NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato has changed this to tossup and Dems lead in AZ, CO, KS, NC, enough to win the Senate. Its Trump being impeached and polarizing that makes Dems confident and a 2012 feel to this election

[Rookie Yinzer]

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

Trump didn't even get 50 percent of the vote and was running against the machine. Now he is the machine and will have the stain of impeachment on him, turnout will be higher, and densely populated suburbs are rejecting him. He is toxic to a significant portion of the electorate and the state is a toss-up.

[Frenchrepublican]

Atlas democrats should really stop to act as if Trump were toxic in NC, as things stand as of now, Trump is more likely than not to win NC

Trump didn't even get 50 percent of the vote and was running against the machine. Now he is the machine and will have the stain of impeachment on him, turnout will be higher, and densely populated suburbs are rejecting him. He is toxic to a significant portion of the electorate and the state is a toss-up.

1. So by your own standards, we should consider MN as Tossup because Clinton won only a plurality of the vote.

2. A high turnout doesn’t necessarily help democrats.

3. You should look at a NC counties map, you would see that there are numerous relatively large counties which are very hostile to democrats.

4. He is very popular among a equally large part of the electorate.

5.  NC is lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its not Lean R, Sabato changed it to tossup. Gov Cooper will carry Dem Cunningham over the top

[QAnonKelly]

Tillis is one of seven senators who went on record saying they won’t remove Trump no matter what. He’s the only one who’s from a competitive state to do so. I guess his team is more worried about the primary at this point.

[IceSpear]

Tillis is one of seven senators who went on record saying they won’t remove Trump no matter what. He’s the only one who’s from a competitive state to do so. I guess his team is more worried about the primary at this point.

As he should be. He's going to have a significant chance of losing the general no matter what, much better strategy to lock down the primary and solidify the Trumpist base.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I love Schumer but his recruiting for this has had some bizarre choices. Like a 37 year old (good looking) state senator who joined the army after 9/11 and fought in Afghanistan is about as perfect of a choice as a dem could want for this race. And don’t get me started on the freakin Vice Admiral in Iowa that also isn’t getting encouragement from Chuck

[IceSpear]

I love Schumer but his recruiting for this has had some bizarre choices. Like a 37 year old (good looking) state senator who joined the army after 9/11 and fought in Afghanistan is about as perfect of a choice as a dem could want for this race. And don’t get me started on the freakin Vice Admiral in Iowa that also isn’t getting encouragement from Chuck

Meanwhile he lobbies for McGrift to enter and waste millions of dollars in Kentucky. He is a total joke and the best asset Republicans could've hoped for in holding the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I love Schumer but his recruiting for this has had some bizarre choices. Like a 37 year old (good looking) state senator who joined the army after 9/11 and fought in Afghanistan is about as perfect of a choice as a dem could want for this race. And don’t get me started on the freakin Vice Admiral in Iowa that also isn’t getting encouragement from Chuck

Meanwhile he lobbies for McGrift to enter and waste millions of dollars in Kentucky. He is a total joke and the best asset Republicans could've hoped for in holding the Senate.

Dems are doing well in polls in 2019 in KY, no one predicted that Beshear or Stumbo would be statistically tied in KY-GOV races and likewise, JBE is doing well, GOP were supposed to sweep all three Gov races.

Dems have to abandon IA-Sem, Ernst will win a spend $$$$ in KS, KY, TX amd AK in winning the Senate

[Roll Roons]

NC News: Kay Hagan just died.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/senate/467741-former-nc-senator-kay-hagan-dies-at-66%3famp

[Pollster]

I love Schumer but his recruiting for this has had some bizarre choices. Like a 37 year old (good looking) state senator who joined the army after 9/11 and fought in Afghanistan is about as perfect of a choice as a dem could want for this race. And don’t get me started on the freakin Vice Admiral in Iowa that also isn’t getting encouragement from Chuck

The party's recruitment strategy is focused solely on who can raise/self-fund the money. Jackson was reportedly unwilling to spend all of his time fundraising.

Also, tragic to hear about Hagan. She was a rare breed of Senator.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Let's flip this for Hagan, she would have wanted it to flip.

[Republican Left]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

I have to imagine the nomination is pretty much his for the taking if he jumps in. No other A-list candidates seem to be biting.

Certaintly a strong candidate

But I don’t see Tillis with any glaring weaknesses, I think Trump will carry Tillis over the top, Senate races are very polarized and NC is still Tilt/Lean R, Tillis is Generic R and this helps in a state like NC, if the Dem carries NC, they will carry Jackson across the finish lind

I know you're not a fan so you're probably not too keen on giving advice, but what kind of republicans do you think would win big in North Carolina, like a moderate conservative who broke on a few issues (which issues?) or a republican who had somewhat strong ties with the black community (what issues, could develop ties)?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

I have to imagine the nomination is pretty much his for the taking if he jumps in. No other A-list candidates seem to be biting.

Certaintly a strong candidate

But I don’t see Tillis with any glaring weaknesses, I think Trump will carry Tillis over the top, Senate races are very polarized and NC is still Tilt/Lean R, Tillis is Generic R and this helps in a state like NC, if the Dem carries NC, they will carry Jackson across the finish lind

I know you're not a fan so you're probably not too keen on giving advice, but what kind of republicans do you think would win big in North Carolina, like a moderate conservative who broke on a few issues (which issues?) or a republican who had somewhat strong ties with the black community (what issues, could develop ties)?

Even this probably wouldn't be effective. NC is too polarized for any truly big wins these days - at best, a good Republican can get to McCrory 2012 levels. Anything higher is honestly out of reach.

[TarHeelDem]

https://twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1116103138535198720?s=21

I have to imagine the nomination is pretty much his for the taking if he jumps in. No other A-list candidates seem to be biting.

Certaintly a strong candidate

But I don’t see Tillis with any glaring weaknesses, I think Trump will carry Tillis over the top, Senate races are very polarized and NC is still Tilt/Lean R, Tillis is Generic R and this helps in a state like NC, if the Dem carries NC, they will carry Jackson across the finish lind

I know you're not a fan so you're probably not too keen on giving advice, but what kind of republicans do you think would win big in North Carolina, like a moderate conservative who broke on a few issues (which issues?) or a republican who had somewhat strong ties with the black community (what issues, could develop ties)?

Even this probably wouldn't be effective. NC is too polarized for any truly big wins these days - at best, a good Republican can get to McCrory 2012 levels. Anything higher is honestly out of reach.

Prejudiced Pat's 2012 victory as the benchmark for a good GOP performance sounds right to me. The fact is that too many North Carolinians have their positions baked in at this point.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not the first one to say this here, but Tillis is in better shape than it appears. Yeah, he has low approval numbers, but they're either from Democrats (who are going to oppose him anyway) or Republicans who think he's not right-wing enough. Those Republicans will, by and large, still vote for him in the general election.

I think Tillis is favored, just because Trump is favored to carry North Carolina in 2020. It's as simple as that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tillis is stuck at 40 percent approvals, same place Kay Hagen was, Roy Cooper is on the ballot as well, this seat is a pure tossup

[hurricanehink]

North Carolina has grown by 300,000 people since 2016, mostly centered in big cities. If Dems coordinate from prez to Senate to Gov re-elect, they could target these new voters and maximize turnout to win up and down the ticket.

[Pollster]

Great politico piece on Tillis' campaign and his relationship with Trump

[MT Treasurer]

I used to think this was more winnable for Democrats than GA-S, but I’m not so sure anymore with NC's Democratic trend lagging behind GA's, Cunningham unable to pull away in the primary, and Tillis less and less likely to significantly underperform Trump. Still a Tossup/Tilt R, though.

[Mr. Smith]

I used to think this was more winnable for Democrats than GA-S, but I’m not so sure anymore with NC's Democratic trend lagging behind GA's, Cunningham unable to pull away in the primary, and Tillis less and less likely to significantly underperform Trump. Still a Tossup/Tilt R, though.

The race kinda reminds me of FL-Gov in a lot of ways, albeit Tillis has an incumbency advantage that Putnam never had.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I used to think this was more winnable for Democrats than GA-S, but I’m not so sure anymore with NC's Democratic trend lagging behind GA's, Cunningham unable to pull away in the primary, and Tillis less and less likely to significantly underperform Trump. Still a Tossup/Tilt R, though.
[/quote

Roy Cooper on the ballot will energize Dems to turnout for whomever Dems nominate. This seat hasnt elected a 2 term incumbent since Jesse Helms. Flipped from Dole to Hagen, Hagen to Tillis, and Tillis has to deal with Cooper and his popularity,  Dems will win AZ, CO, IA. ME and NC, at least 5 seats in a wave. Especially,  since Biden will be the nominee

[Vern]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

Hard to see how dems win NC but lose AZ (your prediction map)

[Vern]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

Hard to see how dems win NC but lose AZ (your prediction map)

Well, Tillis seat is Cursed.