NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[SnowLabrador]

I consider this race Tilt R. After running some calculations, I think the most likely scenario is either Tillis winning by 4 points (50.9-46.9-2.2 or so) or losing by:

Democrat: 49.7%
Thom Tillis (Incumbent): 48.1%
Independent: 2.2%

The Democrats will target this seat; it's probably a must-win for them.

[Zaybay]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

[pbrower2a]

When one's approval ratings are a dismal 31-37, one is making little impression, and the impression isn't a good one.

[Suburbia]

Both Burr and Tillis are not well-known in North Carolina.

They're low-key politicians.

[Frenchrepublican]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

[Oryxslayer]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

North Carolina has a lot of Dixiecrats, news at 11.

In fact, as of today, North Carolina's overall Party ID is 38% D, 32% I, 30% R, despite voting Republican for president in both 2012 and 2016.

[Politician]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

lol

The sample is a Trump +3 sample.

[Zaybay]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

Sample is Trump+3. Pretty sure thats more representative than party registration(WV, KY and LA still have more D registered voters, and CO, NH, and NV still have more R registered).

[Frenchrepublican]

According to a recent PPP poll, Tillis is underwater, having an approval of 31/37 with 31% not knowing who he is. Pretty bad numbers for him to start the year off.

PPP is a joke, they  are using a D+10 sample in a conservative leaning state.

Anyway they had Burr underwater too in 2016 and he still won by a good margin

North Carolina has a lot of Dixiecrats, news at 11.

In fact, as of today, North Carolina's overall Party ID is 38% D, 32% I, 30% R, despite voting Republican for president in both 2012 and 2016.

Your numbers are for party registration, when you look at party identification (which party do you identify with ?) democrats and republicans are tied.

[Brittain33]

I wonder if Roy Cooper will seriously consider the race. It can't be fun being the Democratic governor of a one-party state where the legislature has legislated away democracy.

[SnowLabrador]

If he does, I think he'd be favored. If he provides strong enough coattails, we might even hold the governorship. But anyone who thinks Tillis would lose by more than 2-4 points is kidding themselves.

[QAnonKelly]

Seems like our dear friend Mr Tillis is really understanding the gravity of being 22 month shy of having an election in a swing state. Petting dogs while Rome burns with the vice arsonist

https://twitter.com/senatemajldr/status/1083043669794611202?s=21

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Seems like our dear friend Mr Tillis is really understanding the gravity of being 22 month shy of having an election in a swing state. Petting dogs while Rome burns with the vice arsonist

https://twitter.com/senatemajldr/status/1083043669794611202?s=21

Imagine naming your dog after your boss to curry favour.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1087492381576962049

This is the first I'm hearing about either Jackson or Stein.

[SnowLabrador]

Beating Tillis requires a good candidate, I hope either Jackson or Stein will run.

[pppolitics]

Beating Tillis requires a good candidate, I hope either Jackson or Stein will run.

If all else fail, can't Kay Hagan be brought back?

Her ACA vote won't be a baggage anymore considering the law's popularity today.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe this was addressed earlier in the thread, but her health won't permit that. Hagan got Powassan virus back in 2016.

[Holmes]

Beating Tillis requires a good candidate, I hope either Jackson or Stein will run.

If all else fail, can't Kay Hagan be brought back?

Her ACA vote won't be a baggage anymore considering the law's popularity today.

She's super sick.

[Mr. Smith]

Beating Tillis requires a good candidate, I hope either Jackson or Stein will run.

If all else fail, can't Kay Hagan be brought back?

Her ACA vote won't be a baggage anymore considering the law's popularity today.

She's no longer in the health to do that.

Also, rematches don't go well usually.

[Brittain33]

State Senator Erica Smith announced she is running. She represents several rural counties in Butterfield's district.

https://www.voteericafornc.com/

I'm assuming a state senator isn't considered a top-tier challenger.

[Tekken_Guy]

State Senator Erica Smith announced she is running. She represents several rural counties in Butterfield's district.

https://www.voteericafornc.com/

I'm assuming a state senator isn't considered a top-tier challenger.

True, but Kay Hagan was also a state senator when she ran.

Honestly, few congresspeople in poor black territory are ever considered serious challengers. Also, Hagan was an established veteran while Smith is new and unknown.

[Mr. Smith]

I honestly don't get why Deb Ross isn't considered. For what 2016 was overall for the state, and considering how mostly inoffensive Richard Burr was, she did quite well.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I honestly don't get why Deb Ross isn't considered. For what 2016 was overall for the state, and considering how mostly inoffensive Richard Burr was, she did quite well.

She underperformed Hillary Clinton.

[Pollster]

State Senator Erica Smith announced she is running. She represents several rural counties in Butterfield's district.

https://www.voteericafornc.com/

I'm assuming a state senator isn't considered a top-tier challenger.

State Sen. Jeff Jackson is considered one of the top possible recruits for this seat, though he seems to be dragging his feet.

Smith won what appeared to be a competitive reelection race in 2018, though she was uncontested in both 2016 and 2018. Looks like she is a capable candidate. If she loses, she'll no doubt have the profile to take Butterfield's seat if/when he retires.

[Mr. Smith]

I honestly don't get why Deb Ross isn't considered. For what 2016 was overall for the state, and considering how mostly inoffensive Richard Burr was, she did quite well.

She underperformed Hillary Clinton.

It was 2016, everyone not named Jason Kander did that, and Hillary sold 'em all out in an ill-fated attempt to get crossvotes.