NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[eb782]

Cal Cunningham, and Erica smith would both be good nominees that could beat Tillis.
they are  ideologically different but could both beat Tillis.

[JMT]

Businessman Garland Tucker dropped out of the Republican primary for Senate today:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article237961279.html

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Mark my words, Schumer blew this race by forcing Jackson aside

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

Hard to see how dems win NC but lose AZ (your prediction map)

All states don't vote in lockstep.... like... yall always try to compare what one state is going to do based off of another. LOL

[Frenchrepublican]

Tillis will lose, I can tell you that.

Hard to see how dems win NC but lose AZ (your prediction map)

All states don't vote in lockstep.... like... yall always try to compare what one state is going to do based off of another. LOL

Care to explain your point ?

Two reasons why NC is far more likely to flip than AZ
1. Trump will likely do better in NC than in AZ
2. Kelly is a far, far better candidate than Cunningham or Smith who have no appeal with center right voters

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I get that liberals don't like Tillis, but he's still much more likely to win, especially with the absolute s**t quality candidates up against him. Erica Smith is pretty hard left (and no, please don't compare Stacey Abrams to her because they are completely different) and Cal Cunningham is just...bad. I don't like Tillis very much, but Trump will carry NC and this seat is Tilt R, closer to Lean R than Tilt D.

[Galeel]

I get that liberals don't like Tillis, but he's still much more likely to win, especially with the absolute s**t quality candidates up against him. Erica Smith is pretty hard left (and no, please don't compare Stacey Abrams to her because they are completely different) and Cal Cunningham is just...bad. I don't like Tillis very much, but Trump will carry NC and this seat is Tilt R, closer to Lean R than Tilt D.

Candidate quality is mostly irrelevant. NC-Senate will go to whichever party wins NC-Pres.

[😥]

Mark my words, Schumer blew this race by forcing Jackson aside

Yea, Schumer is bad leader for Democrats in the Senate

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I get that liberals don't like Tillis, but he's still much more likely to win, especially with the absolute s**t quality candidates up against him. Erica Smith is pretty hard left (and no, please don't compare Stacey Abrams to her because they are completely different) and Cal Cunningham is just...bad. I don't like Tillis very much, but Trump will carry NC and this seat is Tilt R, closer to Lean R than Tilt D.

Candidate quality is mostly irrelevant. NC-Senate will go to whichever party wins NC-Pres.

Not always, but considering this is NC, probably true, in which case our rating should be lean R, not tilt or anything like that.

[Pollster]

Out with Tucker, in with Walker?

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1202604632293421056

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not that it matters, but I saw Erica Smith in person, and have changed my support to her. She is extremely qualified and perfectly capable of mounting a credible bid in this swing state. The only thing keeping her from being viable is money and having the favor of Chuck Schumer. She can mobilize the urban vote and still capitalize on Democratic gains in the suburbs. Hopefully she pulls an upset.

[Vern]

Not that it matters, but I saw Erica Smith in person, and have changed my support to her. She is extremely qualified and perfectly capable of mounting a credible bid in this swing state. The only thing keeping her from being viable is money and having the favor of Chuck Schumer. She can mobilize the urban vote and still capitalize on Democratic gains in the suburbs. Hopefully she pulls an upset.

I’m hoping the same thing.

[walleye26]

I don’t know Tillis that well-has he pulled a Ron Johnson and become a complete Trump hack? Or has he kept a decent reputation?

[Mr. Smith]

I don’t know Tillis that well-has he pulled a Ron Johnson and become a complete Trump hack? Or has he kept a decent reputation?

He was one of the earliest adopters, not much later than Jeff Sessions.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans are running ads for Erica Smith, touting her as "the only proven progressive in the race."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/north-carolina-republican-democratic-primary/index.html

[It’s so Joever]

Republicans are running ads for Erica Smith, touting her as "the only proven progressive in the race."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/north-carolina-republican-democratic-primary/index.html

Pulling a Mcaskill right there.

[SnowLabrador]

Republicans are running ads for Erica Smith, touting her as "the only proven progressive in the race."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/north-carolina-republican-democratic-primary/index.html

Pulling a Mcaskill right there.

I'm pretty progressive, but Cal Cunningham needs to win the primary. Smith is raising very little money.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t know Tillis that well-has he pulled a Ron Johnson and become a complete Trump hack? Or has he kept a decent reputation?

He was one of the earliest adopters, not much later than Jeff Sessions.

I thought Sessions was always pretty Trumpy.

[Suburbia]

Tillis will lose in November.

Cunningham 52%
Tillis 48%

D pickup

Democrats can pick up Burr's seat in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is a Bellwether,  in 2008, Dole lost her Senate race, in 2014, Tillis won in a route. Tillis was on the wrong side of impeachment and is on the wrong ticket when Cooper will win 55-45%

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I don’t know Tillis that well-has he pulled a Ron Johnson and become a complete Trump hack? Or has he kept a decent reputation?

He was one of the earliest adopters, not much later than Jeff Sessions.

I thought Sessions was always pretty Trumpy.

And Tillis was always a hack. He was the Speaker of the Uber-unpopular Republican Legislature. He only won because of the GOP-wave.

[Mr. Smith]

No idea if this is the correct thread, but Cunningham seems to be crushing it...though Smith has the lead in a few places in Eastern NC.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1235015895875022849

[SnowLabrador]

So it's officially Tillis vs. Cunningham. Not surprised, but it is exciting that it's now official.

[Jon Tester]

North Carolina Democrats are fired up.  Turnout was up around 17% compared to 2016.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485994-democratic-turnout-surges-on-super-tuesday