1972 : Richard Nixon (R) vs George Wallace (D)

[UWS]

What if George Wallace, segregationist Governor of Alabama, won the Democratic nomination in 1972, would President Richard Nixon defeat him by a bigger margin than McGovern due to his segregationist policies?

In fact in my opinion, Wallace would not even win Massachusetts, the only state that voted for McGovern in real life.

[bagelman]

It's only marginally possible that Wallace loses to McGovern - by a single EV:

Wallace should win Georgia and/or Louisiana though. Yes, it is realistic that Nixon wins DC in this setup.

In terms of the popular vote however, it's still possible that Wallace loses to McGovern with true landslide losses in the north and west cancelling out the deep south.

[Del Tachi]

Wallace 276 - Nixon 262

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

[brucejoel99]

Nixon 492 - Wallace 46

Naturally, of course, Nixon still wins in a landslide.

There's no way that any states outside of the Deep South would give their electoral votes to Wallace, avowed racist & segregationist (even though he was already trying to reform his name by 1972).

Not even 1972's dependable Democratic state, Massachusetts, would've gone for Wallace, & for the first (& likely only) time in history, DC would've gone Republican. There's no way the predominantly African American voters of Washington, D.C. would give their votes to Wallace.

Interestingly enough, the election occurring this way may have had some somewhat important long-term effects as well, since Nixon's "Southern Strategy" & "states rights" ideas would've been much less significant in the face of Wallace.

[morgankingsley]

Nixon 492 - Wallace 46

Naturally, of course, Nixon still wins in a landslide.

There's no way that any states outside of the Deep South would give their electoral votes to Wallace, avowed racist & segregationist (even though he was already trying to reform his name by 1972).

Not even 1972's dependable Democratic state, Massachusetts, would've gone for Wallace, & for the first (& likely only) time in history, DC would've gone Republican. There's no way the predominantly African American voters of Washington, D.C. would give their votes to Wallace.

Interestingly enough, the election occurring this way may have had some somewhat important long-term effects as well, since Nixon's "Southern Strategy" & "states rights" ideas would've been much less significant in the face of Wallace.

I might give him Arkansas, but I think mostly you are right. Ironically, Wallace probably would have done better electorally than most, if not all, fellow democrats in 1972. Nixon was just bound to crush it. In a way, it was more of a battle of who would suck the least against him

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

Richard M. Nixon/Spiro T. Agnew (R)  370 EV  (55%)
George C. Wallace/Lloyd M. Bentsen (D) 168 EV  (42%)

This scenario presumes (A) that Wallace didn't get shot, (B) that Wallace could actually get the Democratic nomination under any circumstances (highly doubtful), and (C) that there was no super-effective third party effort in the South.

1972 was not 1968.  In 1968, many liberals unquestionably viewed Nixon as a satisfactory alternative to Wallace as President.  In 1972, Nixon was viewed as a right wing conservative whose campaign tilted everyting to the right.  He was also the guy who kept the Vietnam War going longer than he promised, and a guy who was considered anti-black at that point, based on his sppointments of conservative Federal Judges and his opposition to busing for school integration.  

I believe that DC would have voted Democratic, but the electors would have voted for another Democrat.  

I believe that the campaign Nixon would have run in 1972 would have been decidedly different in 1972 had Wallace been his DEMOCRATIC opponent.  He'd have been more moderate, even liberal in some areas.  I cannot imagine the Democratic Party establishment getting behind Wallace, but if they had, I believe he would have carried the Southern states, and a few states on the border (KY, MO, WV).  I am not sure if there would have been slates of indiependent Democrats and states where the electors were not pledged to Wallace.  My prediction is based on a straight-up race.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Richard M. Nixon/Spiro T. Agnew (R)  370 EV  (55%)
George C. Wallace/Lloyd M. Bentsen (D) 168 EV  (42%)

This scenario presumes (A) that Wallace didn't get shot, (B) that Wallace could actually get the Democratic nomination under any circumstances (highly doubtful), and (C) that there was no super-effective third party effort in the South.

1972 was not 1968.  In 1968, many liberals unquestionably viewed Nixon as a satisfactory alternative to Wallace as President.  In 1972, Nixon was viewed as a right wing conservative whose campaign tilted everyting to the right.  He was also the guy who kept the Vietnam War going longer than he promised, and a guy who was considered anti-black at that point, based on his sppointments of conservative Federal Judges and his opposition to busing for school integration.  

I believe that DC would have voted Democratic, but the electors would have voted for another Democrat.  

I believe that the campaign Nixon would have run in 1972 would have been decidedly different in 1972 had Wallace been his DEMOCRATIC opponent.  He'd have been more moderate, even liberal in some areas.  I cannot imagine the Democratic Party establishment getting behind Wallace, but if they had, I believe he would have carried the Southern states, and a few states on the border (KY, MO, WV).  I am not sure if there would have been slates of indiependent Democrats and states where the electors were not pledged to Wallace.  My prediction is based on a straight-up race.

No way does Wallace win Texas , Florida , Virginia , Missouri or Oklahoma


And I doubt he wins any state outside what he won in 1968 and probably even less than that .

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

Richard M. Nixon/Spiro T. Agnew (R)  370 EV  (55%)
George C. Wallace/Lloyd M. Bentsen (D) 168 EV  (42%)

This scenario presumes (A) that Wallace didn't get shot, (B) that Wallace could actually get the Democratic nomination under any circumstances (highly doubtful), and (C) that there was no super-effective third party effort in the South.

1972 was not 1968.  In 1968, many liberals unquestionably viewed Nixon as a satisfactory alternative to Wallace as President.  In 1972, Nixon was viewed as a right wing conservative whose campaign tilted everyting to the right.  He was also the guy who kept the Vietnam War going longer than he promised, and a guy who was considered anti-black at that point, based on his sppointments of conservative Federal Judges and his opposition to busing for school integration.  

I believe that DC would have voted Democratic, but the electors would have voted for another Democrat.  

I believe that the campaign Nixon would have run in 1972 would have been decidedly different in 1972 had Wallace been his DEMOCRATIC opponent.  He'd have been more moderate, even liberal in some areas.  I cannot imagine the Democratic Party establishment getting behind Wallace, but if they had, I believe he would have carried the Southern states, and a few states on the border (KY, MO, WV).  I am not sure if there would have been slates of indiependent Democrats and states where the electors were not pledged to Wallace.  My prediction is based on a straight-up race.

Keep in mind that in 1972 Wallace was running as a Democrat.  These states I predicted he would carry had very few Republican officeholders at that time, and almost none at the local levels.  The exception was Tennessee, where East Tennessee had always elected Republicans to Congress.  Even Oklahoma had few LOCAL Republicans.  It's not like today.  Keep in mind that this scenario gives Wallace the nomination of the Democratic Party.  The vast majority of Democrats elected in the states I predicted he would carry would be OK with Wallace, with the exception of MO. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Richard M. Nixon/Spiro T. Agnew (R)  370 EV  (55%)
George C. Wallace/Lloyd M. Bentsen (D) 168 EV  (42%)

This scenario presumes (A) that Wallace didn't get shot, (B) that Wallace could actually get the Democratic nomination under any circumstances (highly doubtful), and (C) that there was no super-effective third party effort in the South.

1972 was not 1968.  In 1968, many liberals unquestionably viewed Nixon as a satisfactory alternative to Wallace as President.  In 1972, Nixon was viewed as a right wing conservative whose campaign tilted everyting to the right.  He was also the guy who kept the Vietnam War going longer than he promised, and a guy who was considered anti-black at that point, based on his sppointments of conservative Federal Judges and his opposition to busing for school integration.  

I believe that DC would have voted Democratic, but the electors would have voted for another Democrat.  

I believe that the campaign Nixon would have run in 1972 would have been decidedly different in 1972 had Wallace been his DEMOCRATIC opponent.  He'd have been more moderate, even liberal in some areas.  I cannot imagine the Democratic Party establishment getting behind Wallace, but if they had, I believe he would have carried the Southern states, and a few states on the border (KY, MO, WV).  I am not sure if there would have been slates of indiependent Democrats and states where the electors were not pledged to Wallace.  My prediction is based on a straight-up race.

Keep in mind that in 1972 Wallace was running as a Democrat.  These states I predicted he would carry had very few Republican officeholders at that time, and almost none at the local levels.  The exception was Tennessee, where East Tennessee had always elected Republicans to Congress.  Even Oklahoma had few LOCAL Republicans.  It's not like today.  Keep in mind that this scenario gives Wallace the nomination of the Democratic Party.  The vast majority of Democrats elected in the states I predicted he would carry would be OK with Wallace, with the exception of MO. 

Local office holders sure but at the Presidential level things were quite different


Carter didn’t even sweep the South in a far better year for the Democrats and against a Republican who was significantly worse fit for the south than 1972 Nixon . 1960 Nixon came very close to winning Texas and in 1972 he undoubtedly wins it .

[Politician]

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

There has to be a third-party candidate in this race...

[HomestarSB9]

Pres. Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Vice Pres. Spiro Agnew (R-MD) - 306 electoral votes
Mayor John Lindsay (I-NY) / Sen. George McGovern (I-SD) - 145 electoral votes
Fmr. Gov. George Wallace (D-AL) / Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) - 87 electoral votes

[Intell]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wallace 276 - Nixon 262

WARNING: Absurdity threshold exceeded.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://theharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-WALLACE-TRAILS-NIXON-BY-LARGEST-MARGIN-1972-05.pdf


Nixon lead Wallace by 9 points in the South, and only trailed Wallace by 1 point in the Deep South. There is no way Wallace even IMO holds his 1968 states with those numbers .

[Agonized-Statism]

President Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Vice President Spiro Agnew (R-MD) ✓
Governor George Wallace (D-AL) / Fmr. Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Benson (D-UT)
Fmr. Senator Eugene McCarthy (I-MN) / Mayor Kevin White (I-MA)

[Vice President Christian Man]

People seem to forget how popular Nixon was, even among Southerners, but Wallace would've done slightly better than McGovern overall. I'd argue that Wallace could've won or gotten close to it if he was the 1976 nominee and focused on economic populism, religious conservatism, and defeating poverty, rather than racial issues, and win Del Tachi's map plus Pennsylvania and possibly Iowa and minus New York (I think New York during that time period would've chosen a Javitz/Rockefeller style Republican over a populist Southern Democrat, save for if someone like Goldwater was nominated, which Ford was not a Goldwaterite). Nevada would've flipped as well seeing how Wallace did well for a non-Southern state and likeminded thinker Walter Barring Jr was elected to Congress at-large. Oregon would be competitive, but I don't think it would flip.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wallace 276 - Nixon 262

lol no.