Will McSally still be a Senator in January 2023

[lfromnj]

How likely is that McSally doesn't retire and also wins 2020 and 2022
I'm giving her a 20% chance

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

[NewYorkExpress]

She'll lose in 2020, but if she runs a rematch in 2022 she'd win.

That said, Republicans probably nominate someone else in 2022 if McSally isn't an incumbent (Deucy perhaps?).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She'll lose in 2020, but if she runs a rematch in 2022 she'd win.

That said, Republicans probably nominate someone else in 2022 if McSally isn't an incumbent (Deucy perhaps?).

Are we sure she'd even win the nomination after losing twice?

[UncleSam]

Probably 2/1 against

She is a favorite but only slightly come 2020 because Trump is only a slight favorite in AZ

Come 2022 she will more likely than not lose if Trump wins in 2020 and win if Trump loses in 2020.

Overall I’d say her odds of surviving 2020 are about 60/40

If Trump wins in 2020 her odds in 2022 assuming a 2020 win are about 1/3

If Trump loses then her odds are more like 4/5 if not higher (highly unlikely an incumbent from the opposing party as the White House loses a state like AZ, though not impossible obviously).

I think Trump’s odds are about 50/50 in 2020 so add it all up and I project that McSally is a senator from Arizona come January 2023 51 times out of 150 Ayy

[NewYorkExpress]

She'll lose in 2020, but if she runs a rematch in 2022 she'd win.

That said, Republicans probably nominate someone else in 2022 if McSally isn't an incumbent (Deucy perhaps?).

Are we sure she'd even win the nomination after losing twice?

I don't believe she'd run in 2022 if she loses in 2020 in the first place.

I think it's more likely Duecy runs, or someone like Gosar runs and wins the nomination.

[Not Me, Us]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

[pppolitics]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

[brucejoel99]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

[😥]

If Trump wins in 2020

2020
She also wins: 70%
She loses: 30%

2022
She wins: 15%
Sge loses: 85%

If Trump loses in 2020

2020
She wins: 30%
She also loses: 70%

2022 (no chance that she will win Republican primary)
She wins: 60%
She loses: 40%

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Don't tell ON Progressive or Zaybay this lol.

[Not Me, Us]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Gallego has just as good a chance as Woods. Voters don't care about ideology.

[Zaybay]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

Somebody akin to what you call a "garbage moderate" just won us the other AZ Sen seat, so Grant Woods would prob be a safe bet if he won the Dem primary.

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

Don't tell ON Progressive or Zaybay this lol.

hey, how you doing

Anyway, to answer the OPs question, it really depends on how popular McSally is going from here. Its very possible that she can reverse her unpopular image and win reelection, I mean, its exactly what Ducey did. But most likely, she stays unpopular, and if thats the case, she loses, most likely to Gallego

[YE]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

With the rise of polarization, returns are rapidly diminishing on the run moderates in swing states strategy. It isn't 1996 anymore. At this point, if Trump wins AZ, McSally wins. If Trump loses, the Democrat will win.

[Vern]

Well this is Atlas, so if most say she will lose then she will win.

[lfromnj]

Well this is Atlas, so if most say she will lose then she will win.

Didn't u think the GOP would hold the house lol.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

With the rise of polarization, returns are rapidly diminishing on the run moderates in swing states strategy. It isn't 1996 anymore. At this point, if Trump wins AZ, McSally wins. If Trump loses, the Democrat will win.

Probably yes, but HRC won 23 districts that elected GOP reps in 2016. Cooper and Bullock won gov. races in Trump states. I think McSally slightly outperforms the Dumpster in 2020. Whether she'll win is another matter. Likely both races go the same way, but it's not 100% certain.

[UncleSam]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

With the rise of polarization, returns are rapidly diminishing on the run moderates in swing states strategy. It isn't 1996 anymore. At this point, if Trump wins AZ, McSally wins. If Trump loses, the Democrat will win.

Exactly right. McSally’s path to victory is a narrow Trump loss where Trump wins AZ by 3-4 but loses some combination of MI, PA, WI, FL, NC, or GA to drop just below 270. Then she is home free because no way she would lose in a Democratic midterm after winning in a presidential year. Practically any other outcome in 2020 and she is toast by 2023 imo.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nope. It'll probably be Senator Grant Woods.

Grant Woods was a Republican. Please stop with garbage moderates.

He was.

Now, he's not.

Moderates have better chances of winning in AZ than die hard liberals.

With the rise of polarization, returns are rapidly diminishing on the run moderates in swing states strategy. It isn't 1996 anymore. At this point, if Trump wins AZ, McSally wins. If Trump loses, the Democrat will win.

[Xing]

The odds are against her. She pretty much needs Trump to win Arizona but still lose the election. It could happen, but the combined odds of Trump winning the election and Trump losing Arizona are much greater.

[MT Treasurer]

No. Even if Trump wins reelection narrowly in 2020, she could easily lose the Senate race (Trump is more likely to win WI and maybe even MI than AZ, and McSally isn’t going to outperform him at all). If she does survive, Trump has pretty much won already won reelection, in which case she can kiss the seat goodbye in 2022.

It’s not 2004 anymore.

[Tintrlvr]

5%: She doesn't run for reelection in 2020.
50%: She runs and loses in 2020.
<1%: She wins in 2020 but doesn't run for reelection in 2022.
10%: She wins in 2020 but runs and loses in 2022.
35%: She wins in 2020 and 2022.

So about two-thirds chance she is out by 2023.

[brucejoel99]

5%: She doesn't run for reelection in 2020.
50%: She runs and loses in 2020.
<1%: She wins in 2020 but doesn't run for reelection in 2022.
10%: She wins in 2020 but runs and loses in 2022.
35%: She wins in 2020 and 2022.

So about two-thirds chance she is out by 2023.

I'd also presume there are minuscule but technically non-zero chances for her to either not run or lose in 2020 but then run in 2022 & either win or lose (again) as well lol

[lfromnj]

Also don't forget she could get primaried.