Tennessee Precinct Analysis

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Starting with a repost focusing on Williamson County from NOVA Green's thread on the availability of full precinct results:

@NOVA Green:

I'm sure I will look more at other places later, but I will start with my home turf of Williamson County.

The two areas in Williamson County that I have been the most curious about possible D-trends are the areas of Brentwood near the Davidson border and the Cool Springs area of Franklin due to numerous new developments and the sense that it's becoming proto-urban with apartments and office buildings.

At first glance, the governor's race looks pretty much like 2016 in these areas.  Like Donald Trump did, Bill Lee won every precinct in Williamson County (and did not have the two-vote nail-biter just to the Northeast of Downtown Franklin like Trump did- Lee won that by 62 votes).

Bredesen, on the other hand, did flip two Williamson County precincts (using the two party vote):

Precinct 10-2 (Northeast of Downtown Franklin, the precinct Trump nearly lost): 57-43 Bredesen
Precinct 11-2 (Downtown Franklin): 54-46 Bredesen

Downtown Franklin had a massive divide between the two races, with Bill Lee carrying it 55-45.  If Bredesen had been able to get the same proportion of Lee voters that he got in the heart of downtown Franklin (now, downtown isn't really where most people live in Franklin, but it's still interesting), he would come very close to winning.

Brentwood (the legal Brentwood/Franklin border doesn't match up with precincts, so I am going to use all precincts within Districts 6 and 7 for Brentwood):
2018-GOV: 65-35 Lee
2018-SEN: 58-42 Blackburn
2018-REP: 66-34 Green
2018-STSEN: 67-33 Johnson
2016-PRES: 67-33 Trump

Brentwood PVI Relative to Statewide:
2018-GOV: R+9
2018-SEN: R+6
2016-PRES: R+7

Cool Springs: Again, the boundaries aren't perfect (and Cool Springs isn't a legal entity), but I'm using Precincts 4-1, 4-3, 8-2, and 12-1 for it.
2018-GOV: 62-38 Lee
2018-SEN: 56-44 Blackburn
2018-REP: 62-38 Green
2018-STSEN: 63-37 Johnson
2016-PRES: 66-34 Trump

Cool Springs State PVI:
2018-GOV: R+3
2018-SEN: R+0.4
2016-PRES: R+6

Downtown Franklin: (Precinct 11-2):
2018-GOV: 55-45 Lee
2018-SEN: 54-46 Bredesen
2018-REP: 53-47 Green
2018-STSEN: 54-46 Johnson
2016-PRES:  53-47 Trump

Williamson County vs. Tennessee:
2018-GOV: Williamson: R+32, Tennessee R+21 (Williamson R+11)
2018-SEN: Williamson: R+18, Tennessee R+11 (Williamson R+8 due to rounding)
2016-PRES: Williamson: R+35, Tennessee: R+26 (Williamson R+9)

So, other than maybe the Cool Springs area, it actually seems that any swings to the left in Williamson County halted and maybe slightly reversed themselves in 2018.  Both in the wealthiest parts of Brentwood and county-wide, 2018 Republican-Democrat margins were virtually identical to the Trump-Clinton margins in the county.  Cool Springs does not appear to have the massive growth in voter turnout that I thought it might, as Brentwood actually had higher turnout relative to 2016 than Cool Springs did (Brentwood had 104% of the R+D voters as 2016, so probably about 100% factoring in third-parties, while Cool Springs "only" had 101% of the 2016 R+D vote in 2018).  You can maybe see a slight trend in Cool Springs, which is probably younger and more transient than the rest of the county, but it's not massive or anything.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For this, I'm going to compare 2016-PRES to 2018-GOV since the statewide difference was much less in that than if we did the Senate race.  Still, slight Democratic improvement would still represent moving Republican versus the state as a whole.

I will now compare the suburban core of Williamson County to the more rural areas of the county to see just how red these suburbs actually are.

Brentwood/Franklin Suburban:
64-36 Lee
66-34 Trump
D Vote Share up 2.13%
R Vote Share up 0.78% relative to statewide
2018 Share of County's 2-Party Vote: 54.7%
2016 Share of County's 2-Party Vote: 55.0%

Other Suburban:
68-32 Lee
72-28 Trump
D Vote Share up 3.71%
D Vote Share up 0.80% relative to statewide
2018 Share of County's 2-Party Vote: 28.6%
2016 Share of County's 2-Party Vote: 28.0%


Rural:
72-28 Lee
74-26 Trump
D Vote Share up 1.98%
R Vote Share up 0.93% relative to statewide
2018 Share of County's 2-Party Vote: 16.7%
2016 Share of County's 2-Party Vote: 17.0%


Turnout: 99.4% of 2016 (including third-parties)

Analysis:
Interestingly, while the blue wave was most felt in suburban areas- especially well-off suburbs like Williamson County- in 2018, Williamson County was spared.  It wasn't even a case of it hitting the suburbs but being offset by rural areas of the county, as both the suburbs and rural areas trended Republican relative to the state as a whole (and also relative to the nation as a whole) in 2018.

The one section of the county that did trend Democratic was the group I labeled as "other suburban", which includes Nolensville, Thompson's Station, Spring Hill, and areas not officially in a city limits that are clearly suburban.  This group is also the fastest growing region of the county and almost certainly saw its raw vote totals increase versus 2016, even when including third parties.

This was most acutely felt in Spring Hill, which was a small town not long ago.  Despite being 30+ miles south of Nashville on the line between Williamson and Maury Counties, Spring Hill has seen rapid growth in recent years.  Each of its five precincts in Williamson County saw the raw Democratic vote increase from 2016, and four of the five saw the raw Republican vote decrease.  The below numbers for Spring Hill are only for its Williamson County side, but it will be interesting to look at the Maury County side in the future:

Spring Hill:
2018: 67-33 Lee
2016: 72-28 Trump
D Vote Share up 4.96%
D Vote Share up 2.05% relative to state as a whole

I haven't run the numbers, but it seems that non-Spring Hill areas of Other Suburban Williamson County had trends more resembling Brentwood/Franklin and the rural areas.  Spring Hill will be interesting to watch given that it was such an outlier in Williamson County in 2018.

NOTE: Spring Hill, including both the Maury and Williamson sections, has grown 524% from 2000 to 2018, according to Wikipedia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Holy smokes...524%.

[Gass3268]

Would love to see Davidson and Sumner next.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Would love to see Davidson and Sumner next.

Davidson is going to be difficult because of a large basket of votes unallocated by precinct, but I could do it with those caveats.