NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[S019]

Tilt R, with Jackson

Tossup, with Cowell


Jackson is hilariously overrated on this site, can anyone tell me what makes him a good candidate. He only did about two points in 2016, than Democrats did in this seat in this 2012. While you could say oh, he would have done 3.5 points better, if 2016 and 2012 had the same national environment, you have to remember, that his seat is in rapidly D-trending Mecklenburg County, which was 7 points more Democratic in 2016 than 2012, even though the national environment swung 2 points more Democratic, so Mecklenburg trended 9 points Democratic, while Jackson's district only trended 4 points, therefore, he should underperform the Democratic baseline by 5, but because Tillis is. a weak candidate, it should be by more like 2-3, so Trump wins NC by 2 in 2020, Jackson loses by 4-5, but NC is quite polarized, so Jackson loses by more like 2-4.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Cal Cunningham is in: https://twitter.com/CalforNC/status/1140588718820155392

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cal Cunningham is in: https://twitter.com/CalforNC/status/1140588718820155392

Seems like a decent B lister

[SnowLabrador]

It'll be a close race for sure, but I'll feel much better if Jeff Jackson runs.

[MT Treasurer]

Of all the R-held seats this one is probably closest to being a pure Tossup.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Of all the R-held seats this one is probably closest to being a pure Tossup.

Still, if you forced a gun to my head, I would guess that Tillis survives by 2 points.

[Jon Tester]

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article231638158.html

Kay Hagan endorses Cunningham.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA, NC, GA, AZ and CO are Dems path to majority,  with ME too.

[mcmikk]

I feel like this race is probably going to come down to whoever wins NC in the presidential race. I don’t see Tillis under- or over-performing Trump.

[Epaminondas]

Where do all these right-wing retirees come from in NC? It seems to be stalling in its leftward swing since 2008
Raw vote increase 2008-2016::
- Dem : +40,000
- GOP: +240,000

if you forced a gun to my head

Doesn't saying "gun to my head" every other thread get old?

[Pollster]

The quick entry and Kay Hagan endorsement for Cunningham seems like a pretty clear sign that: a) he's going to be the party-backed pick and b) Jackson isn't taking on this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeff Jackson can run in 2022

[Del Tachi]

Cunnigham looks like weak sauce

[henster]

Another candidate has entered with a similar profile to Cunningham, Eric Mansfield former state Senator and Army doctor.

https://twitter.com/EricMansfieldNC/status/1140937854010478593

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Cowell still seems like the strongest option. Any updates on her potential candidacy?

[Pollster]

Cowell still seems like the strongest option. Any updates on her potential candidacy?

Agree - both of her wins as treasurer were big by NC Dem statewide standards.

[Canis]

I like cal and mansfield both of them seem like great candidates im liking our chances in this race

[HarrisonL]

Honestly Cunningham is a better candidate than Jeff Jackson. Democrats are better off running him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What are her chances of knocking out Tillis ?

It's good, due to fact NC is a purple state and Biden is winning it. Cunningham is the best recruit

[Progressive Pessimist]

Jeff Jackson can run in 2022

He can. But then he better hope that Trump gets re-elected.

Burr supposedly intends to retire, leaving the seat open in 2022. So I see why he would rather wait for this election. But if it's a midterm with a Democratic President, this seat will become tougher to win.

That's why I think Jackson should run against Tillis. The risk is about the same and he will probably be looked at as more of a hero for giving Democrats this seat sooner and for taking out an incumbent in one of the most frustrating states.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina

The GOP won the generic House vote in North Carolina in 2018, I believe Tillis should be fine in 2020 especially with a President I support at the top of the ticket.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina

The GOP won the generic House vote in North Carolina in 2018, Tillis should be fine in 2020 especially with the greatest President of all time at the top of the ticket.

Those results mean nothing from those gerrymandered seats.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina

The GOP won the generic House vote in North Carolina in 2018, Tillis should be fine in 2020 especially with the greatest President of all time at the top of the ticket.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Carolina_House_of_Representatives_election

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_North_Carolina

The GOP won the generic House vote in North Carolina in 2018, I believe Tillis should be fine in 2020 especially with a President I support at the top of the ticket.

They won because Walter Jones had no democratic opponent lol

[Gracile]

The Democrats won the North Carolina State Senate popular vote in 2018, which is significant because every seat was contested by the two major parties.