Who is the Dem mystery recruit in TX-24?

[Florida Man for Crime]

The word is that Democrats have a good candidate lined up in TX-24 to win the seat in 2020. Cook Political Report already has the race rated as a tossup.

Who do you think is the mystery candidate?

Is it another former football player, like Colin Allred? A former Dallas Cowboys star like Roger Staubach, Tony Dorsett, Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, etc?

Is it one of the Dem state reps from the area? Could it be Wendy Davis, whose State Senate district overlapped with TX-24? Could it be Martin Frost (only 76 years old, a spring chicken younger than Donna Shalala!)?

Someone well known from the private sector (Mark Cuban? not sure he would really be a Dem though...)?

Who could it be?

Will Kenny Marchant just call it a day and retire out of fear of ending up like Pete Sessions as soon as the candidate is announced?

[lfromnj]

Wait Martin Frost can also  make a comeback after the Delay mander?

Damn its coming full circle.

Nick Lampson can also run again.
Chet edwards has a very longshot path.

LOL texas is coming full circle.



Anyway If I had to guess its a state rep. Dems are starting to get a decent bench in these areas. This is easily the biggest recruitiment failure of 2018 for the dems .



Atlas still doesn't realize how good Texas dems are downballot after the Betowave. Holding 67 state house seats is VERY impressive. It gonna get worse in the 2020's. You can't exactly baconmander state house seats to rurals and the cities are growing more anyway so they get more seats.

TBH if I was marchant I would demand a regerrymander RN. Also the Texas GOP should politely ask carter or roger williams to retire in 2020 so they can create an Austin sink. Houston GOP and Dallas GOp(if the dallas county GOp even exists lol) would ask for the 32nd to made into a D sink district.



for the GOP a retirement might be better than an open seat. A young youthful candidate like Crenshaw would be better than Fat Pat 2.0.

[ajc0918]

The GOP is on the decline in Texas. Krazy Kenny will lose.

[cowboy300]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

[Thunder98]

TX-24 is very likely going to flip in 2020 imo. From Cooks

[Florida Man for Crime]

Wait Martin Frost can also  make a comeback after the Delay mander?

Damn its coming full circle.

Nick Lampson can also run again.
Chet edwards has a very longshot path.

LOL texas is coming full circle.

Martin Frost for TX-24
Nick Lampson for TX-22
Chet Edwards for TX-31
MJ Hegar for Senate
Beto for President

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is no need for them to retire. They can simply make one of the new districts TX will gain from reapportionment be the new Austin vote sink.

[lfromnj]

Wait Martin Frost can also  make a comeback after the Delay mander?

Damn its coming full circle.

Nick Lampson can also run again.
Chet edwards has a very longshot path.

LOL texas is coming full circle.

Martin Frost for TX-24
Nick Lampson for TX-22
Chet Edwards for TX-31
MJ Hegar for Senate
Beto for President

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is no need for them to retire. They can simply make one of the new districts TX will gain from reapportionment be the new Austin vote sink.

im saying they should delay mander aka mid decade for 2020.

Also Poor Sandlin gets left out as his area is trending GOP

[Florida Man for Crime]

Also Poor Sandlin gets left out as his area is trending GOP

I guess he can carpetbag to TX-06. Nowhere near his old district, but...

Ralph Hall (95 years old now) switches back to Dem and runs in TX-03...

Jim Turner runs in TX-02 (different area, but hey, it has the same district number as his old district!)

Charlie Stenholm carpetbags to TX-21.

[The Mikado]

No way in hell Martin Frost comes out of retirement. TX-24's insane growth is all people moving in from out of area/state, and they wouldn't know who Martin Frost was, anyway.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hopefully a real progressive. Evidence is clear we don't need to run GOP lite to win in these types of districts

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep.  

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

He's a couple miles outside the district, but other than that, he is a solid recruit. He is like a mini Will Hurd.

[lfromnj]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

[cowboy300]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

I know Rinaldi would lose bad.  I'm not debating that at all.  My argument is that the GOP is dumb enough to let him win a primary. 

[lfromnj]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

I know Rinaldi would lose bad.  I'm not debating that at all.  My argument is that the GOP is dumb enough to let him win a primary. 

yeah the texas gop is at a breaking point and they need heal quickly. There was no ing reason for Greg Abbot to endorse Sarah Davis's challenger in a double digit Clinton and a +20 Beto seat. That is just asking for a loss.

[Florida Man for Crime]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

I know Rinaldi would lose bad.  I'm not debating that at all.  My argument is that the GOP is dumb enough to let him win a primary. 

yeah the texas gop is at a breaking point and they need heal quickly. There was no ing reason for Greg Abbot to endorse Sarah Davis's challenger in a double digit Clinton and a +20 Beto seat. That is just asking for a loss.

I just keep shaking my head in astonishment at things like Sarah Davis' district being a Beto +20 district. LOL.

[lfromnj]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

I know Rinaldi would lose bad.  I'm not debating that at all.  My argument is that the GOP is dumb enough to let him win a primary. 

yeah the texas gop is at a breaking point and they need heal quickly. There was no ing reason for Greg Abbot to endorse Sarah Davis's challenger in a double digit Clinton and a +20 Beto seat. That is just asking for a loss.

I just keep shaking my head in astonishment at things like Sarah Davis' district being a Beto +20 district. LOL.

Im not sure if it is Beto +20 but it is probably really high as I remember reading somewhere Clinton carried by double digits. I am assuming it is a Beto +20 district. The fact is that the Texas GOP needs candidates like Sarah Davis to hold on in these areas rather than alienating them.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Im not sure if it is Beto +20 but it is probably really high as I remember reading somewhere Clinton carried by double digits. I am assuming it is a Beto +20 district. The fact is that the Texas GOP needs candidates like Sarah Davis to hold on in these areas rather than alienating them.

It is going to become harder for her to keep winning GOP primaries though, because more of the moderate former Rs are going to start voting in D primaries.

So the opposite is more likely to happen, and people like her are if anything at increased risk of being purged.

[lfromnj]

Im not sure if it is Beto +20 but it is probably really high as I remember reading somewhere Clinton carried by double digits. I am assuming it is a Beto +20 district. The fact is that the Texas GOP needs candidates like Sarah Davis to hold on in these areas rather than alienating them.

It is going to become harder for her to keep winning GOP primaries though, because more of the moderate former Rs are going to start voting in D primaries.

So the opposite is more likely to happen, and people like her are if anything at increased risk of being purged.

https://www.texasobserver.org/will-sarah-davis-odd-duck-district-keep-the-legislatures-most-moderate-republican/

Its a romney +15 to Clinton +15 district. She is a smart person who realized she had to moderate after that. It is a very elastic district so Beto might even have carried it by a very large amount.

[Landslide Lyndon]

According to a guy at DKE it might be her.

https://ballotpedia.org/Julie_Johnson

[cowboy300]

According to a guy at DKE it might be her.

https://ballotpedia.org/Julie_Johnson

That thought crossed my mind even though she just won.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

My part of Hurst (which is well within TX-24) has rapidly gone from Caucasian to Hispanic which shows how demographics are steadily transforming the district into something new, granted, the tarrant county part of the district is what saved Marchant, as it voted for him by over 20 points (my precinct did vote for both Beto and Jan McDowell, though) while the Dallas County and Denton county parts both voted for McDowell.....

[The Mikado]

The saving grace for Marchant is that, if he survives 2020 (big if), because TX-24 has changed so rapidly due to population growth and that area is so, so much more densely populated than it was 10 years ago, the post-redistricting TX-24 can be significantly smaller physically and not extend so deep into West Dallas, Farmer's Branch/Addison, Carrollton etc. They could also drive it north into southern Denton County by adding Flower Mound.

I'm envisioning a new, R-drawn TX-24 hugging northern Tarrant and southern Denton Counties, reaching out just a bit into Dallas County to grab Coppell.

[Jeppe]

Jan McDowell is running again and it wouldn't be terribly surprising if she won the primary again, even against a serious candidate.

[Young Conservative]

He's retiring and a Republican will win the election to replace him.

[The Mikado]

He's retiring and a Republican will win the election to replace him.

TBH, Marchant is a stronger candidate than any other local Republican would be. They'd be crazy to replace him and have the seat be an open seat. At least he has some name recognition: there are people who pass exit signs for Marchant Boulevard every day on their commute. (I only mean this last part half-jokingly: given how little the guy does, the highway exit named after him is the main way people will encounter his name, but it is at least a way they're encountering his name)