle is one of the biggest political jokes in GA history and was always nothing more than a paper tiger in this race. 
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2018, 02:02:19 AM »

I'm not sure Cagle would've invigorated the Racist GA Hicks as much as Kemp did, which could've forced a runoff. It would probably be a small difference either way though.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2018, 03:10:13 AM »

Cagle still would have won, but his victory would have been in the runoff, not in the general election.
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