NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[LoneStarDem]

How long was Shuler in Congress & what's he been doing lately ?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Dang I did not know about Shuler, he looks like a good recruit. Sh!t, he is an energy lobbyist now.

[S019]

If he runs, he will win. Jackson is the perfect Democrat for NC. 

2014: Kay Hagan beat “strong candidate” Elizabeth Dole and outran Obama, also Tillis is a “very weak candidate,” Hagan will win re-election and probably be Senator for life

Again let’s not forget Tillis is no Elizabeth Dole, and Jackson is not Kay Hagan, he is about Erskine Bowles-tier, but will lose by 1-2, instead of 5-7, because NC is much more Democratic now, than it was in 2002 or 2004

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

[lfromnj]

How long was Shuler in Congress & what's he been doing lately ?

He was in congress from 06 to 10 and left coz the GOP changed the map from a D gerrymander to an R one and removed Asheville. FYI he did survive 2010.

[S019]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

I don’t think NC is a done deal, Tillis is certainly not Elizabeth Dole, Kay Hagan was a strong candidate who outran Obama by a significant margin and only narrowly lost in a red wave. Tillis himself had to be a strong candidate to topple her, while he is overrated, he is not Elizabeth Dole. Also in AZ, I just do not see many Trump-Kelly voters, if Trump loses AZ, McSally’a done. Also in CO, Gardner is not doomed, and could beat someone like Neguse

[OneJ]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

I don’t think NC is a done deal, Tillis is certainly not Elizabeth Dole, Kay Hagan was a strong candidate who outran Obama by a significant margin and only narrowly lost in a red wave. Tillis himself had to be a strong candidate to topple her, while he is overrated, he is not Elizabeth Dole. Also in AZ, I just do not see many Trump-Kelly voters, if Trump loses AZ, McSally’a done. Also in CO, Gardner is not doomed, and could beat someone like Neguse

I mean TN didn’t even say that NC is a done deal. He was just simply pointing out that NC, along with CO and AZ, are the easiest pickup opportunities for the Democrats which I so happen to agree.

Also, I do think that there’s a good chance Trump might lose AZ. Probably not north of 50%, but certainly not 0% either. But yes, McSally is doomed should Trump lose it.

Last, but not least, Gardner’s chances at this point are still very slim. In a neutral environment, which we largely expect for 2020, most Democrats even those like Neguse are still more poised to defeat Gardner than not.

[lfromnj]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

Yeah getting to 49 is the easier part and then they crash into a brick wall where they need one of MT/TX/GA/ME/IA where those are all at least Lean R as of now. Dems probably need A-list challengers in each of these states to have a good shot of winning

In GA/TX a B list challenger could be carried by a wave if the D nominee for president wins the two states.

MT/ME/IA all have some form of incumbency advantage for the R candidate compared to TX/GA which at best is around 2-3 points. Mt itself is already too R anyway for the D candidate for president to win.

[Zaybay]

Democrats can easily get to 49 with AZ/CO/NC (-AL), but getting to 50 will be the challenge. It’s why they need Bullock to run for MT-SEN.

Yeah getting to 49 is the easier part and then they crash into a brick wall where they need one of MT/TX/GA/ME/IA where those are all at least Lean R as of now. Dems probably need A-list challengers in each of these states to have a good shot of winning

There is a flipside to this, however. If the Ds can get a good national environment, or get some A tier candidates or Dark Swan events in these seats(Collins chooses to retire), then the Ds can gain a rather sizable amount of seats.

[HarrisonL]

Lean R, Jackson is not a strong candidate, he is a decent candidate and a hotshot. Trump will narrowly carry Tillis here, but make no mistake it will be competitive, and Jackson may be our "new Kay Hagan" on a weak bench,

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, Jackson is not a strong candidate, he is a decent candidate and a hotshot. Trump will narrowly carry Tillis here, but make no mistake it will be competitive, and Jackson may be our "new Kay Hagan" on a weak bench,

This will be targetted, once Jackson announces.

[Pollster]

Tillis draws Senate primary challenge from wealthy Raleigh businessman Garland Tucker

[Continential]

Tillis draws Senate primary challenge from wealthy Raleigh businessman Garland Tucker

I think that Tucker will lose by around 30 points I guess.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

[Yang2020]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Tossup race.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Lean R--->Tilt R

But whoever emerges from the primary, her or Jackson will be damaged and should give Tillis An advantage, of course Jackson could pull a Ruben Gallego, and opt out of a competitive primary, or he was writing a speech that he wasn't running at all.

Anyway, looking forward to the brutal Democratic Senate primary in North Carolina

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Yeet!

[JG]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

She did significantly outperform Obama both in 2008 and 2012 and the candidates for governor in 2008 and 2012 she ran slightly ahead of Kay Hagan in 2008. Sounds like a good candidate to me.

[LoneStarDem]

What are her chances of knocking out Tillis ?

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

It's because everyone expected Stein or Jackson, but still a good recruit, and not one that I have heard linked to Schumer, so the recruitment failure in NC did not materialize, but Schumer should tell Jackson "never mind," if he wants to avoid a brutal primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

She was also extremely popular when she left office if memory serves.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Given her record, I’m surprised no one on here brought her up if my memory serves correctly.

She was also extremely popular when she left office if memory serves.

I guarantee less than 10% of people can name their state’s treasurer

Just sayin'

[aaroncd107]

I still feel remarkably pessimistic about North Carolina politics and while it's easy for me to imagine pretty much any serious Democratic nominee (Cowell included) losing by, say, a 50.1 to 47.5 margin, my gut just doesn't let me picture anyone other than Jeff Jackson winning outright.

Jackson has never won any competitive race... not even a tough primary. Cowell has won statewide, twice.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cullenbrowder/status/1126574163311960064

Lean R--->Tilt R

But whoever emerges from the primary, her or Jackson will be damaged and should give Tillis An advantage, of course Jackson could pull a Ruben Gallego, and opt out of a competitive primary, or he was writing a speech that he wasn't running at all.

Anyway, looking forward to the brutal Democratic Senate primary in North Carolina

Jackson would be the stronger candidate IMO.  But it won't be brutal from Jackson's side.  He will not go negative on a primary opponent.  (as evidence...Look a little into the process of him winning the Dem appointment to run for the State Senate special election. I think he really is genuinely a class act).